Italian mayor and Health CEO: Real death toll for Covid-19 is at least 4 times the official numbers

[muriel_volestrangler]

In a time of uncertainty and fear I’m reluctant to pass on startling information based on first pass looks at statistics. But this seems sufficiently compelling and concrete to merit our attention. Here is an article from the Italian daily Corriere Della Sera. It’s written by the mayor of Nembro, a town in the northern hot zone, and health care entrepreneur, both of whom are physicists.
...
Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the town most hard hit in per capita terms by COVID-19. Currently the town has 31 deaths attributed to COVID-19. But when the two authors looked at the total number of deaths registered in the town in January, February and March and compared it to the average for that period in previous years they found the number was dramatically larger. 158 deaths have been registered in the town during that period this year compared to an average of 35 in previous years.

The math is simple: the average of 35 plus the 31 COVID-19 deaths gets you to 66. But the town has recorded almost 100 more deaths on top of that. As the authors say, “The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation.”

The authors applied the same analysis to two other towns and in both came up with anomalous deaths 6.1 times the number officially attributed to COVID-19. The ratio was even higher for Bergamo as a whole.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/this-is-very-important-from-italy-please-read

In Nembro the almost deserted streets, the absent traffic, a strange silence is sometimes interrupted by the siren of an ambulance that carries with it the anxiety and worry that fill the hearts of all in these weeks. In Nembro every member of the community continuously receives news that he never wanted to hear, every day we lose people who were part of our lives and our community. Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. We do not know exactly how many people have been infected, but we know that the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31. We are two physicists: one who became an entrepreneur in the health sector, the other a mayor, in close contact with a very cohesive territory, where we know each other very well. We noticed that something in these official numbers did not come back right, and we decided - together - to check. We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic.

The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation. Demographic statistics have their «constancies» and annual averages change only when completely «new» phenomena arrive. In this case, the number of abnormal deaths compared to the average that Nembro recorded in the period of time in consideration is equal to 4 times those officially attributed to Covid-19. If a comparison is made between the deaths that have occurred and the same period in previous years, the anomaly is even more evident: there is a peak of «other» deaths in correspondence with that of the official deaths from Covid-19.
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It is extremely reasonable to think that these excess deaths are largely elderly or frail people who died at home or in residential facilities, without being hospitalized and without being swabbed to verify that they have actually become infected with Covid-19. Given the decline seen in the last few days after the peak, flock immunity has likely been attained in Nembro. To a certain degree, Nembro represents what would happen in Italy if everyone were infected by CoronaVirus, Covid-19: 600,000 people would die. The numbers of Nembro also suggest that we must take those official deaths and multiply them by at least 4 to have the real impact of Covid-19 in Italy, at this moment.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_marzo_26/the-real-death-toll-for-covid-19-is-at-least-4-times-the-official-numbers-b5af0edc-6eeb-11ea-925b-a0c3cdbe1130.shtml

[Igel]

1. That'll be part of it.

On the other hand, it's easy to overlook factors.

The first thing I'd want to include in a year-over-year comparison is an evaluation of the trend for those towns.

If the deaths for the previous 5 years for that month + this year are 35-35-36-35-34-156, you're onto something.

If they're 30-65-25--55-35-156 you're onto something, but markedly less. Deaths are missed, but how many is a question--is it 90 or 130? Or do I do the fair thing and say it's 110 +/- 20?

Given the population pyramid, though, there's the possibility that the 6 month series shows increasing deaths, and at some point there'll be a jump. Aging populations don't have flat death totals per year.

I've also heard the flip side of this argument. COVID, once diagnosed, is the cause of the death. You're already near death, catch COVID, COVID kills you. My mother died of the flu--because the flu was the immediate cause of death, even though the nursing home had already said it would only be a matter of weeks or months. 90% was other things, but they were "contributing causes".

[tblue37]

2. K&R for visibility. nt

[stopdiggin]

3. is this taking in to account

an overwhelmed health system? Deaths caused by inadequate medical care, drugs, equipment .. and not the virus itself? (I don't know what the health system looked like in this area for that time) In any case .. the central argument and validity of the reporting is unchanged. Deaths due to virus are grossly under-reported.

(we are starting to get reports suggesting something similar in the U.S.)

[ThoughtCriminal]

4. I'm guessing there are a significant number of collateral deaths

When the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, deaths from other causes will also escalate since people cannot get care or may be discouraged from seeking care. Chest pains? Well going to the hospital is out of the question...