QUESTION: How long can the US economy last running at 50 - 75% before going into shock ?

[uponit7771]

QUESTION: How long can the US economy last running at 50 - 75% before going into shock ?

Shock meaning it'll take more than 6 months to a year to recover from the slow down.

Looks like the happy path to CV social isolation is the economy slows down 50% 75%, look at all thing things we do in groups during a week.

How long do we have till things get economically worse

America is behind every industrialized country in testing, this is hurting the US in so many ways


Thx in advance

[exboyfil]

1. A 20% sell off in the stock market doesn't seem right

This seems to be much worse than 9/11, and we were in a much better position to deal with it (running a surplus deficit to gdp ratio thanks to Clinton). We are now at 4.6 (50% more than Obama when he left office) before this even started.

I cleared all equities yesterday on Dead Cat Bounce 2. Still cash doesn't seem the greatest home either for my retirement savings.

[uponit7771]

4. +1, There were so much margin out there already I think we'll stop and bounce off 1/3rd down ...

... before we go straight line.

I got out before DCB-2 but was already in bonds so my loss was 2% ish.

[exboyfil]

5. Took a 6% hit and had to explain it to my wife

At 56 and prospects of further job cutbacks at my employer, things don't look the greatest. They have already tinkered with the compensation formula (smaller bonus, lower raises, and less 401(k) matching).

I am thinking this might be my last professional job. I am actually hoping to find something that involves movement and light physical exercise outside if it comes to that.

[Wellstone ruled]

2. By next weekend we

will see Reality door slammed into our faces. It is starting here in Vegas as of the Shift Changes today on the Strip.

[uponit7771]

6. +1, The effects of lack of testing will get real when the lay offs begin in earnest. I don't think

... the economy can take more than a month of the current level of hunkering down.

[Wellstone ruled]

11. It will be noticable here starting today.

Payday on the stripe was Wednesday thur Friday this week,so by this time Monday or Tuesday,all hell will be breaking loose.

[intrepidity]

3. I'm hoping that we discover that it doesn't end civilization

That it was all a house of cards designed to keep us all on the hamster wheel, churning out profits for the oligarchy.

Like when somebody loses or donates a kidney and finds they can still live fine after all.

That's what I'm hoping for.

[JCMach1]

7. Already there... And, it's global

Not just us...

[uponit7771]

8. Shit

[former9thward]

9. We are not at 50-75%.

And we are not "behind every industrialized country in testing". The WHO has declared Europe the center of the C-Virus infections.

[uponit7771]

10. Why don't you think the 2-3 month hunker down time wont take 25% off GDP?

... and yes, we're ... FAR ... behind testing relative to population; just 20,000 test since the genetic sequence was given to WHO on Jan 12.

That's abysmal

[former9thward]

12. I have seen no economist say anything even close to that.

Everyone i know is still working and shopping and doing everything they normally do in life.

[uponit7771]

14. In Italy they're fined for walking outside of their homes and we're behind testing of Italy ...

... I'm praying people are keeping up with what is happening world wide.

10% of the human race being under some kind of quarantine doesn't mean everything is normal ... that sounds FAUX-ish

[former9thward]

16. Europe has lost control

That is obvious.

[kurtcagle]

13. It's already in shock

It will take a few weeks for it to really start hitting home, however.

If a vaccine was discovered tomorrow, we'll be a recession (two quarters of consecutive negative growth) by November just by the hit we've taken. Current estimates put a new vaccine not likely to be tested and put into production much before November. Many companies have put an immediate halt to hiring except for essential personnel, and those that have jobs that are dependent upon travel, entertainment, or the service sector will basically be laying off workers en masse by the end of March.

IT jobs were already heading into a recession, ironically, those will be relatively safe for perhaps two months before the layoffs come, simply because IT can generally be done from anywhere. Problem is that few companies have more than a couple of months of cash flow available to them, and if this thing drags on any longer than May 1, credit is going to freeze up again. Despite what the Fed may do, it's likely that aftermarket interest rates (what comes beyond the Fed's immediate window) will skyrocket. Past June 1, business and personal bankruptcies will also skyrocket due to that as savings and lines of credit get used up or are terminated

The GOP tax cut isn't going to help either. Most of those buybacks went into dividends, and you can bet that if you're heavily vested, you're going to cash out now. This means that the supposed mountains of money that these companies are sitting on probably don't really exist.

[JCMach1]

15. Since there is no proper market at moment, Stock exchange

Should just halt now for duration. Treasury pumped 1.5 trillion in liquidity in the market Thur/Fri only reason markets didn't tumble another 10%.

1.5 trillion is more than 2x TARP for all of 2008 crisis