Following the Infection Trajectory of Italy

[Light63]

We are currently following the trajectory of Coronavirus infection in Italy. Today is the 12th day of the infection for both countries. This morning, the number of people infected in USA was at 3,814. According to the trajectory rate of the infection in Italy, by the end of today, we should be at 4543. At 4:39PM CT, we are now at 4455. By the end of tomorrow, we should reach 5321 of people infected in USA. By the 21st of this month, we could reach more than 10,000, and after that, the dam of infection is broken! Hopefully we can successfully mitigate the fast spreading of the Coronavirus.

[evertonfc]

1. well, not sure we can do much about it

appears most States are taking it serious.

[58Sunliner]

3. You mean besides everything that has already been suggested?

[DrToast]

4. Italy was definitely a wake up call

The crisis in Italy may have had the silver lining of forcing other countries to take it seriously. It’s still going to be bad, but possibly less bad because everyone saw Italy.

[Quixote1818]

2. I think a better way to look at the numbers is by region

For instance Italy is one region of Europe. The North East US is a region with a very high population density which is a big hot spot right now and so is Seattle. There will probably be much more manageable growth in more isolated cities especially across the west if they get a handle early.

[DrToast]

5. Right. Different states will have different trajectories

It’s not like there’s one outbreak in the US, but several hundred.

[johnp3907]

6. Thanks for the numbers!

But what does “the dam of infection is broken “ mean?

[Mike 03]

7. I think it means the number of infections exceeds the ability of our health care

system to provide treatment, i.e. hospital beds, physician care, intubation, ventilation, etc..

[johnp3907]

8. Thanks!