The coronavirus math ... I hope I am wrong.

[Botany]

The coronavirus math … I hope I am wrong.

330,000,000 people (US population) x .40 (40 % infection rate … low end) x .03 (3% lethality rate) = 3,960,000 deaths …. my best guess

Again this is subjective on my part.

[dewsgirl]

1. You are spot on..unfortunately.

[Botany]

3. I used the lowest figures too.

40 to 70% infection rate

3 to 4% mortality rate Italy is at 3.8%

[dewsgirl]

9. I know, I have seen the figures a thousand times.😔

[getagrip_already]

18. and importantly as shown in Italy....

Hospitalization rates for serious respiratory issues is 14%.

We don't have that many hospital beds, let alone ICU beds.

[riversedge]

2. where does the 40% infection rate come from??

[Botany]

4. The infection rate for those exposed is 40 to 70%

n/t

[Tommy_Carcetti]

10. Are you assuming then that every American will be exposed to the virus at some point?

Honest open question.

[Botany]

19. I am sure some people will not get exposed to the virus but then again ...

... we have many unanswered questions about the disease, its microbiology, and how long it can
live outside a living body. Not to worry because Mike Pence is on it.

[onenote]

43. 3700 people were on the Diamond Princess

They were all tested. Around 700 tested positive and of those around 400 were asymptomatic. Seven of those who contracted the virus on the ship died. That's a 19 percent infection rate and a 1 percent fatality rate.

The 40 percent infection rate is almost certainly overstated. And the 3 percent fatality rate, considering that more than half of those infected are likely to be asymptomatic also is likely an overestimate.

[riversedge]

52. I did not know that. Thanks for info.

[Dem2]

11. Some epidemiologist estimated 40-70% of people will be infected.

Found the source here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-infection-outbreak-worldwide-virus-expert-warning-today-2020-03-02/

[NewDayOranges]

5. You should have done your calculating with

Common Core math... 😃

[caraher]

6. I think this is a bit high

The arithmetic is correct, but I don't think there will be a 3% fatality rate associated with a 40% infection rate. The current fatality rate is skewed high because many more people are infected than confirmed to be infected.

Still, a similar but more optimistic calculation I saw yielded almost 100 million infected, 10 million hospitalizations and a half million deaths. I think we'll wind up between that figure and yours.

[Big Blue Marble]

35. You are assuming that every critical case is treated.

From the numbers coming out of Italy, it looks like the their health care system is overwhelmed.
Many older people who are critical are not being treated in ICU's or even given breathing support
of any kind Also, patients with other critical needs are not attended and are dying.

I only pray you are correct. The death rate can be much higher if our system unravels as Lombardy's
has. And it is considered to be one of the world's best in a very prosperous region of Italy.

[Girard442]

54. The true infection rate in unknown because very few asymptomatic people are being tested.

The rates we *do* have a handle on are how many people become symptomatic, how many of those require extraordinary measures, and how many die. Those numbers are grim.

[defacto7]

7. What really gets me is that the lethality is not only affected by the

action of the virus but by our ability to treat the disease. If we don't have proper facilities, medicine, or health workers the lethality will be higher than we could otherwise prevent.

[Dem2]

14. Unfortunately

RE: Italy

[mercuryblues]

57. Lookat South Korea

They have an aggressive approach to testing. so they are finding those who are asymptomatic and treating/quarantine them.

They also have a low mortality rate of .6

My question is … is the widespread testing keeping the mortality rate low, or does the testing find and enable treating cases before they advance keep the mortality rate low?

[DrToast]

16. Yep

Everyone likes to say that the fatality rate is probably lower because many people may get it and don’t get sick. But sadly, the fatality rate could be HIGHER if we can’t treat everyone that needs it. That’s what is happening in northern Italy. People that might have survived with medical care are dying.

[Big Blue Marble]

37. And by mitigation.

When the disease is slowed, the medical system is not overwhelmed. When it is left to
spread as it has been here, there will be overwhelming demand early that will not keep
up with number of cases meaning more will die. We only have about 75K respirators in the
country and most of them are currently in use.

[DrToast]

8. If we can't flatten the curve...

...the fatality rate could be much higher.

The 2-3% fatality rates assume sick people are treated and many people require hospitalization in order to recover. If we can’t treat everyone....well.... let’s just hope that doesn’t happen.

[Big Blue Marble]

39. It is apparently happening in Italy right now! N/T

[Jarqui]

12. And the high side

330,000,000 people (US population) x .80(80% infection rate … low end) x .034 (3.4% mortality rate) = 8,976,000 deaths …. high end/worst case guess

That is about 3,015 times worse than the 2,977 lost on 9/11

based on what we've seen in the media so far ...

The range is not that far off what the Germans expect
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213069033

Hopefully, we do much better than the low estimate

That doesn't include deaths from lack of health care because so many healthcare workers got ill/die, the system overloaded and supplies depleted such that timely effective care could not occur for other illnesses

[mwooldri]

13. Apparently Covid-19 will hit the oldest the hardest.

So the infection and death rate will skew older...

[bigbrother05]

15. Infection/Mortality rates work in GOP states that think it's a hoax

Dem states will likely be more proactive and take measures that will reduce exposure, therefore infection rates. Should also see a better early response to provide care for those affected that should reduce the mortality rate as well.

If that holds, the reality that Dems hold larger states, we can hope to have a lower the impact by at least half over your calculations.

Still not cheerful, but we can save ourselves as this WH sure isn't helping much.

[Wellstone ruled]

17. Have to agree with

your math and final answer. The next ten days will be the real test.

[zipplewrath]

20. 0.4%

Once China figured out what they were dealing and how to treat it, the fatality rate dropped to about 0.4%. That's still 4 times the rate for ordinary influenza.

[TwilightZone]

23. Agreed. SK's is around 0.6% with high levels of testing.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13064369

[Botany]

26. I think regular flu the death rate is .1% 4% is 40 times higher

But then again i could be wrong.

[TwilightZone]

27. 0.4%, not 4%.

South Korea has also tested a lot of people, and theirs was 0.6% a few days ago.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13064369

[Big Blue Marble]

40. And right now Italy is at 6%.

It is far too soon to tell, but we are looking more like Italy and less like SK.
We can only hope that changes

[zipplewrath]

48. They got hit early.

They got caught off guard somewhat. They, like China, are playing catch up. That will probably fall soon.

[zipplewrath]

28. 4 tenths of one percent

That's not 4%, that's 0.4%. China reached that level once they understood how to treat it.

[GemDigger]

38. Yes but China is ONLY counting hospital deaths. Those that died on the streets or

at home are not being counted. That changes those numbers dramatically.

[Croney]

21. There are 12 states that don't have a single case yet.

(Or, maybe they do, but nobody is reporting.)

This seems of interest when doing calculations and making predictions. I don't know enough to say whether its importance is above zero or not.

[TwilightZone]

22. Mortality rate is probably wrong.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13064369

[DrToast]

33. The mortality rate will depend on whether we can treat everyone

[eleny]

24. This is why we're sheltering at home

Over 60, some chronic illness that has to be taken seriously.

I started shopping as soon as it hit Washington State. And that wasn't early enough because the hand sani shelf only had four bottles left on that first shopping trip. But other things like tp and tuna were plentiful. So little by little I shopped over the course of several days. By the time it escalated we were ready.

I canceled a couple of personal appointments as did the hubby. Yesterday I secured exemption from my jury duty next week.

Luckily we like our home and have plenty to do around here. I'm diving into organization mode. Our pantry/utility closet is deep, wide and messy. So I'm planning to empty it out and reorganize. That helps to keep my eyeballs off the tv and in a better place at least temporarily. DU is another story.

I don't think you're exaggerating at all given how badly the federal administration is approaching this emergency.

[GoneOffShore]

25. I just ran across this account of the 1918 influenza in Philadelphia.

https://daily.jstor.org/the-1918-parade-that-spread-death-in-philadelphia/

It was attached to a story about how Philadelphia is not planning on cancelling the St. Patrick's Day parade.

[Botany]

29. We still have idiots trying to push post season basketball tournaments w/fans in attendance

I loves me some March Madness but 1 non symptomatic fan @ the game could lead to
a cascade of new cases.

[not_the_one]

30. I just re-watched CONTAGION.

It was made in 2011.

Although a different scenario, it WAS a virus that was spread by touch.

Funny the similarities about touching your face. We touch our face about 1000 times per day.

Also the conspiracies that the "powers that be" were trying to make sure that profits could be made off the cure...

It resulted in a total breakdown of society.

Scary stuff.

[GoneOffShore]

50. Read 'The Great Influenza' by John Barry

A friend in Philadelphia just posted the following:

Why are so many classes and large events being cancelled? Because the corona virus is highly contagious. The 1918 "Spanish" flu had an R value in the 1.4-2.8 range - every infected person spread it to 1.4 to 2.8 other people (the historical record doesn't permit a more precise calculation). Today's corona virus has an estimated R value of 2.2 - almost exactly in the middle of the 1918 flu's range. That suggests it's similarly contagious to the 1918 flu.

Why does that matter? Because today we have much-improved medical care - but that's POST-infection care. So while *deaths* from corona virus will likely be far lower than from the 1918 flu, if we make the same stupid mistakes that we made back then - like going ahead with the St. Patrick's Day parade - *infections* could be just as widespread even if deaths are not.

And if too many cases hit at once - again because of unforced errors like "let's go ahead with the parade" - then the capacity of our medical system will temporarily be exceeded, causing more deaths.

With a link to the following abstract.



https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582?fbclid=IwAR2rfMdHa_uWGQtv1gXlPBdcqq-lsZn3hHuxYTwWbgSjC16RScpBDxieJSY


And on a lighter note:

[PSPS]

31. Your hope came true. You are wrong.

The "3% lethality rate" is too high. It's too early to tell what it really is. Why? Because we don't have an accurate denominator and won't until many more tests are done. All epidemics work this way. The initial view is of those who are very sick. It doesn't include those who may have recovered on their own because of only minor symptoms, were unaware they were sick, or were otherwise never tested.

The real experts I pay attention to (i.e., CDC, WHO,) who have actual experience in past epidemics expect this mortality rate to end up being well under 1% -- higher for at-risk people like the elderly and lower for younger people.

Of course, this isn't meant to downplay the severity of what we're dealing with. But it's important to keep from going overboard.

[Botany]

42. Italy's #s

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/live-blog/coronavirus-updates-live-u-s-europe-brace-infection-spread-italy-n1153801

The coronavirus outbreak has continued to rattle Italy, which extended the containment measures already in place in northern regions to the entire country, which has confirmed more than 10,140 cases. The death toll in the country stands at more than 630 people.

630/10,140 = .0621 or 6.2% Now we don't know about the age and or health of the populations that got
the disease and what kind of medical help they got or ????

[PSPS]

46. "confirmed more than 10,140 cases." That's the problem.

Right now, it is usually only those with severe symptoms who seek help that get tested. We do not how many unknown cases of infection there are. It will be some time before we know but, over time, the numbers will become more accurate and, thus, meaningful.

[Botany]

47. spot on!

"It will be some time before we know but, over time, the numbers will become more accurate and, thus, meaningful."

[DrToast]

49. Regardless

They’re not able to treat everyone, so we know the fatality rate is going to be much higher than in South Korea.

[PSPS]

51. No, we know no such thing.

I'm not picking on you but it's important to deal with actual facts especially in a subject that can trigger panic in people. We have no accurate mortality rate for Coronavirus anywhere in the world at this point in time and we won't really know for some time yet. Actual medical experts at CDC, WHO, John Hopkins, etc., (i.e., not Facebook, Youtube or even here on DU) who have been through epidemics many times, make it very clear that early statistics are always wildly inaccurate and that, as more people are tested (i.e., not just people sick enough to seek out testing,) mortality rates go down.

[DrToast]

59. Dude, they're not treating everyone in Italy

It’s not controversial to say that treating people saves lives.

[Turbineguy]

32. But then there's China

where the epidemic is slowing rapidly and they are now worried about importing infections.

Also, many people are working on a cure and a vaccine.

[Warpy]

36. The only thing wrong with your math is coming out of S. Korea

where they have done the large scale testing this country refuses to do. They have caught the mild and sub clinical cases that will all be missed here and in other countries and come up with a lethality rate of about 1%.

That means "only" 3.3 million will die from this thing, most of them annoying old crocks like me.

Our system is so badly broken that we're going to have to look to other countries for our realistic information and possible projections. I doubt our death rate will be as low as S. Korea's death rate because too many of us will be neglected to death by a government that hasn't cared for its people for many decades. Early and appropriate health care is unaffordable for many and non existent for many more, a product of the conservative conviction that poor people will abuse the system if you don't saddle them with high deductibles and multiple copays.

However, for most of us, this disease will be nasty but survivable.

[Jarqui]

41. We don't know for sure but this is a factor

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/opinions/osterholm-coronavirus-interview-bergen/index.html

Smoking likely played a big role in the increased risk of this demographic dying from coronavirus. We see the same trend with influenza in our own country.
Of note, only a small percentage of older women in China smoke, meaning they were much less at risk for serious disease.

We're concerned about the occurrence of other risk factors for severe disease as this virus moves out into other parts of the world. For example, one of the risk factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome, or ARDS -- the most severe of the outcomes of COVID-19 infection -- is obesity. In parts of the world, including the US, where obesity is an epidemic problem, its likely we may see a different case fatality rate than we're seeing in China; that is, US fatalities may be less gender-specific and the rate of fatalities could be even higher than it is in China due to higher obesity rates among people 45 years or older.
...
In the US -- and in other upper and middle-income countries -- we may expect to see a case fatality rate equal to or higher to what we see in China.

US is 12th in obesity worldwide
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/most-obese-countries/

And it ties in that obese people more often have high blood pressure, diabetes, breathing problems - other risk factors cited as more dangerous when combined with this virus.

[matt819]

44. Lots of assumptions

Lots of assumptions, but you know that.

The problem, of course, is that with the CDC and NIH emasculated, we don't have reliable data. Data, yes. Reliable, no.

Testing is sporadic at best, and assertions that a million test kits will be sent out by the end of the week is not credible. And from what I've read test kits have more than one test, but it takes multiple tests to confirm the virus and then more multiple tests to confirm recovery. Testing mortality is a lot easier.

Then. . . who gets tested? Who pays for the testing. For example, if I can expect to be out $3,000 if my insurance company doesn't cover it, you can be pretty damn sure I'm not going to go to the hospital to confirm until I'm probably beyond help. (I'm fine now, by the way.)

And the mortality rate. Until we have an accurate picture of how many are infected and how many are recovered we just don't know what the mortality rate is/will be and will have to count on epidemiologists and mathematicians for this info. And they can't be from the government because they can't be trusted. And the academics and medical professionals may not have accurate data. I can't believe this shit, can you? So, right now the mortality rate shows at 3.5% in the US (and around that in Italy, for that matter). As your arithmetic confirms, that's awful (though as someone observed in another post the other day, I can't be trusted to comment on arithmetic).

Has anyone yet calculated the cost to the US economy? Not only in the stock market but in communities hard hit, in medical costs/care, etc.?

All in all, though, these are numbers worth staying on top of. In that respect, last night at 11:05 EDT pm, the number of confirmed cases was 113,710 world wide, 709 in the US (Johns Hopkins site). Just now, those numbers are 118,099 and 808, increases over less than 24 hours of 2.4% and 13.9% respectively. Seems to me like pretty serious exponential growth.

[Botany]

45. Italy went from 2 or 3 cases in early Feb. to 7,800 yesterday

I am sure any decent epidemiologist could find fault with my math and science but you
are right we just don't know or have seen the data.

[dewsgirl]

53. Hey did you see this?👀

Link to tweet

?s=20

[BernieBabies]

55. 3% mortality rate is probably a little high

Until all have been tested, but I think 1% is conservative and your infection rate is quite possible. Still huge number of deaths.

[sarisataka]

56. China's math

1.3 billion people/ 80000 cases= .006% infection rate.

Applied to the US-
To allow for a less draconian response in the US, we can multiply the rate by 10.

330,000,000 people (US population) x .00006 (infection rate) x 10 (fudge factor) x .03 (3% lethality rate) = 5,940

Still no walk in the park but not to the point we will burn piles of bodies in the streets

[applegrove]

58. Why social distancing is important so the spread of the coronavirus

slows down the number of people in hospital at one time slows down. Wash your hands. Wash your hands and don't touch your face. And only go out if you have to like for groceries.

[tandem5]

60. You can't cherry pick mortality rate nor average it between countries...

without some sort of weighting, when the number of tested per capita is so wildly different. South Korea has tested around 3700 per one million people and has a reported case mortality of about 0.8%. For reference the US has tested about 5 per one million. So the quality of a South Korean CMR of 0.8% is vastly superior to a US 3+%. Put another way, it's far less likely that South Korean's numbers are further from reality than the US numbers are closer (note that that's not a comment on what the CMR or overall mortality rate might actually be).

[Botany]

61. I didn't cherry pick the mortality rate.

Last edited Wed Mar 11, 2020, 09:37 AM - Edit history (2)

The new disease, called COVID-19, has a fatality rate of around 3.4%, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed on Tuesday. That's an uptick from previous estimates — a recent study from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention found a fatality rate of 2.3% among more than 44,000 confirmed coronavirus patients.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-deadly-is-novel-wuhan-coronavirus-2020-2