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Mike 03

(16,616 posts)
Tue Mar 10, 2020, 04:32 PM Mar 2020

Coronavirus cases could reach 64,000 in Washington state by May, governor says

CNBC
TUE, MAR 10 20203:30 PM EDT UPDATED MOMENTS AGO

Key Points:

Washington state COVID-19 cases could reach 64,000 by May if health officials and the public fail to take action to stop the spread now, Gov. Jay Inslee said Tuesday.

The Evergreen State has 162 confirmed coronavirus cases across eight counties as of Monday night, but infectious disease experts say the actual number could be closer to 1,000 or more, he said.

Washington state COVID-19 cases could reach 64,000 by May if health officials and the public aren’t able to contain the outbreak now, Gov. Jay Inslee said Tuesday.

The Evergreen State has at least 162 confirmed coronavirus cases across eight counties as of Monday night, but infectious disease experts say the actual number could be closer to 1,000 or more, Inslee said at a press conference.

He said public health officials have not tested all 7.5 million residents in the state, and experts believe there are “many, many other people today in Washington state” who have the virus but don’t have symptoms and haven’t been diagnosed yet.

“If we assume there are 1,000 or more people who have the virus today, what the experts are telling us, in an epidemic like this, looking at the characteristics of this virus, people who are infected will double anywhere from five to eight days,” he said. “If you do that math, it gets very disturbing.”

“When something doubles every day, it gets to a very large number very quickly. If there are 1,000 people infected today, in seven or eight weeks, there could be 64,000 people infected in the state of Washington,” he said.

Inslee declared a state of emergency last month after the state reported its first death from the virus — a man in his 50s from King County with underlying health conditions.


More here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-cases-could-reach-64000-in-washington-state-by-may-governor-says.html

This seems to be in general line with calculations DUers have been making. It's really astounding how serious this is getting.

We're getting down to the nuts and bolts of this thing now.
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Coronavirus cases could reach 64,000 in Washington state by May, governor says (Original Post) Mike 03 Mar 2020 OP
And 500k+ by June unc70 Mar 2020 #1
K&R BeckyDem Mar 2020 #2
Why is that not happening in other places? rockfordfile Mar 2020 #3
It is - and will be. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #6
Two possibilities DrToast Mar 2020 #7
That's just basic math...nt Wounded Bear Mar 2020 #4
Yup. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #5

Ms. Toad

(33,992 posts)
6. It is - and will be.
Tue Mar 10, 2020, 07:55 PM
Mar 2020

New York and California are less than a week behind Washington (with doubling every 6 days or so)

DrToast

(6,414 posts)
7. Two possibilities
Tue Mar 10, 2020, 07:56 PM
Mar 2020

1. It could be. WA might just be a few days ahead of the rest of the country.

2. There is some theories that it spreads easier in certain climates. This is not at all proven yet, but it’s possible. Look at the map on the page here: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/03/on-covid-19-seasonality.html?m=1

Ms. Toad

(33,992 posts)
5. Yup.
Tue Mar 10, 2020, 07:52 PM
Mar 2020

Math no one here was willing to listen to yesterday (even though all I was asking for was a proactive educational campaig - it might scare students) - and suddenly we closed campus on less than an hour's notice (with no advance warning to faculty or staff so we could answer the questions our students had for us.)

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