Even the best coronavirus scenario is terrible

[kpete]

Mike Allen: “Some readers tell us they think virus coverage has been overly dramatic. So we wanted to share with you the consensus of what the most clear-eyed, serious, optimistic people are saying, as a way to focus our minds.”

“Tens of thousands of Americans die, we have double-digit unemployment for months, countless businesses die, retirements are wiped out, and the nation is saddled with once unimaginable debt.”

“That, folks, is the best case scenario we’re facing.”

https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/21/the-best-case-scenario-is-pretty-terrible/
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-cases-deaths-scenarios-a452dd00-81eb-4683-9050-83a93e40b538.html


scary stuff - so far I am taking all precautions and only let 12% of myself panic.
I am with the person i love, the dog i love and in a place that i love with plenty of food and tp.

[uponit7771]

1. K&R, Morningstar expects this all to be done by 3rd quarter, it wont be because no testing/isolate

... campaign by the federal government.

[OnDoutside]

3. And no vaccine until some time next year.

[uponit7771]

6. +1, we can get back to more normality without vaccine if we did what S Korea

... has done.

They were prepared and we were not

[OnDoutside]

8. And if you don't have ALL states united in working together, how could even say, CA or NY get

their states under control, when some infected Redneck Republican travels there from a Red State, who have done nothing to combat this ? You would somehow have to block non-NYers from entering the state. It's just impossible to be done.

I was only thinking about this, here in Ireland. We won't know until the week after next if all our efforts at Social Distancing, is working. But even then, let's say they do get it under control, surely we would have to block entry from out of control countries like the US and UK ?

[uponit7771]

10. +1, this is going to go beyond 3 months

[OnDoutside]

11. 100% agree.

[dweller]

2. we have 5k new cases as of today

when we had ~5k total cases just last monday ...
we have ~25k cases total as of today ...

care to speculate where we will be by next week?
😥

✌🏼

[BComplex]

5. We'd have one helluvalot more cases if anybody could get hold of a TEST!!

But that ain't happenin'

[shanti]

9. Probably

the same place that Italy is now, around 53,000.

[dawg day]

12. March 8.. telwo weeks ago, 500 cases.

More than 23K now. Close to a 50x increase. In 2 weeks.

[AlexSFCA]

4. what is the worst case scenario

Let’s just distance ourselves from reality and move into scifi territory when no boundaries exist: what would happen if nothing special is done to combat Covid. E.g., no lockdowns, patients denied care if hospital is full, etc. My projection is much larger number of elderly people would die and those with chronic or underlying conditions. Everyone else would have immunity after mild or asymptomatic illness plus herd immunity (common scenario). Extremely cruel - again, scifi. How would economy react if suddenly there is dramatic reduction in elderly and ill people? I am assuming 10+M in the US would die in a few weeks in this worst case scenario.

[meadowlander]

7. If the hospital system collapses,

and there aren't enough ventilators closer to 30 million will die in the US not including all of the people who need medical treatment for things other than Covid-19 and can't get it.

Many health care workers die because of lack of PPE/exhaustion. It takes 8+ years to replace them.

That's a literal decimation of the US population.

[pat_k]

13. Or...

Tens of thousands of American die. A horrific tragedy, particularly because so may of those deaths could have been avoided with reasonable actions from the outset, rather than denial and delay.

As we collectively come to terms with what we have been through:

1) A renewed sense of how vulnerable we are and how much we count on each other leads many, many more Americans to embrace the sensible progressive policies they have been resisting for decades.

2) The most fortunate among us recognize the need for a massive investment in the form of a wealth tax (7% year one, 4% year 2, 1% ongoing) as the first step to rebuilding our economy from the Bottom Up in a way that expands capacity to earn and lifts up those who are most vulnerable and struggling (because it is by how we treat the most vulnerable we shall be judged).