So, are there really only about 800 COVID cases in the USA?

[USALiberal]

Current number is 793.

Seems like with testing kits becoming available, this should be increasing by more than 100 per day.

I thought for every infected person, they can spread it to 2 or 3 others.

The number infected must be much higher.

[LonePirate]

1. I suspect it is closer to 80000 than it is to 800.

The virus has been circulating for weeks.

[Native]

5. Since January

[lapfog_1]

2. No... there are at LEAST 5000+ cases

we just don't know it yet.

Maybe 10,000... or more

[dewsgirl]

7. Co-sign..here to back you up, when someone inevitably comes

along to dispute this.

[lapfog_1]

14. Thanks... but I am a scientist... not an MD or epidemiologist

but I have a fair idea about this subject. At the very least I have a mathematics background. The math says I am right... the experience other countries have gone through say I'm right. Only the idiots trying to pretend this isn't happening (mostly at the top of the federal government right now) would say "we know you are wrong".

Honestly, I would love to be wrong. I would love to believe there are only 800 cases in the US right now and this is no worse than the flu... blah blah blah.

But I'm not.

[dewsgirl]

16. I wish you were wrong as well. I have

watched as the virus methodically has spread across the globe, and have seen how other countries have been dealing with it. We are practically mirroring Iran's strategy, at least in the beginning...

[USALiberal]

17. But deaths would be hard to hide, and it is only 28 so far....

Unless it takes a couple of weeks to be fatal.

[Ms. Toad]

29. 2-3 weeks.

And just today there was a case diagnosed the same day as the associated death.

The median time from first symptom to death was 14 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#days

[USALiberal]

31. OK, that explains it!! Thanks as always! nt

[Wellstone ruled]

21. You might be right as to a realistic count as of today.

This virus seems to have grown into a viral Spore with a longer life span over the last couple of weeks.

Next week at this time that might be a moot point. A major Storm is just now crawling out of California on it's way to the Middle of the country with a major wind event included. Above normal Temps mixed with above normal rain is a perfect incubator for the Cold and Flu season to get going. Looks like this storm has all of these factors.

[Pobeka]

24. I'm with you. Off by 10x.

The USA's inability to learn from other countries' experience is devestating.

[Marrah_Goodman]

28. Until we have a R0 number it's impossible to predict

And until people start getting tested in large numbers we won't have a clue as to that number. I do think it is much higher then anyone knows.

[uppityperson]

3. That's what you get when there aren't facilities to test or process in a timely manner

[flying_wahini]

4. My guess is that there are at least 2000+ in the US alone.

But several test kits from the early batch were deemed inconclusive.

[Native]

6. Experts have been saying it's more like 20,000 based on modeling

But that was a couple of days ago, and the numbers grow exponentially. Lots of respected sources have done modeling, and this # seems to be the best guess as of today.

[dewsgirl]

8. Yes..all across the nation.😔

[USALiberal]

11. So shouldn't the deaths be closer to 500? Unless those are not reported. Nt

[Big Blue Marble]

18. Many are in early stages and not yet if ever in crisis.

Only about 15 to 20% will go on to need to seek medical care. Crisis often is only after
a period of incubation (average 5-7 days) then up to a week of flu symptoms.

Let's see where we are in two to three weeks; we will know a lot more then.

[USALiberal]

19. Thanks for the info!! nt

[Native]

25. Not reported. Ratios vary too. Depends on lots of factors.

[Javaman]

9. many more. so many people don't want to go to the doc fearful of what the cost will be...

especially those who certainly can't afford it or don't have insurance.

and given our shitting workers rights in this country, many of those same people are working sick because they don't have a choice; spreading the virus further.

[enki23]

10. Don't you think it's odd how well spread out all those few cases are?

Most all the states have some. We surely did spread those few cases around well. Funny.

[TygrBright]

13. Currently, my State, New Mexico, is showing zero cases.

I would be ASTOUNDED if that were true.

We have a major airport in Albuquerque. All it takes is one asymptomatic carrier to get off their flight at gate A-9, walk through the main concourse, stop for a coffee at the food court, browse a moment at the newsstand, walk to their connecting flight gate B-6, sit in the waiting area with other passengers until their flight is called, stand in the boarding line and hand their boarding pass or phone to the check-in attendant, and how many people have been exposed?

And those people are likely to be asymptomatic for 5-6 days, going about their normal business, potentially transmitting the pathogen to how many others?

Oh, yes, we have cases here.

There are as yet none diagnosed and confirmed by testing, but they are here.

Multiply that by as many places as there are airports, train stations, mass transit, etc.

We definitely have more than 800 cases in the U.S.

certainly,
Bright

[USALiberal]

15. Thanks! Nt

[stillcool]

20. kind of hard to count test results..

without the tests. I don't know if the parameters for being 'eligible' for a test have changed, if more tests have been provided by private companies and indivduals..like Bill Gates in Washington State, and I don't know what the CDC is reporting. So...who the eff knows? Looking at other countries, the results in no way match ours. Like Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, or Katrina in New Orleans, or how many Iraqi's were killed, we will never know. We don't do numbers very well.

[TheFarseer]

22. I bet

A lot of people are not reporting because they don’t want to be quarantined.

[Pobeka]

26. A terrifying, and sad truth. n/t

[uponit7771]

30. +1

[Bayard]

23. There was one case in Kentucky yesterday( a Walmart employee),

Today, there are six.

I'm thinking I'm going to head out tomorrow to do some stocking up....

[Tommy_Carcetti]

27. Wasn't it Trump who last week claimed that there were only 15 and soon to be zero?

Oh, Donald, Donald, Donald.

[Raine]

32. Hopefully 🤞

this number is correct.

[Dem2]

33. We did see +272 cases today

976 now