General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums13,250 new confirmed cases today...so far. We will pass China tomorrow
This is a best case scenario as we are significantly undertesting.
It is still growing exponentially.
I don't watch the fake dog and pony shows. Is mega orange asshole mentioning any of that????
IcyPeas
(21,856 posts)I don't recall the president of the United States mentioning that little fact.
In fact he thinks hes doing a great job.
He must've forgotten to mention that in between all his preening.
LisaL
(44,972 posts)Massacure
(7,516 posts)Because that is where the most cases are.
Ms. Toad
(34,055 posts)Still exponential. But it had been growing faster then exponentially while the testing was catching up with reality.
And, even with the slowed increase, I still have us passing China tomorrow.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,013 posts)noise, perhaps? impact more or less testing, day to day?
this graph
https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
Ms. Toad
(34,055 posts)Sort of like taking generics - they are each fine alone, but best not to flip back and forth. Worldometers has not yet finalized the numbers for today, but the number I expect to be the end of the day is only 11,000 more than yesterday.
I've got my numbers running out to the first week in May - yesterday's end of day number shrunk the final number a bit; today's halved it. And, for the first time in a long time my exponential curve was a better fit than the polynomial.
Ms. Toad
(34,055 posts)The rate of growth still slowed a hair, but not as much as it appeared at their normal end of day time. I've now got just shy of 86,000 for tomorrow using the formula that has been most accurate.
dweller
(23,620 posts)at worldometer
we haven't passed Italy yet, but i suppose we could leapfrog both soon
😷
✌🏼
NRaleighLiberal
(60,013 posts)Ms. Toad
(34,055 posts)Based on the best fit polynomial for tomorrow (from 2/27 to present) tomorrow's end of day total will be ~ 82,300 The best fit exponential puts it at 88,300.
NRaleighLiberal
(60,013 posts)but in truth we are all saying the same thing - this is a growing catastrophe
Ms. Toad
(34,055 posts)You're using the technique I used for China (finding the daily multiplier). I've switched to finding the best fit curve over time. But - given that it's all depending on testing we're not doing, we're both pretty darn close.