As of today, there are more active cases in the u.s. than any other country.

[unblock]

We just passed Italy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Nearly 60k active cases in the u.s.

[struggle4progress]

1. "We're number one! We're number one!"

[Wounded Bear]

5. Anybody tired of winning yet?

[BeckyDem]

2. No worries, it will all be fine by Easter.

[RockRaven]

3. We'll be number one in deaths soon...

This next week will see an incredible rise in daily deaths...

[Igel]

4. Possibly.

We have more reported cases that aren't designated "recovered".

How many actual cases we have, or India has, or Russia has ... Unknown.

Data don't speak, they're interpreted and have to be understood. Every number has a footnote. We've just decided they don't matter.

I'm assuming that deaths are less subject to being overlooked.

I'm also assuming, to a large extent, that positive tests / (postive + negative) gives a rough upper bound to the prevalence of the disease in the population. They're testing those suspected, so it'll be more COVID cases than the general population, but as the ratio increases it means there's more COVID present, at least until they start reserving tests for the sickest of the sick.

[unblock]

6. our understanding of crises is nearly always better in hindsight

after the fog of war has dissipated and time permits accumulation and dispassionate evaluation of all the data.

but in the thick of it, this is the best we have to go off, warts and all.

agreed that there are numerous weaknesses of the data in that not everyone who should be tested is getting tested, and that some countries and areas within countries are more thorough than others in testing, and other countries and areas may be just plain lying about their numbers.

obviously there are many cases where people get covid-19, recover are never tested and it's never reported. maybe they were asymptomatic or thought it was just a cold/flu, or maybe even if they suspected it was covid-19 it never became serious enough to feel the need to get tested. even some who die without going to a hospital might did of it but never get tested.

and of course, we're just assuming the tests themselves are accurate, when in reality, virtually all tests yield false positives and/or false negatives even when properly administered.


but with these and other caveats, i think it's still safe to say that america is now, to all intents and purposes, the epicenter of the pandemic.