Now 19,101 infected and 244 deaths

[KewlKat]

Johns Hopkins just updated their map....

[MontanaMama]

1. Saw that.

I watch that site all day every day.

[evertonfc]

2. Death rate

the numbers are high but death rates are much, much lower than Italy. Germany also has much lower death rates. If you look at number of cases to date versus deaths it's about 1.1%.

[Ms. Toad]

7. Only becuase the number of cases is growing faster than the deaths can keep up.

It would be more accurate to compare deaths to number of cases 2 weeks ago.

That gives you a death rate of well over 50% (there were only 319 cases then . . . )

In other words, trying to calculate a death rate using the population that was sick 2 weeks ago (when we weren't testing) grossly overestimates the deaths. Using the the newly diagnosed - especially since the newly diagnosed include those who had symptoms 2 weeks ago but couldn't get a test grossly underestimates the death rage since those newly symptomatic in the last couple of days have not yet had time to die.

Comparison to Italy and Germany are also pretty much meaningless, since both test a significantly larger portion of the population (Germany ~5 times, Italy more than 10x the fraction of the population that we test).

Basically, it's a shot in the dark.

[evertonfc]

9. we will see but

a guy I was watching on CNN minutes ago was saying it looks like Italy was an outlier with deaths due to probable age of population and some unknowns. 8% is not normal with this disease

[Ms. Toad]

10. 1.3% would be an outlier, as well.

It's more likely in the 3-4% range. But there is no way to make a reasonable guess using US statistics because of our crappy testing.

[DrToast]

11. The fatality rate will increase drastically if we can't treat everyone

[LArider]

3. Optimist in me says

that's a .012 death rate. Stay safe folks.

[KewlKat]

4. What will the numbers be whe they get to do more testing?

10 fold?

[Crunchy Frog]

5. With a population that's grossly undertested.

And many fatalities also going untested.

[KewlKat]

6. Yeah...how high will it go and how fast...

[Crunchy Frog]

8. How many cases and fatalities will be covered up?

How many doctors and nurses are going to die?