Rachel Maddow's Friday 3/13 show - graphs for Daily New Confirmed Cases for Coronavirus

[iluvtennis]

Asia - China and Korea - have reached there peaks and on the down slope



Europe - Italy and Spain - have not started downward trend



New York City - just the beginning, still on upward slope

[drray23]

1. So if you take the slope,i.e the derivative of these graphs

To renormalize to rate of increase, you find that the ny curve shows a factor of 3 in a week which is indeed comparable to the China scenario. The absolute value on Y axis is dependent on how much we are testing and the total nbr of people but that's not the important fact here. The rate of increase is the key point.
In the absence of social distancing, you get a faster rate of increase.

[jimfields33]

3. The numbers are incredibly smaller

New York City has less then 70. Why not use the United States?

[drray23]

4. Again that's not the important fact.

That 70 is a function of how much we test and the size of the sample. What matters is that it tripled in a week.

[jimfields33]

5. It is very misleading

You compare countries to a city within the United States. That’s not how it’s done.

[Ms. Toad]

6. The graph for the country is essentially the same.

Fewer daily fluctuations (the waves), but essentially the same curve.

[iluvtennis]

9. I just posted what was presented on Rachel's show. Agree, would laos like to see overall US. nt

[Azathoth]

13. Totals aren't important. What's important is that it's an exponential curve

Most people don't understand how fast an exponential curve grows.

Start with one case and double the cases each day. In 33 days, every single person in the world has it. That's exponential growth.

[iluvtennis]

10. Wow, thanks for that analysis and insight into the rate of increase. nt

[BigmanPigman]

2. Why did Italy dip low than soar back up?

I watched her show but didn't catch that if she mentioned it.

[iluvtennis]

7. No, she didn't mention why the dip. nt

[BigmanPigman]

8. OK, than I am asking DUers, "Why the dip?".

[drray23]

11. Hard to tell without detailed information about their protocols.

Could be any number of things. For example, they start bending the rate but another part of italy starts reporting tests at this time and it goes back up.
Similar effect if not all testing centers report at the same time.
Similar effect if rate of testing slows down temporarily because of a lack of supplies in a particular area.

I am sure there could be any other reasons.

[BigmanPigman]

12. Thanks.

We can expect that this could happen with our numbers too than, right? I can see our numbers dipping, then fucking moron announces that all is right with the world the next day than we are back at square one. I get it now.