Stop believing polls

[vercetti2021]

Gallup is a horseshit right wing bias pollster. People remember if he is up. It's only temporary. It's a rally boost. Bush 2 got it, Carter got it. And at allegedly 49%? That's pretty God awful. No one approves of him and it'll fall the more this gets out of hand. He's an incompetent boob.

Carry and do not worry.

[cilla4progress]

1. Wait until

unemployment figures come in on May 1.

[vercetti2021]

2. Excellent point

Yeah wait for that too. He no longer can tout low unemployment.

[msongs]

3. decisions by state governors and local officials are driving unemployment nt

[rockfordfile]

4. I noticed

I noticed that some Sanders supporters are pushing gallup crap

[vercetti2021]

5. Wouldn't surprise me

Same people that are pushing the false rape accusations

[RestoreAmerica2020]

6. Agreed. After 2016...I don't trust a single polster..all I can say is w irk you butt off as if out

..lices depended on it.

[Aquaria]

7. Multiple polls are showing a dead cat bounce his way

when the rubes are scared, they fall in line behind Dear Leader. But you're right, it doesn't last.

That doesn't mean the polls are wrong. Only that the trend exists for a reason.

[ibegurpard]

8. Act like they are true

There are a lot of stupid and evil people out there. We have to activate everyone else and it's not going to be easy. He got elected once and now he's an incumbent.

[BigmanPigman]

9. Good advice.

My dad always said to not believe polls since they can be easily skewed like "studies".

[RockRaven]

10. Even if polls mattered/were right, today's polls mean nothing. A 6-figure death toll is looming,

and NOBODY knows what that is going to do to public opinion/polls, in direction or magnitude.

It is a slow-motion disaster unlike anything seen in a century, and even then it is not directly comparable because this time the public knows A LOT more about what is happening, why and how, and who is or is not doing things to affect the course of the disaster.

Now if I had to predict the future, I'd probably reason thusly:
People tend to credit current conditions to the incumbent, deserved or not. In this particular case, Trump actually deserves it to an astonishingly high degree -- he's made harmful decisions at every turn leading us to the moment we are in, and the moments we will experience in the future. Those future moments -- thousands dying daily, hundreds of thousands dead by election day -- will weigh heavily on voters in November even if they don't show it in the polls right now.

[Journeyman]

11. It's a rally 'round the flag, boys, bounce, and for some he seems competent at the moment . . .

since he's on TV talking all the time. Low information viewers see what he's presently doing as the traits of a leader. As the catastrophuck continues his incompetence will become increasingly evident, especially as he continues to fall apart.

You've got it right, vercetti. Give it time. Time and circumstances and his propensity for erratic behavior. What his supporters saw as endearing yesterday will be infuriating tomorrow, particularly when it's their friends and relatives who suffer and die.

[Tercules]

12. I honestly think there's almost no way Trump can win.

Sure, they said the same things in '16, but things have changed.

Trump won with narrow margins in the rust belt states. Manufacturing didn't come back. Coal didn't come back. There's no anti-Hillary vote this time around. The independents that threw a big middle finger to DC hoping he would shake things up for the better... that sure as hell didn't work out. That's not even counting how massively Trump is bungling the coronavirus.

Some right-leaning independents and centrist conservatives might not vote for Biden, but many won't be able to pull the lever for Trump again. They'll split their ticket. Many will choose Biden, to move on from this psychopath embarrassing the country. The massive vote in smaller red counties that offset the democrat's advantage in the rust belt population centers won't be there this time around. Biden in debates, reminding people what it could be like to have someone actually presidential for president... the contrast will be striking.

The only thing I'm truly worried about is the Supreme Court. I think everyone assumes RGB won't still be on the bench in 2024. Stacking scotus 6-3 -- replacing perhaps both RGB and Thomas -- might be enough for those centrist conservatives to swallow their shame and turn out again.