So what will it take to declare we are "all clear" regarding Covid-19? And when can that happen?

[tclambert]

A) Do we have to keep living in semi-quarantine and with social distancing until the disease burns itself out and runs out of new victims? Do we have to wait for everybody to get it?

B) Do we have to wait until we get a vaccine?

At current rates of confirmation of new infections, app. +25% per day, compounded, it goes up a factor of 10 every 10 or 11 days. Probably 100,000 by the end of March. A million by mid-April. 10 million by the end of April. 100 million by mid-May. The entire US population before June 1st. This seems catastrophic and unlikely.

The rate of increase will almost certainly slow at some point and the need for precautionary behavior will continue. If a significant number of people still haven't caught it, will we have to maintain semi-quarantine conditions through the summer and fall and maybe until a vaccine becomes available next year?

Can the people who recover from the disease get back to work and get the economy functioning again?

Once the vaccine arrives, will that even be enough to sound the All Clear or do we have to live with permanent changes? (I have to believe hand-shaking is now a relic of history.)

[Merlot]

1. I don't think anyone has those answers

I am more than happy to see hand shaking go away.

[unblock]

2. It won't happen all at once

A full "return to normalcy" likely won't happen until an effective vaccine is developed, mass produced, distributed, and most of the population is inoculated.

But we'll make progress in the meanwhile. Better therapies, companies are cranking out more ventilators, hospitals are figuring out ways to get more beds and more intensive care units, etc.

As we make progress, some of the life restrictions will gradually ease. It's impossible to sustain this arrangement for too long otherwise.

The idea isn't to keep everyone from getting this virus, the idea is really just to spread out the cases over time do the hospitals aren't overloaded. As capacity increases, the restrictions can ease. But we're on the steep slope up now, so it's hard to see it leveling off, but eventually, it will.

The question is, is that in 8 weeks or 28 weeks? That we don't know.

[Brainfodder]

3. 1.21.21?

[lapfog_1]

4. no reported new cases (confirmed) for, say, 30 days

and / or a proven effective treatment / vaccine (one or the other or both).

call it a year from now... maybe 9 months...

[herding cats]

5. We just don't know yet.

The vaccine is so far out. While it's helpful, it won't make our lives become normal anytime soon.

It depends on how many of us do the right thing and self-isolate if we can. So far, I'm seeing much more regulation forcing such, which is probably good considering when left on our own we've not necessarily been being as smart as we should have be.

It's truly an unknown from here forward. I foretold this coming back in late January and warned my loved ones. But, from here forward I'm riding by the seat of my pants like everyone else. It's up to us, as a nation to take it seriously. Which considering Trump's all too recent stance means reaching his idiot base who could spread it in any, and every, state.

Oh, and I never saw the TP hoarding coming. That one was just weird, even to me.

[Aquaria]

9. You have to live in a hurricane zone to get the TP thing

The mad run on the stuff happens every single time we get word of a bad one coming. Not as bad as this has been, but a run, nevertheless.

I'm used to it. When I lived near the coast in the Rio Grande Valley, I kept two of the big ass packs of toilet paper on hand at all times, for when the idiots got their scaredy pants on. Sometimes it took a couple of weeks for the supply to settle down again.

I haven't had to worry about that so much in San Antonio. Until now.

[JCMach1]

6. 12-18 months prolly

that's if the sucker doesn't mutate in a really f'd up manner

[Captain Zero]

7. After we all get tested at Cadre/Oscar, Jarvankas and Joshua Kushner's Covid money grab

I think they are going to use Google to steer everyone to these test sites that THEY will own with the test kits that they will own

So Trump Oligarchs will control Leasing of the sites, with the help of Google will get millions of American directed to them.

Then Trump controls the sites, the test kits, and the TESTING RESULTS. The testing results will be dutifully reported by Google which has bought into this for some of the money.

Just another thought. Do you trust being swabbed with a 'test' totally controlled by the Trump Crime Syndicate?

[uponit7771]

8. ****TESTING !!!**** That's it, its that simple. Test, isolate, hunker, clean