at our current confirmed case rate, we will pass China on Thursday

[NRaleighLiberal]

with over 100,000 cases by end of day. Right now take the reported number at the end of the day and multiply by 1.3. That will be the final number on the following day.

And orange face anus mouth wants to pretend we can soon go about our normal daily lives!

Lock him up if there are no guts to 25thA the asshole

[DonaldsRump]

1. If that does happen,

and I see no reason that it won't happen in the next few days, Trump is toast.

If we actually surpass China, it is definitive proof positive of his failures. He will, of course, blame the states/governors. However, surpassing China on this will speak powerfully to a majority of voters about the sheer incompetency of this Idiot.

I hope to God it doesn't happen, but I don't think it's possible to stop surpassing China now.

[NRaleighLiberal]

4. the curve is not flattening at all

the really scary numbers come in a bit down the line at the current rate

500,000 by April 1

over 1 million by April 4

etc

[Igel]

10. The numbers reflect two things.

Increased testing and spread.

It's a mistake to assume they just reflect spread. Until there's a large enough percentage, the numbers to watch are the # dead.

The death toll is still largely reflecting the period before most states implemented widespread social distancing.

And NY State's going to be a lagging in any curve, since the mayor of NY insisted on not implementing measures when he could, and the governor rejected the idea until near the end of last week. The numbers are averaged, places with no social distancing where the curve is more advanced and places with social distancing where they're behind the curve.

It's not a simple function in an Excel spreadsheet. Thinking has to go into the calculation. Try NY numbers separate from, say, California's and Georgia's and Texas'. I doubt you'll get the same coefficients on the fit curve. NY's is going to be terrifying, the others less so.

[chicoescuela]

2. We're number 1. Nice work Spanky.

[Victor_c3]

5. Beat me to it

We’re #1!
We’re #1!
We’re #1!
We’re #1!
We’re #1!

[Igel]

11. We may have to get past Italy, first.

It's already #1 for admitted deaths, by a wide margin. Odds are it's #1 for actual infections, too.

[tinrobot]

3. And China has four times our population

[Victor_c3]

6. Wow. We're living through a monumental American tragedy

The trump presidency will be remembered for its disastrous bungling of a pandemic and monumental failed economy.

[Ms. Toad]

7. I've got it at Thursday or Friday

94,000+ by the end of the day Thursday. (My formula was only off by a couple hundred for today)

[NRaleighLiberal]

8. wondering if we are seeing a slight decline, or just noise...we shall see.

one website had it too high tonight, they corrected, so I am recalculating in a few hours. Seems numbers don't change much after 5-6 PM.

[Ms. Toad]

13. I just look at the final count for the day.

For worldometers, it's around 9. I wait for the new cases to drop to a handful, subtract the new "tomorrow" cases from the total cases for the day today and plug it into my dataset. That way I'm comparing apples to apples.

But the new US cases slow down considerably after 6-ish.

I don't think the rate of increase has changed. Look at this page & scroll down to the new daily cases.

The 21st is abnormally low and the 22nd is abnormally high. I think some of the cases from the 21st got shifted by a day, since the rest of the curve lines up pretty well. Maybe a state with a lot of cases missed the daily cut-off for reporting.

[Princess Turandot]

9. FYI NYS ramped up its testing rate dramatically in recent days

as soon as the feds allowed the states to do their own testing.

-As of 3/18, 22,000 people had been tested
-As of 3/22, 78,000 people had been tested

That's undoubtedly impacting/distorting any rate of growth calculation in the short term.

[Ms. Toad]

14. The formula I'm running -

a polynomial, rather than an exponential, is working well with the ramp-up. Yesterday's prediction for today was 44,000+; the actual number at the worldometers close of day today was 43, 735. It's been within a thousand or so for the last 5 days or so - I've lost track. I adjust it every day - but the predictions a week out don't change much. (A month aout they are significantly different.)

[D_Master81]

12. And China had no idea what was going on

Can you imagine the s**t show it would be in this country under Trump to contain a new virus this contagious.

[Baclava]

15. So we can officially call it Trump's Flu, or The Trump Virus, i like that one better