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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCoronavirus cases could reach 64,000 in Washington state by May, governor says
CNBC
TUE, MAR 10 20203:30 PM EDT UPDATED MOMENTS AGO
Key Points:
Washington state COVID-19 cases could reach 64,000 by May if health officials and the public fail to take action to stop the spread now, Gov. Jay Inslee said Tuesday.
The Evergreen State has 162 confirmed coronavirus cases across eight counties as of Monday night, but infectious disease experts say the actual number could be closer to 1,000 or more, he said.
The Evergreen State has at least 162 confirmed coronavirus cases across eight counties as of Monday night, but infectious disease experts say the actual number could be closer to 1,000 or more, Inslee said at a press conference.
He said public health officials have not tested all 7.5 million residents in the state, and experts believe there are many, many other people today in Washington state who have the virus but dont have symptoms and havent been diagnosed yet.
If we assume there are 1,000 or more people who have the virus today, what the experts are telling us, in an epidemic like this, looking at the characteristics of this virus, people who are infected will double anywhere from five to eight days, he said. If you do that math, it gets very disturbing.
When something doubles every day, it gets to a very large number very quickly. If there are 1,000 people infected today, in seven or eight weeks, there could be 64,000 people infected in the state of Washington, he said.
Inslee declared a state of emergency last month after the state reported its first death from the virus a man in his 50s from King County with underlying health conditions.
More here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-cases-could-reach-64000-in-washington-state-by-may-governor-says.html
This seems to be in general line with calculations DUers have been making. It's really astounding how serious this is getting.
We're getting down to the nuts and bolts of this thing now.
unc70
(6,109 posts)Will peak somewhere in there
rockfordfile
(8,695 posts)Ms. Toad
(33,992 posts)New York and California are less than a week behind Washington (with doubling every 6 days or so)
DrToast
(6,414 posts)1. It could be. WA might just be a few days ahead of the rest of the country.
2. There is some theories that it spreads easier in certain climates. This is not at all proven yet, but its possible. Look at the map on the page here: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/on-covid-19-seasonality.html?m=1
Wounded Bear
(58,598 posts)Ms. Toad
(33,992 posts)Math no one here was willing to listen to yesterday (even though all I was asking for was a proactive educational campaig - it might scare students) - and suddenly we closed campus on less than an hour's notice (with no advance warning to faculty or staff so we could answer the questions our students had for us.)