Germany's coronavirus death rate is much lower than Italy's. (Fortune)
Germany’s coronavirus death rate is much lower than Italy’s. Why experts warn against reading too much into that
BY DAVID MEYER
March 25, 2020 3:00 PM EST
The coronavirus contagion has impacted Europe in very different ways, and nobody is entirely sure why. If you go by a cursory read of the numbers, Germany appears to be experiencing a less fatal outbreak than that of Italy. What jumps out is the death rate—the German rate is 0.4% compared to 9.5% in Italy. There is no shortage of theories why that may be.
Dig deeper into the numbers and more stark differences appear. As Bloomberg has noted, just 18% of German cases involve people over 60 (the group most at risk) while 56% of Italian cases fall into that category. Both countries have an aging population, so it doesn’t appear to be a mere question of demographics. Italian elders are more likely to live with their children, however, so perhaps that’s why a larger proportion of them are getting sick. Or, maybe it’s the fact that Germany carried out widespread testing and containment from the early stage of its epidemic.
It appears that young Germans returning from holiday appear to have sparked the outbreak in that country—maybe, as German virologist Christian Drosten has suggested, the Italian figures are skewed because they miss a lot of infected but asymptomatic young people who never felt the need to go to hospital, where most of the Italian testing takes place. As the Guardian has pointed out, Italy is also conducting more widespread testing of the dead than Germany does, which could partially explain the disparity. Don’t forget to throw into the mix the fact that Germany’s outbreak apparently began weeks after Italy’s, so its health care system is a lot less overwhelmed for now, making it easier to keep Covid-19 sufferers alive.
More here
https://fortune.com/2020/03/25/germany-italy-coronavirus-death-rates/
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