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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCalifornia coronavirus surge on par with New York, alarming officials. Cases top 3,000
The number of coronavirus cases in California has surged past 3,000, and officials say the growth rate is so big that it could overwhelm hospitals in the coming days and weeks.
The stateside death toll now stands at 67, far less than the 285 deaths in New York, which has become the national epicenter of the coronavirus crisis. But officials said California needs to brace itself for far more cases and deaths.
"The worst days are still ahead," Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said Wednesday. "We've taken actions earlier and swifter [than other cities], but no one is immune from this virus."
California's top medical advisor said Wednesday that COVID-19 cases continue to double in the state every three to four days.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/california-coronavirus-surge-on-par-with-new-york-alarming-officials-cases-top-3000/ar-BB11Kpl5?li=BBnb7Kz
Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)
pat_k This message was self-deleted by its author.
pat_k
(9,313 posts)If 48 of 5000 (i.e., 1%) random asymptotic people tested positive in Iceland -- a relatively geographically isolated place -- you can bet that at least 1% Americans are infected, and I think we can almost guarantee the percentage is higher.
In any case, even if we go with 1%, then we have about 3.3 million cases in the US, of which we have only detected an incredibly small fraction. If 1% of CA is infected, they have 395,000 cases.
With more testing, of course we'll identify more of those people.
I also think the reported deaths through about last week are vastly underestimated due to the dearth of testing, even of those hospitalized. People hospitalized with COVID-19-like symptoms in states with incredibly limited access to testing (a vast majority of them) have been treated as if they were positive without testing. If they died, they didn't count as a COVID-19 death because the diagnosis wasn't confirmed. In some cases, diagnosis is confirmed later and "old" cases get reported as "new."
We must watch the numbers, but understand how, in the absence of widespread testing, you can't take the reports at face value.
While the number of cases is vastly underestimated, there are cases where reported deaths on a given day are inflated. For example, "new deaths" skyrocketing in NY. As they confirm previous deaths as being COVID-19-related they are counted as "new." This is an increase in the COUNT in the previous 24 hours -- not necessarily a statement that xxx number of COVID-19 positive patients died in the last 24 hours.
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On edit:
If you have any doubt about how fouled up CA's testing, tracking, and reporting is, this quote from an article in The Guardian should provide some insight:
We are cobbling together various approaches, Susan Butler-Wu, an associate professor of clinical pathology at the University of Southern Californias Keck School of Medicine, told the LA Times. The whole thing is badly discombobulated ... I think 100% that the system is broken.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)nothing new in the cases except being a known now