Last three days, cases increased about 30% a day, so 14 days from now is 50,000....

[USALiberal]

3/12/2020 1,716
3/13/2020 2,231
3/14/2020 2,900
3/15/2020 3,770
3/16/2020 4,901
3/17/2020 6,371
3/18/2020 8,283
3/19/2020 10,768
3/20/2020 13,998
3/21/2020 18,197
3/22/2020 23,657
3/23/2020 30,753
3/24/2020 39,980
3/25/2020 51,973

[getagrip_already]

1. not if they cut testing...... n/t

[Massacure]

2. 50,000 cases is managable

About 20% of people who test positive for COVID-19 require hospitalization and the United States has about 62,000 ICU beds. It would have to maintain that 30% daily growth rate until April 1 before the U.S. starts to run into trouble. Maintaining that 30% growth rate is also a pretty big assumption. It's not out of the question, but it is not guaranteed either.

[USALiberal]

3. I agree! nt

[Ms. Toad]

4. But remember - those are confirmed cases.

Ohio's director of health indicated that based on Ohio's population, two confirmed community spread cases means we actually have 100,000 cases - in Ohio, alone - already.

[Blue_true]

16. The problem is thanks to Trump, we really have no idea how many people

are infected. The virus is now in something like 46 states, even in an isolated one such as Alaska is. If even 5,000 people unknowingly contracted the virus a month ago, it is likely out of control now, due to each infected person being capable of infection multiple people.

[Bengus81]

5. I can remember when there was what 60 or so in the US and Trump said 15?

One of his first whoppers about the CV and not that long ago.

[Skittles]

6. that is KNOWN cases

[Brainfodder]

7. My prediction is 200,000+ deaths in the U.S.A. from this thing, I don't want to be right...

Dummies roaming free still.... estimate I saw has it killing .2% of 10-39 year olds that get it, that is NOT zero plus all the random lung damage it's known for?

And only goes higher the older you are, up to 14.8% death rate at 80+?

That advice to prepare to lose loved ones, YIKES!

I got two people I won't be able to avoid, so what are the chances 3 people can remain clear?

Ugh!

GOOD LUCK!

[rainbow4321]

8. How many will be undiagnosed?

This news broke today. 70 y/o male, nursing home, taken to the hospital solely for chest pain. Just happened to run a fever while there. He died within 24 hrs. Because of the fever, they did a post-mortem for Covid19. He was positive. Had he not started w/ a fever, they would never been prompted to run a Covid19 test. It would have been only a cardiac related death.



https://fox4kc.com/tracking-coronavirus/wyandotte-county-man-is-first-covid-19-death-in-kansas/

This is the first known case of the virus being locally spread, meaning someone in Kansas was sick, entered the facility where the man was living and spread the virus.

Officials said the man was admitted to Providence Hospital for cardiac problems on Tuesday, and he died Wednesday in a span of less than 24 hours. He wasn't a previously known COVID-19 patient and was tested after he died Wednesday.

[D_Master81]

9. I'm predicting 100,000 by April 1st

[Dem2]

11. Seems to fit the curve

[Crunchy Frog]

10. It will go up much more quickly than that

if they ramp testing up to reasonable levels.

The current official numbers can only be a small fraction of the real numbers.

[juxtaposed]

12. I think your #'s are way off. Ohio present projection today is 100,000 confirmed cases by there

models, with out testing. In Fla. 50 tested and confirmed cases, experts saying it is closer to 150,000-200,000 cases undetected or tested.

[Blue_true]

17. Each infected person can infect lots of other people.

Think of someone who is infected and has not shown symptoms yet. That person can go to a Publix or Walmart and infect dozens of people before checking out of the market. Each infected person subsequently infects one or more other people. Once the number of infected reaches a critical number that is in the hundreds, the spread begins to go out of control. It doesn't help that we have an idiot guarding the gate.

[juxtaposed]

19. yes it's called an RO. we are at an ro-2 ro-3

These are conservative numbers.

[DanTex]

13. There are at least 50k cases already.

It’s just lack of testing.

[Blue_true]

18. I tend to agree with you. nt

[Blue_true]

14. Every person that is infected becomes a vector,

that can infect multiple people. So once the number of infected people was in the hundreds, the risk of the spread mushrooming became a reality.

Because of the poor response from Trump, there is no telling where we are at. China aggressively isolated two whole cities in something like two weeks, the virus has been spreading unabated among us since looks like January.

[DeminPennswoods]

15. No one knows because there simply is not enough data to draw

solid conclusions.

IMHO, there are 2 possible scenarios:

1 Covid19 is very recent and we are at the beginning of an upward trend.

2 Covid19 has been around much longer than anyone has realized. Because it has symptoms similar to the flu and arrived during flu season, a significant number of Americans have already been infected and recovered at home using OTC remedies mistaking the virus for the flu. Thus making worst case extrapolations too high.

Unfortunately until Americans start getting screened for antibodies or tested for the virus itself, we can't really know which scenario is correct.