General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsMath people, need some help here
Without testing, the data on our rates of infection are unknown. But we do know the # of deaths.
Once we get testing going on a large scale (assuming we do), will we probably show a smaller percentage of deaths--due to proportion?
Please be kind, and answer as if I'm in fifth grade--I'm in recovery from a mathphobic childhood. Thanks!
treestar
(82,383 posts)The denominator would increase with the testing showing everyone who is infected, regardless of symptoms.
Sedona
(3,769 posts)How do we count them?
OnDoutside
(19,953 posts)Since there are so few people tested, maybe the death rate is much higher but the death is put down to the underlying illness ?
dawg day
(7,947 posts)Or pneumonia.
OnDoutside
(19,953 posts)defacto7
(13,485 posts)All the calculations can show are trends. All the experts can offer are best estimates. If you are looking for the best estimates this site gives good explanations of the process and figures.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus
lettucebe
(2,336 posts)The more people tested, the lower the death rate percentage will be. We need testing now
zonemaster
(232 posts)In a perfect world, you'd test every citizen every day, get the results back in 10 minutes and send out 330 million new, individualized behavior edicts every day. The US is at the other end of that spectrum, unfortunately.
If you just want to get a data-supported characterization of the virus, look at data from a country that's testing the shit out of people, comparatively. That'll certainly be a lot closer, but there will be some factors of arguable levels of influence that may somewhat color one country's results vs. another. Also, as in Italy, you can see that there are some 'non-linearities' involved where factors like how overwhelmed the hospitals are at any one moment, the mean age of the population, the mean accumulated lung damage prior to infections, etc., that can cause models to vary quite a bit, even if you're testing everyone.
coti
(4,612 posts)On a very short-term basis, you can expect the death rate to actually go up slightly as infections have a "head start" on deaths by some days- i.e., deaths will continue for a short time even if infections completely stopped. The "wave" of acceleration for deaths is slightly behind infections.
But, yes, there's a presently a strong selection bias toward severe presentations of the virus, which can inflate the death rate.
Wounded Bear
(58,647 posts)statistics is like that. As sample sizes rise, the numbers get more accurate.