the number of total reported cases today will significantly exceed

[NRaleighLiberal]

Last edited Mon Apr 27, 2020, 02:02 PM - Edit history (649)

my prediction. The multiplier day to day has been running around 1.4. That would have made today 13,088. It's nearly 1100 est and we are at 14300. So, today's multiplier is 1.5, highest yet. Using this, we will be at 21-22,000 this time tomorrow pm. And 33000 the next day and so on. If we are in exponential mode, the multiplier will increase.

If this persists, we will be at nearly 150K reported cases on the US by end of day March 26. We would cross 1 million on April 1.

Scary scary stuff, and with an imbecile at the helm.

I spoke to someone today who said they were off the grid, don't keep up with news, but called all of this silly and didn't believe a thing I told her.

Scary scary people.


It is the 20th, we are at 19762. multiplier was 1.39.

It's Sat 21st.

my guess, 27500 by end Saturday...we are at 27111 by 1130 pm. 1.38 multiplier

My estimate - somewhere around 37500 by end of day Sunday

35200 by 1000 est Sunday March 22, 1.3 multiplier.

46,000 by end day tomorrow? rate is decreasing just a bit

46400 at 11 pm EST Mon Mar 23. 1.32 multiplier

I estimate 60,000 by end Tues. March 24. 55100 at 11 pm est, 1.2 factor. new cases may be slowing - could be less testing, slower reporting...or impact of isolating? estimates below using a lower rate (which of course could go back to 1.3 or 1.4 tomorrow)

estimate 66,000 end Wed. March 25 so far 69200 at midnight, 1.255 factor, rough day.

my guesses - 82,000 end Thurs. March 26. day opens at 69200 8 am est. 85900 at 1030 pm,1.24 factor. This is awful. Most confirmed cases in the world.

Friday March 27 starts at 86200. at current rate, 106000 or more by tonight. 105100 by 1130 pm est. 1.22 factor.

looking ahead estimates

130,000 end Sat March 28. 124700 by midnight. 1.19 factor. Shelter in place and lockdowns may be showing some effect, as the rate of growth is slowing just a bit. revising my estimates below.

150,000 end Sun March 29. 143100 at midnight. 1.15 factor. slowing a bit? weekend reporting different? we'll see tomorrow.

revised estimates


180,000 end Mon March 30 now thinking 165000 - and all below will reduce if the slower trend holds. 164600 at 11 pm. 1.15 factor, a smidge higher than yesterday - I think the weekend had less testing..

at the current 1.15 factor rate, estimate 190,000 on Tues Mar 31. 189800 at 1130 pm. 1.15 factor. same rate as last 2 days.

estimate 220,000 end Wed April 1. we begin at 189800. 216800 at 1100 pm. 1.14 factor. Approaching same rate as last 3 days.

estimate 250000 end Thurs April 2. start at 216800. 245700 by 1100 pm. 1.133 factor, another slight reduction

estimate 280000 end Fri April 3. start at 245700. 278500 at 10 pm. 1.133, will end up as yesterday

estimate 315000 end Sat April 4, start the day at 278500. 312300 at midnight est. 1.12 factor. weekends tend to see a slowing, bur is social distancing working a bit?

estimate 350000 end Sun April 5. start day 312300. 338000 at 11 pm. 1.08. much lighter day - still horrible, of course. just weekend effect? tomorrow will be telling

estimate 360000 end Monday April 6 start at 338000. 368500 by midnight. 1.089 weekend over, climbing again

est. 400000 min. end Tues April 7. start 368500. 401600 at midnight. 1.089. Rate steady

est. 435000 end Wed April 8, start at 401600. 435600 at 11 pm. 1.085. Rate dropped a tad

est 470000 end Thurs April 9, start 435600. 470000 at midnight. 1.078. another slight rate drop

est 510000 end Fri April 10. start 470000. 506000 at midnight est. 1.077 - essentially yesterday's rate.

est 540000 end Sat April 11. start at 506000. 534300 at 10 pm...weekends tend to drop in count. 1.056

est 560000 on Sunday Apr 12. start day 534300. 562100 at 10 PM est. 1.052. very similar to yesterday. Will Monday bring an increased rate?

est 600000 on Monday Apr 13. start at 562100. 588500 at midnight . 1.047

615000 Tues Apr 14. start at 588500. 615300 at 11 pm. 1.046. looks like a roughly steady rate.

est 640000 Wed Apr 15. start day 615300 cases. 645400 at midnight. 1.049

est 675000 Thurs Apr 16. start day 645400 cases. 678200 at midnight 1.051

est 707000 Fri Apr 17. start 678200. 713500 at midnight est. 1.052.

est 750000 Sat April 18. start 713500. 742100 at midnight. weekends tend to have lower numbers. 1.04

est 785000 SunApril 19. start 742100. 772100 at 11 pm. 1.04. holding steady - will it rise again on Monday?

est 810000 Mon April 20. start 772100. 801000 at 11 pm. 1.038. rate dropped a bit.

est 830000 Tues April 21. start 801000. 827400 at midnight est. 1.033. will end up very close to yesterday

est 850000 Wed April 22, start 827400. 856900 at midnight est. 1.035. rate increase

est 885000 Thurs April 23. start 856900. 891700 at 1100 pm est. 1.041. rate increase.

est 930000 Fri April 24. start 891700. 928700 at midnight est. 1.041. Pretty steady.

est 965000 Sat April 25. start 928700. 961000 at 1030 pm est. 1.035. small typical weekend drop.

est 1 million Sunday April 26. Start 961000. 987600 at 10 pm. 1.028. weekend drop persists.

looks like we will reach 1 M on Monday April 27. start at 987600. 1,000,115 at 2 pm est. Done.

One month to go from 60,000 to 1 million. unfathomable

[gibraltar72]

1. Getting closer to zero.

[Alacritous Crier]

3. That zero is a bitch. -- nt

[Blue_true]

10. Per Trump math. nt

[gibraltar72]

11. Gonna be about 5000 new cases

before midnight. deaths well over 200.

[0rganism]

13. lots of zeros lined up together

perfect zeros, the best zeros

[C_U_L8R]

2. We're a bigger country than many

When we go exponential, the numbers may be pretty shocking

[Blue_true]

12. I agree. Add that we were totally in the dark and have no idea of

the number of infected people going out spreading the virus, because they can't get confirmed as infected. The lack of testing early on is going to hurt us badly.

[Aquaria]

26. Third most populous

After China and India.

We're supposed to be around 10 days behind Italy, so extrapolate out their population to ours, which is *5.47 that of Italy, for those who want to know. Now multiply it by the number of deaths they reported today, which is 602. That means in ten days, the US could be seeing a death toll of 602 * 5.47 = 3293.

And that's not total. That's for one day.

[MoonlitKnight]

4. Florida

Went from 319 at 11am to 432 at 6pm today. I think we had just over 100 Tuesday.

We pretty much just started testing.

[MoonlitKnight]

16. 563 today in Florida

11 deaths

[MoonlitKnight]

20. 658 at 11 am

12 dead

[MoonlitKnight]

21. 763 at 6pm today

12 dead.

[MoonlitKnight]

23. Florida was at 830 cases this morning

Now at 1,007.

13 dead.

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/#latest-stats


https://healthweather.us/

[MoonlitKnight]

24. Florida at 11AM today

1,171 cases
14 dead

[MoonlitKnight]

25. 18 dead

1,227 cases.

[MoonlitKnight]

28. 20 dead in Florida as of 11AM

1467 cases. Next update soon.

[MoonlitKnight]

29. Hmmm

6PM numbers same.

[MoonlitKnight]

30. Rachel covered this tonight.

This is why I have been doing these Florida updates.

https://healthweather.us/

[MoonlitKnight]

31. 22 dead at 11 am March 25

1682 cases

[MoonlitKnight]

35. 2484 cases and 29 dead

[MoonlitKnight]

36. 3198 cases - 46 dead in Florida

Only 34,000 tested.

[MoonlitKnight]

37. 4038 cases - 56 dead

[Bernardo de La Paz]

5. Partly because there is a little more testing now.

[gibraltar72]

6. And we crossed 200 dead marker.

[uponit7771]

7. Like an 18 wheeler pulling nitros losing its break while going down hill

[Kkeyz]

8. Trump virus

Trump has been trying to redirect any response to his mishandling of the coronavirus by his alarmist and racist labeling of the coronavirus as the “Chinese virus” and the “Kung flu”. I suggest that we allocate blame appropriately by referring to the coronavirus as the “trump virus”. If the blame for this global health crisis is going to go to anyone, it should go to the politician who dismantled all the infrastructure left in place by the Obama administration that allowed us to prepare for this pandemic.

[Blue_true]

9. Once a specific number of people are infected in a region,

the rate of change starts approaching an exponential, so a multiplier no longer works. The reason why is each infected person becomes an infecting vector that simultaneously infects multiple people at each contact with a group. The almost complete lack of testing for over three months doesn't help.

[NRaleighLiberal]

14. kick

[NRaleighLiberal]

15. kick with an update tonight

[Wounded Bear]

17. It is both increased testing, and expanded spread due to the slow ramp up of testing...nt

[NRaleighLiberal]

18. kick...updating and adding to my OP

[uponit7771]

19. +1, there's no real excuse now for the lack of testing /isolation

[NRaleighLiberal]

22. kick for more OP updates

[NRaleighLiberal]

27. kicking...updating the OP daily

[Demovictory9]

32. is 170K the current number?

[HarlanPepper]

33. Looks like we didn't make your 150k projection

I find in times like this experts in their field, whether it be math or science, are the best sources. I’m sure you agree.

[NRaleighLiberal]

34. rate slowed last 2 days. stat people gotta stat!

[NRaleighLiberal]

38. kicking - continuing to edit and update my OP - hint of good news? rate of increase daily is slowing

[LisaL]

39. We are still not testing most people.

So those stats are mostly worthless.

[NRaleighLiberal]

40. I don't view them as worthless at all - they tell us something - certainly not the whole thing

but information is always valuable as long as, as you say, understand its limitations.

Different strokes for different folks. I'd much rather learn what I can from data than spend a second watching the buffoon on the teevee (or watching anything on teevee, for that matter!)

[lunasun]

41. Thanks for maintaining this record

[uponit7771]

42. K&R,

[ramen]

43. I just got here from your post about this post..

This is excellent, thanks for doing what you do here.