Number of U.S. coronavirus deaths will depend on how many older people are exposed

[left-of-center2012]

“Everyone over 60 should become a hermit for a month,” Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, texted me. In China, 22 percent of Chinese patients over age 80 have died, according to WHO figures.

The next few weeks are critical for how broadly the virus will ultimately spread in the United States, as governments, workplaces, schools and other institutions across the nation cancel mass gatherings and take steps to keep people away from one another as much as possible.

Former Centers for Disease Control Director Tom Frieden has projected that deaths in the U.S. could range widely – from 327 deaths to 1.6 million deaths – depending on rate of infection and how lethal it proves to be, my colleagues Joel Achenbach, William Wan and Lena H. Sun report. “Frieden…says that in a worst-case scenario, but one that is not implausible, half the U.S. population would become infected and more than 1 million people would die,” they write.

Farzad Mostashari, who coordinated health information technology under the Obama administration, told me it’s “reasonable to assume” the coronavirus outbreak could cause far more casualties than the 1957 bird flu, if left unchecked. He figures that if 2.5 percent of the U.S. population were to become infected, that would include about 1.5 million seniors. If the fatality rate for this population is about 20 percent, that could result in 300,000 deaths.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/03/12/the-health-202-number-of-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-will-depend-on-how-many-older-people-are-exposed/5e69079a88e0fa101a7469a2/

[LisaL]

1. Our retirement age is what, 65?

Those who are not of retirement age, how exactly are they going to stay hermits? They are not retired, so they have to work. It would be hard for them to find a new job if they get fired for now showing up because they are staying hermit.

[Nature Man]

4. My retirement age is DEATH

will always need to work.

[lapfog_1]

2. I did so a week ago

and I hope I can do it for 2 months with maybe 2 more trips for medications... and I will try to be very very careful on those trips. But I found after self quarantine for 5 days now... I am going through my stash of supplies faster than I thought.

[beachbumbob]

3. commonsense says older people more at risk, younger people with health issues as well

Italy making hard decisions based on age on who gets treat as expected and we could easily see the same here as our system is badly over run

[duforsure]

5. No, it'll be dependent on,

If this administration keeps lying to the American people instead of telling us the truth about this, and right now they have zero credibility they'll do that. Trump lies so much no one trusts him, especially Wall Street as we're watching the markets tank.

[left-of-center2012]

6. Senior citizens are at a higher risk than younger patients from dying with the virus

Especially those, like me, who have medical conditions.
I'm 73, with diabetes, high blood pressure, and a heart condition.

Saying "No, it'll be dependent on ..."
doesn't make it less true that senior citizens are at a higher risk ~ and scary.