Unemployment could reach 30% in the U.S., says St. Louis Fed's Bullard

[Celerity]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/unemployment-could-reach-30-in-the-us-says-st-louis-feds-bullard-2020-03-22

‘This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole... It is a huge shock and we are trying to cope with it and keep it under control.’

That’s Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard explaining to Bloomberg News why he sees the U.S. unemployment rate hitting 30% in the coming months as the world continues to grapple with the coronavirus pandemic.

If his gloomy jobs projection proves to be true, unemployment would be worse than it was during the Great Depression and three times worse than the 2007-’09 recession, according to Reuters. Bullard also said he expects an unprecedented 50% plunge in gross domestic product.

“Everything is on the table,” he said, referring to additional lending programs from the Federal Reserve. “There is more that we can do if necessary... There is probably much more in the months ahead depending on where Congress wants to go.”

snip

[DFW]

1. We're bracing for it. We've been there before.

My outfit is fairly evenly distributed, as we have a proportionally large number of specialists along with support staff that can't just be replaced by a snapping of fingers. What we did the last time this happened, is that all the top earners immediately went on half salary voluntarily until the tight period was over, and no one at the bottom was let go or put on reduced wages. I realize that few businesses are willing or able to do that, but there are always exceptions. It helps to have a few forward-thinkers at the top.

[duforsure]

2. It'll continue to go up

Especially in Nov. when trump and the gop lose their jobs.

[captain queeg]

3. I think 30% was about what the US hit during the Great Depression in the 30s.

[Celerity]

4. it peaked in 1933 at 24.9%, so it would be worse

https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506

[Sherman A1]

5. I believe 30% is a low estimate

And things will be bleak.

We need a Universal Basic Income and need it yesterday.

[Celerity]

7. Yang is looking better by the day, unfortunately in the rear-view mirror

He also gave a big talk on pandemics in the future (he tied it to global warming) and how it couple wipe out huge swathes of our economy. Very prescient man. Biden needs to put him to good use.

[area51]

25. +1 on the UBI. n/t

[Celerity]

8. lol, oki, lets start playing patriot test games

[Sherman A1]

10. I would much rather have realistic estimates from the Fed

As opposed to sticking my head in the sand. With a vaccine estimated to be at least 18 months out, this isn’t going away anytime soon and will have a devastating affect on the world we once knew.

[Renew Deal]

13. You're confusing two different situations.

The spread of coronavirus and the impact on the economy. Cuomo said yesterday that this might require 9 months of lockdown. What do you think that means for the economy? I know, you don’t want to speculate. How about a “reasonable” 3 months?

[Renew Deal]

19. The scary thing is that this is all over much faster if you don't "flatten the curve"

At the cost of millions of lives. I can see Trump seeing that as a good thing.

[Sherman A1]

14. You are absolutely correct

It is just the opinion of one Fed President. It is however an informed opinion and one to which I will certainly listen.

[Renew Deal]

12. What does "acting like a patriot" mean?

And how does that keep coronavirus away?

[Renew Deal]

17. That's a relief.

[Nature Man]

22. none of the first sentence has anything to do with being

an American, patriotism, or any other such nonsense.

[Sherman A1]

16. A valid question.

Most certainly.

[Nature Man]

21. It's a scientitious fact!

If you wear USA flag apparel, hoist flags everywhere, and listen to Lee Greenwood, it actually scares COVID-19 virus molecules away back to China!

USA! USA! USA!

HA!

[Nature Man]

23. It's just Monday morning

"Start acting like a true patriot" in response to a GLOBAL pandemic has to be the most stupid thing I've read this week so far.

AND it's ONLY Monday morning.

[beachbumbob]

26. the job loss will be huge, no way to stop that and will take years to restore