Here's why Trump is not using the Defense Production Act.

[Firebrand Gary]

Here's why Trump is not using the Defense Production Act.

I'm married to a doctor. Two weeks ago, the cost of a box of 3M nasal test swabs was $500; today, they're $1,500 per box. These swabs are essential to COVID-19 testing because of the dacron fibers.

There are 500 swabs in a box.

[scarletlib]

1. Profiteering for all his rich buddies.

[Firebrand Gary]

2. Yep! No wonder why Burr and Loeffler had no issues with insider trading.

Considering the President is willing to allow price gouging on live saving testing, PPE and soon, Rx's. I will say it here, inhalers.

[Captain Zero]

3. Does 3M have a patent on them?

I guess so, and the DPA would overide any patents and allow anyone to make them?

[Firebrand Gary]

4. I'm not sure about the patent.

I do know the DPA has a price control measure.

[magicarpet]

28. DPA addresses gluttony/greed.

The part of the DPA trDump abhors,...
... and why he is reluctant to formally enact.

####
It also allows POTUS to designate materials "to be prohibited from hoarding or price-gouging."

trDump thinks payoffs, bribery, graft, corruption, unethical conduct, hoarding, and price gouging are all the backbones of a free market enterprise system and capitalism.

[gulliver]

5. It could also be that they want the "commercial market" to respond per Republican religious ideas.

They've done their rain dance, and they are willing to wait a while to see if it rains before drilling a well.

[Firebrand Gary]

6. Agree.

It's too bad that the well in this case could save many lives.

[uponit7771]

7. K&R

[Firebrand Gary]

10. It's criminal.

If they want to raise their price on Scotch tape, fine, whatever. Life saving medical equipment, they should be ashamed of themselves.

[Firebrand Gary]

9. I love Math.

Let's say 330 Million People.

Divided by 500 swabs in a box which equals 660,000 boxes.

660,000 boxes X $1,500 per box is $990,000,000

Basically, ONE BILLION DOLLARS on nasal swabs.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

24. I love math, so I try to get premises & assumptions straight

Without reasonable assumptions, it becomes fanciful arithmetic. Garbage In Garbage Out. I can come up with any figure you want if I get to pick absurd assumptions.

There will NEVER be a need to test 330 million people.

1) Infection percent will not be near 100%.
Currently it is 75 per million in US.
In Italy, it is currently about 886 per million, about 1 in a thousand.

1b) The infection percent in Italy is multiplying by 10 every 20 or so days, at the current rate.
In the US it is multiplying by 10 every 8 days at the current rate.

1c) If South Korea and (to lesser extent) Italy are a guide, it may slow down as social distancing kicks in.

2) A significant percentage of those who get infected don't show symptoms and would not have cause for testing even if a surplus of kits were available.

3) Of those showing symptoms, many have mild symptoms and don't / won't get tested.

So, assume maybe a 75% in #1. But accounting for 1c) it is likely to more like 20% or less.

Of that 20%, maybe a half to a tenth will show symptoms, re #2. Assuming a third, that multiplies 20% down to 7% (rounding up).

Severe symptoms among those symptomatic might be only in half to a quarter. So halve the 7% down to 4% (rounding up).

So, ... 4% of 330 million is 14 million.

14 million times $3 each swab = $42 million.

[jberryhill]

27. Here's the problem with that math

This "only test symptomatic people" thing is just dumb.

Other than keeping score, it doesn't really matter a whole lot. If the clinical management of the patient is going to be whatever it is for those symptoms, then simply knowing, "yep, you got it" is not actionable data.

South Korea succeeded by MASSIVE TESTING, and IDENTIFYING THOSE ASYMPTOMATIC SPREADERS so that they could trace contacts, and use targeted isolation measures.

The entire POINT of the South Korean approach was to test people who did not have symptoms, because those are the people you want to identify. Sick people are already going to confine and treat themselves.

Honestly, explain this to me like I'm two years old. What is the point in testing people who are already sick, and whose clinical management won't be affected by the test result?

[Bernardo de La Paz]

34. SKorea has tested LESS than 1% of the population. It was EARLY.

Large scale testing works if you do it early, which is what SKorea did. It was, importantly, combined with stringent isolation and lockdown measures where needed, including fines up to $40,000 in one case.

But less than 1% is not "massive".

And the US is too late. SKorea infection rate is only 175/million and they are topping out. US infection rate (75) is already about 40% of SKorea's and the US is far behind in testing.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing SKorea pop 51M did only 316,000 tests by March 20. US with 6 times the population has done only 104,000. Canada, with one-ninth the population of US, has done more tests than the US.

When more than, say, 5% of the population is infected, testing has very little utility (ask an epidemiologist for a non-arbitrary figure). And the US is very unlikely to test even 1% of the population before infection reaches 5%.

I look for your cow because I like your posts because they are written by somebody who thinks more carefully than the average DU member. This kind of stuff is difficult to project or model or plan for, and I am not an expert. But I try to understand.

The two keys are: EARLY TESTING and populace that COMPLIES with social distancing EARLY and at very high rates.

US has neither.

Oh, by the way, SKorea has the second best healthcare system in the world. That's a factor too. USA isn't even in the top ten.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

37. As to testing symptomatic people, yes it DOES affect clinical treatement

If a person is symptomatic but not shedding the virus, then they don't have the virus and don't need treatment (unless they are already being treated for severe symptoms in which case they have the flu or something but not covid-19). The symptoms are broad and not sharply defined, so that is why testing of symptomatic people is useful and affects treatment courses. Treatments for flu and covid have some overlap but considerable differences.

But if they are shedding the virus, then their symptoms will be followed up more closely even if they aren't hospitalized. If they are hospitalized then whether it is flu or covid affects what kind of protective gear the staff should wear (if it is available).

Testing symptomatic people is more productive for intensive contact tracing than testing asymptomatic people because you find greater numbers of people who need contact tracing.

This pandemic is tricky but I hope this perspective helps.

[jberryhill]

38. Interesting

[Firebrand Gary]

12. Apparently albuterol inhalers average $45 each.

I'm not going to do the math on this one, it will just piss me off.

[meadowlander]

15. Do they use them for the testing?

I get them for $5 a pop - yay socialised medicine.

But wondering if there is likely to be a shortage...

[SWBTATTReg]

18. This is a good price, not too bad.

Is this a more than usual price you pay?

[Evolve Dammit]

23. I'll never forget the movie "Sicko" where inhalers in Cuba were 6 cents. The 9-11 rescue worker was

in tears when they sent her home with a bagful. Great documentary.

[GreenPartyVoter]

13. Have you checked in with your Congressional members?

[Firebrand Gary]

17. Yes!

I called their office yesterday.

[GreenPartyVoter]

21. So glad to hear it!

[WyattKansas]

14. After the Orange Virus has been wiped out...

The Democratic Party should immediately do investigations into all of the republican corruption that has transpired the last decade, including any of their profiteering during this national emergency. Yes it still matters, even if they cannot be prosecuted, because the truth of what they are matters. Don't expect people or trumpanzees to change if there are no consequences to their deeds. No more sweeping their giant elephant turds under the rug, because they are long time friends and their kids and grandchildren play together. If the good cop/bad cop routine continues, the media needs to force the reckoning and double down like republicans would.

[Firebrand Gary]

16. We should.

It's just going to keep happening the more we turn our heads. It must be addressed.

[magicarpet]

35. trDump says bribery should be A-OK just part of bidnez .....

The Trump administration is reportedly considering seeking changes to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, a U.S. law that makes it illegal for American companies to bribe foreign officials. “We are looking at it,” White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow told reporters Friday, Bloomberg reports.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-17/white-house-considers-changes-to-law-banning-overseas-bribes?sref=6SIErc4i

[lunatica]

19. Bingo!

Like someone said, “disaster capitalism”!

It’s excruciatingly obvious.

[iluvtennis]

20. Yep, it's all about the $$ to him/his cronies. They don't care about the lives of people.

Karma would be that he/the money cronies all go down on the coronavirus ship.

[wackojacko]

22. I would assume this is how it works BUUUUUTTTTTTTT

Many Hospitals and Bio/Sci are locked into supply contracts for hi demand products. Many of these agreements include price garantees so you don't go to other suppliers in the middle of the year to get a cheaper deal.

Now, we are going to see this price change as supplies dwindle and China finally starts resupplying us with goods at a cost on their own terms. This first run was to see how much they can shake out of the US pinata but trust me, the second round is going to be insane.

[TeamPooka]

25. Kelly ODonnell asked about price controls today and Trump said he liked the "open market" instead.

[Firebrand Gary]

36. Let's hope we see follow up in the coming days as well.

He *should* be asked directly why he's leaving this to the free market. It will further expose his intentions and his cronies.

[Ilsa]

41. Then the "open market" or free market should let those businesses fail,

following his logic.

[SamKnause]

26. Governor Cuomo said he is paying $4.00 per mask that normally cost 80 cents.

[dchill]

29. K&R.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

30. He says the states should be bidding against one another for medical supplies.

Only if it "gets out of hand" (whatever that means) should the federal government step in.

Business as usual in Trumpworld.

[SunSeeker]

32. It has already gotten out of hand. WTF is he talking about.

Los Angeles can't get test kits to test sympomatic people. They're just sending people home unless they're too sick to breath on their own. https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-county-gives-up-on-containing-coronavirus-tells-doctors-to-skip-testing-of-some-patients/

[SunSeeker]

31. K & R for exposure.

[warmfeet]

33. And absolutely nothing will be done about it.

Nothing!

[Mersky]

39. And just today, tRump explained his reasoning for not enacting the DPA in the reverse...

Last edited Sat Mar 21, 2020, 11:36 PM - Edit history (1)

by insinuating that the open market (pricing) is somehow better, and relied on mumbling buzzword bullshit to get through the moment.




As if the open market is handling the crisis well. Home sewn masks, tape, craft goods, and piecemeal donations are supplying what his crony-tainted market pResidency cannot.

Pricing efficiency fails with life-saving products when there are few or no substitutes to those goods in an open, “free” market, so price-gouging, and geographical shortages for swabs, etc. is a built in market response from our for profit healthcare system unless there’s benevolent government intervention.

Instead, we’re dealing with a malevolent federal government that jacked-up the prices on those goods by outbidding state governments. He’s forcing them to use the already inefficient open market before his federal government steps in!* This, as doctors are patching together PPE, reusing masks, or using CDC approved scarves? Lunacy. The federal government shouldn’t be a competing bidder under these circumstances! It’s wildly nuts and stupid cruelty that will kill people and drag this country financially.

Aggravating all of this are tRump’s trade war tariffs on medical supplies and his hostile posturing leading to predictable shortages - especially in the event of a pandemic that anyone paying attention could have foreseen happening.** Compounding trouble occurs when holding inventories is anathema to quarter over quarter profit mantras - this is why suppliers may not have surge capacity stored up to sell in a pandemic. Then there’s worst case scenario planning at the hospital system level which, I assume, has become increasingly difficult due to supply limits, delays, and overpricing. Too, the local health authorities, hospitals, etc. likely expected the federal government would respond responsibly and competently.

The federal govt should be streamlining the delivery of their disaster resources to those hotspots that need supplies the most and in a timely way. Also, he needs to be pushing for retooling plants to manufacture critical PPE so the later hotspots will have plenty as well. DPA should have been clearly enacted two weeks ago, at a minimum. Good grief, I hope companies have been doing some serious operational planning of their own accord, but I am doubtful of their effectiveness without outside coordination.

Let me sum this by putting it in terms tRump and his fellow slumlord-hearted followers care about: you can’t keep the economic growth numbers of a population when you let 2% die that otherwise wouldn’t have, and another ~6% that survive critical illness but wouldn’t have without hospitalization.


*(3/20/20): The federal government outbid states on critical coronavirus supplies after Trump told governors to get their own medical equipment https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-trump-outbid-states-on-medical-supplies-2020-3

**(9/3/19) Tariffs are hitting medical supplies and costs 'will be passed on to the consumer’ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trade-war-consumers-medical-supplies-144533487.html

[marble falls]

40. thought this might interest you ...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213145818