Covid data

[matt819]

Take a look at the JHU site on Covid data.

Overall mortality is around 4%. China is 4%, Italy at 9%, Spain at about 5%.

To have an overall rate of 4%, I suppose it’s not unusual to see a range. I get that. But then look at the US mortality rate. It stand at .1%, which as everyone knows by now is generally regarded as the mortality rate of the seasonal flu.

I understand the increase in cases. That’s due to testing, probably, however bad that has been. But what accounts for the surprisingly low mortality rate?

Data withheld? We’re better at treating Covid patients?

I realize that we’re all pretty much resorting to speculation and basic analysis of the relatively limited data out there. But this bit stands out.

[HarlanPepper]

1. Germany has the lowest death rate so far

Saw a story on it on BBC News, which has covered this in an orderly fashion as opposed to our TV media.

[Shell_Seas]

2. Wonder what it will look like in a week or two when we run out of ICU beds...

[Demonaut]

3. data withheld, we've been at 64 for days

serious/critical, but death rate is climbing

[emmaverybo]

4. Those other countries had much more data in, more cases to draw from, more testing. In a month

or two, with more testing, cases, death we will have a different mortality rate too. But based on world-wide data attained so far, it is about 3.4 percent but that does not take into account the many cases not tracked in which people did not go to hospital and recovered. If counted, the mortality rate would be lower.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/what-is-coronavirus-mortality-rate-covid-19

[zonemaster]

5. The number of deaths is a cumulative measure

And since it takes about 3 weeks, I believe, to go from infection to death, you should compare the accumulated deaths of today to the accumulated infections of 3 weeks ago. Unfortunately, if we're not testing the hell out of everyone, and we're not identifying every infected patient as surely as you can identify every dead one, your numbers are going to be way, way off, as far as estimated mortality.

The US has about 275 accumulated deaths of today. We had only 92 accumulated cases and 2 deaths 3 weeks ago. The estimated mortality using those numbers would be astounding. So - take those, and any current numbers of total number of people infected - with a giganto grain of salt. We just don't have a rate of testing that is anywhere sufficient to get accurate estimations of deaths, nor especially current number of infected persons.

[mr_lebowski]

6. Just for the sake of clarity, you're not actually talking about mortality rate ...

You're talking about Case Fatality ratios here when it comes to COVID-19.

Mortality Rate (the one usually referred to with Flu) is a different calculation, and is based on the population 'at risk'. As such, mortality rate is not comparable to case-fatality rate.

https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate

[matt819]

8. Thanks for clarifying

I thought I’d heard Fauci and others use the terminology I was using. Maybe not.

[Roland99]

7. We're at 1.1%. But that will change when hospitals are overloaded

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/