3-10 DU corona virus tracking report.

[Eko]

I am tracking the corona virus daily in our country.
Just some simple stuff, dates and how many cases. I did it to see at what rate it is rising in the US. I will try to post results every night. Just be aware there are a lot of normal reasons for the infection rate to be so high or for it to jump or fall by a lot. Lots of people could be getting tested and millions of other reasons. This is not to scare anyone but just to inform us.
I am getting the numbers from here. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[Squinch]

1. Its a 59% jump. Its 59% higher today than yesterday.

[USALiberal]

2. You are correct!

[Squinch]

5. But I wasn't! I corrected it.

Its (959-605)/605.

So its 59%

[Ms. Toad]

3. Likely due to an increased availability of test kits.

If it hasn't been tested, it can't be reported so there's a backlog.

That said, yesterday was an anomaly (abnormally low, given the curve since March 3.

[USALiberal]

7. USA was 704 yesterday and 975 today. A 38% increase, nt

[Squinch]

8. I was working with the ops numbers.

[Eko]

9. I am taking my numbers from here.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I put the time I checked and recorded the numbers to help also.

[Quixote1818]

4. It doesn't seem to be exponential yet or am I missing something?

Shouldn't it be doubling every few days? Can someone run the current math? Seemed like it started off doing that and now has slowed.

[Squinch]

6. Its doubling every 3 days. That gets us to 157,000,000 by the end of next month.

Thats about half the population.

[Quixote1818]

10. Thanks. I meant world wide

Today it went up 5,000 yesterday and the day before were around 4,000.

[Squinch]

11. It looks like China has it relatively under control. But its just beginning to

go nuts in the rest of the world.

[Igel]

12. And that's the problem with projections.

If you'd run the projection for China last month, it would have been wrong because the projection assumes no changes on the ground for the length of the projection and on all contacts being random.

Even in Washington, the results rest on an unusual circumstance, violating the randomness requirement.