A good source for accurate COVID-19 data, info and analysis: Paul Sax, MD

[TwilightZone]

His blog, courtesy of Andy Borowitz:

Note: the most-recent post is five days old but still has a lot of relevant information.

https://blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-observations/index.php/as-testing-ramps-up-diagnoses-of-coronavirus-disease-in-the-u-s-will-soon-increase-substantially-how-will-we-respond/2020/03/08/

Of note is his comment about the mortality rate in South Korea, since mortality rate is a topic of much discussion and conjecture here.

"By contrast, consider South Korea, which already has widespread disease and an aggressive testing policy (they have apparently done over 140,000 tests). They have diagnosed 7,314 COVID-19 cases, with 50 deaths, for an estimated mortality rate of 0.6%.

If we apply that 0.6% mortality rate to the 20 deaths we’ve had here, this would mean there are already around 3,000 cases in the United States. We just haven’t been testing enough to find them."

[defacto7]

1. The stats are incorrect.

The statistcal fatality rate for South Korea is about 10% as of today. The statistical rate is derived by adding the number of deaths to the number of recovered cases which becomes the cases with an outcome. Whatever the percent of deaths in cases with an outcome is the statistical fatality rate.
It is illogical and irrelevant to compare the total number of cases to the number of deaths. It makes no sense because you don't know who of the active cases is going to live or die.
The statistical fatality rate doesn't usually represent the final death rate which is expected to be lower but it isn't likely to be .6. It will be more like 3%. It can't be determined until very late in the run of the disease.

[TwilightZone]

2. "The statistcal fatality rate for South Korea is about 10% as of today"

You can't just ignore the cases you don't want to include in the denominator. 10% is complete bullshit.

[defacto7]

3. Look at the stats, read about the calculation methods

used to determine those definitions. You might read the rest of my comment as well. If you need help finding the calculations used by epidemiologists let me know. The estimates of the final death rate is around 3%. .6% is irrational.

[defacto7]

4. Here's a pretty good explanation

How to calculate the mortality rate.

I should have made it more clear that the statistical rate is misleading.