We are not going to be back to normal at any time soon. Most especially not economically.

[Yavin4]

I've been engaged with some fellow DUers on here about the need for massive, multiple economic stimuli that will have to come from the Federal government over the next 2 to 3 years and possibly beyond in response to this crisis.

What people need to understand is that you cannot shut down the global economy for 30 days or so, and then everything snaps back to normal. That is not how this will go down. Millions of Americans have lost their jobs already, and millions more will lose them in the weeks to come. Our entire healthcare system is like a tiny beach hotel awaiting the tsunami of covid-19 cases.

At a minimum, business, state and local governments, and individuals will be forced to aggresively cut their expenses in order to stay afloat. This creates a cascading effect of lower demand which in turn leads to more job losses which in turn leads to business, state and local governments, and individuals to aggresively cut their expenses in order to stay afloat. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

The end result is a deflationary death spiral, and only the Federal government can pull us out of it. The federal government needs to massively stimulate the economy through direct payments to individuals, lowered taxes, loans to businesses, and block grants to the states.

Most importantly, there will have to be some sort of enhanced national healthcare plan to rebuild our hospitals and get our health care professionals back on their feet. We may indeed need Medicare for All after all. I don't see how our private health insurance companies will be able to survive given the surge in cases. And, even if they do, there will be a huge spike in premiums that many businesses will simply stop offering it as a benefit. See my earlier point about cutting costs.

We live in very perilous times. Across human history when nations experience this kind of disruption, they turned to authoritarian leaders to get them through which can then lead to global wars. That is a heightened possibility today.

[PoliticAverse]

1. Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic (.pdf)

From the Saint Louis Federal Reserve:
https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf

[emmaverybo]

8. Great find.

[Rorey]

2. The spike in premiums won't be affordable to a lot of individuals also

I think you're right on with your assessment. I don't think that many of us can even imagine the changes that are in store for us.

Some hard decisions will have to be made.

[pat_k]

5. And the 10% that own 70% of the national assets...

... need to be willing to make some substantial investments in the form of wealth tax if they are to have ANY hope of recouping losses.

Sure, they'll have suffered substantial losses they'll be eager to recoup. The question is, what's the best way to recoup? Some sort of "shift money to the top" while the vast majority are left to struggle the consequences of "hard decisions" is NOT the way. That way the same old madness lies.

The way to get the economy moving again is to redistribute from the top to the bottom, WHERE THE MONEY gets spent.

If those who end up coming out of this still owning 70% of the nations assets (however diminished) don't make the most substantial investments, we are screwed -- and so are they.

[Rorey]

7. Agree NT

[pat_k]

3. Overall corporate taxes cannot stay where they are.

Bailouts where absolutely necessary to protect against broad economic damage, but those corporations who come out of this in the black need to pay a REAL fair share. Move money from the top to the bottom, where people actually spend it. That will benefit ALL.

And that includes a wealth tax.

However diminished, the top 10% will come out of this still owning 70% of the nations assets.

They will need to a meaningful amount of that into the "national pot" if they want to have any hope of recouping losses.

I do not buy any argument for cutting benefits that help those who are struggling.

It is time for our government to do some meaningful redistribution for the good of us all.

[Yavin4]

6. Tax cuts for large business should be contingent upon not cutting employees. No buy backs or bonuses

The key here is to incentivize companies to not have massive layoffs

[pat_k]

9. Significant wealth tax must be instituted. It is an investment in rebuilding wealth.

Sure, we're going to come out of this with our nation's combined assets much diminished. However, a lions share of those assets will still remain in the hands of the top 10% in terms of wealth.

If those folks want a shot at recouping losses, they've got to make a BIG investment in getting the economy moving. And to continue making a meaningful investment going forward. so we come out of this with a FAR more healthy distribution of wealth and income earning potential.

It is for their own benefit.

Where corporate bailouts are needed, they'll be needed. Businesses that have actually benefited need to be investing a REAL fair share of their profits in strengthening the nation FROM THE BOTTOM UP.

Dollars in the hands of the 30% at the bottom get "multiplied" as they are spent and support businesses, who in turn spend, and on and on.

[Wellstone ruled]

4. Yes we live in perilous times.

By this time next week,my guess is,we will be close to that Mnuchin number of 20 million unemployed.

Try this example,Hospitality Industry here in Nevada employs approximately 140k workers. Those paychecks turn seven times in the related Business within our State. Scary is it not ,and that may be a really low ball number.

Thing about all those Industries and suppliers who depend on the Hospitality Industry. And if anyone thinks things will just magically return to normal some magical day in the new future,not going to happen. Forecasts for rehire of Workers is,maybe twenty percent in the first few weeks.

[pat_k]

11. See post above

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213131416#post9

[DinahMoeHum]

10. Last nails in the coffin for "supply-side economics"

There will be major changes in our society, the likes of which not seen since 1932.

Keynesian economics will be back in vogue.

Just my 2 cents.



#newrostrong

[pat_k]

12. Time to "make peace" with a wealth tax.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213131416#post9

[DinahMoeHum]

13. . . .or the tax codes from the 1950s.

n/t





#newrostrong

[pat_k]

14. Both...

Income tax code changes are not going to be easy to make in the short term. It's very difficult to come up with uniform changes to income tax code in the midst of external chaos striking incomes and industries in different ways across the board.

An immediate wealth tax instituted that has a shot at making up for some of the deficits we will need to run to bail out individuals and stricken industries is something all sane people should be able to agree on.

Assume the 10% who currently own 70% of our national wealth ultimately lose half their wealth to the economic catastrophe. Shouldn't they be willing to invest an additional 10% to building an economy that will in turn help recoup their own losses?

Frankly, they would be insane to resist it.

Income tax code changes toward sanity are absolutely needed. Including return to higher corporate tax rates, etc., but the arguments for those changes will be much stronger when there is some evidence of stability on the horizon from running deficits and taxing wealth to invest in building national wealth from the bottom up.

[Wellstone ruled]

15. Sounds like Moscow Mitch was trying to pass

some kind of give away to corporate America and f over those in need,nothing new.

The Story about Burr will cause a ton of heart burn for the so called GOP Senate leadership crew.

And the smell is getting extra ripe.

[pat_k]

17. Dems need to be talking offsets with investments via wealth tax--wealthy investing to protect wealth

That needs to be the conversation NOW.

We must all pull together.

We rely on each other in this crisis.

Time for the most fortunate among us to invest in our collective survival.

[Wellstone ruled]

18. Moscow Mitch is going to

do what ever it takes to placate his Idol the Orange Anus,by trying to avoid working with Maxine Waters or Nancy Pelosi. That I think is common knowledge.

If someone is expecting a bailout,not going to happen for at least 90 days if not more. Lindsey Grahram poisoned that well of good faith.

[pat_k]

19. Yep.

All too true.

But I would still like to hear the leadership talking wealth tax in terms of investment and the need for us to pull together as a nation, particularly the most fortunate among us.

Get the reality firmly planted.

The best way for the wealthy to protect their wealth is to "make peace" with a substantial wealth tax to help offset the enormous investments we need to make in protecting and rebuilding our economy from the bottom up.

These are truths that people will be more open to hearing in a crisis like this.

I would also like to hear a hell of a lot more about how it is far more effective to invest in those who are struggling most -- the people who will spend the dollars invested -- than to put money into the pockets of people who will... well... pocket it.

And we must use the word "invest"

The money the wealthy contribute via wealth tax is an investment in our collective survival... and an investment in their own self-interests.

[Locrian]

16. as bad as this is- it's only a taste of what's to come....

Climate change, and the increasing frequency of bio events like these will continue and get worse.
This could be a turning point - and I'm not sure which way it's going to go.

We can double down on a flawed system of the 1% vs the rest - and become harsh authoritarianism world.
Or we can realize were in this together and make some fundamental changes to the distribution of wealth and resources.

[durablend]

20. You won't have to worry about insurance premium increases

Because most of them will in the future write in exclusions for pandemic instances.