My spouse is very concerned that trump could still win in November.

[Ilsa]

He thinks the way they spin the economy, unemployment, etc will convince too many people sitting on the fence, especially if their 401(k)s and IRAs recover.

[empedocles]

1. Then there is the BS/Putin factors

[Under The Radar]

2. Listen to him, he ain't crazy.

I have the same fear.

[RandySF]

3. He very well could

We have to push hard.

[hurple]

4. I think

Right now it is not just possible he will win, but likely

[ProfessorGAC]

5. 401k and IRA Recovery?

To what? It's still down nearly 25%. There has been no time in the last 41 months that would justify a 25% gain by November.
Voter suppression, disinformation, lying & cheating are obvious concerns, but the market isn't going to recover to the point to make anybody with 15 years of retirement to forget the beating they took.

[Ilsa]

10. I don't see why the market is rising this week.

Not with the macro-economic issue of a pandemic still in effect, yet it's going up. Sure, there are actions like the rescue package helping it, but the big problem is still there.

[Afromania]

12. These companies know their about to get that sweet sweet free cash to do all sorts of garbage.

[Ilsa]

15. Yes, i know, but there is still the pandemic issue that

a bailout might not be enough to resolve, especially when we don't know how long this could last.

[ProfessorGAC]

16. Debt Cash Infusion

If I were investing right now ( my IRA is in "no loss" annuities&quot , or investing other people's $, I wouldn't be counting on seeing anything approaching where it was.
There were systemic economic weaknesses, both micro & macro, that didn't justify the 29k Dow.
The virus exposed them and the direct impact caused a massive, corrective tumble.
The last 2 days were based, IMO, on traders thinking the cash infusion would mitigate some damage, & bargain hunters.

[radius777]

36. Agree, it's a sugar high.

A recession is all but guaranteed: many small businesses will not come back, unemployment will rise to record levels, nobody knows when the virus situation will be resolved and until then the economy (both global and domestic) will not function normally.

[davekriss]

32. Dead cat bounce?

[pat_k]

13. Tragically, I think this could be discounted -- or even blamed on evil, mainly Dem governors who...

... kept things closed, trashing the economy, when Trump wanted it opened up, which would have saved it.

I also think the up tick in Trump approval is due to the harping on how he saved us from the "Chinese virus" with his China travel ban.

Of course we know the extent to which the DT admin's resistance, incompetence, and lack of any sort of infrastructure to respond allowed the virus to circulate, undetected, for weeks prior to the ban. That is, the ban was doomed to failure, both because the virus was already here, and because of the incompetent way it was handled (they didn't actually test anyone "screened" -- CDC test was broken -- they just told those who were symptomatic to go home and quarantine. Anyone who was actually positive, had, of course, already exposed everyone on the plane).

The problem is "It would have been far worse if I hadn't stopped it with ban" is easy to understand. The interconnected sequence of failues, and reason they made it impossible to implement any sort of effective containment EARLY is more difficult to explain and get across.

Simple message has more legs than complicated message.

I hope I'm wrong, but I fear this crisis has increased, not descreased, his chances. If we think otherwise, and get overconfident that "he's toast," that will put the nail in our coffin (along with systematic suppression, disenfranchisement, etc.)

[FBaggins]

28. Nothing justifying a 25% gain by November?

Did you miss that it gained almost that much since Monday?

I certainly wouldn’t rule out the possibility.

[jimfields33]

6. Horrible thought

November is a world away from now. Less then two months ago was impeachment and state of the union. Seems like a year ago.

[stillcool]

7. there's a reason why the GOP will not pass..

any legislation to secure our elections. And it isn't because of fence-sitters.

[redstatebluegirl]

8. So are we, I think that it could happen.

If we allow BS and others to shoot our party in the foot, we will be looking at another 4 years of this moron. The country will be finished.

[NewJeffCT]

11. Democrats have done a crappy job hitting back on the economy for 3 years

and the media keeps saying that the economy is great as well...and, too often I see Democratic talking heads on TV agreeing, "yes, the economy is great, but... "

They need to say that wage gains are due to Democrats at the state and local level raising the minimum wage.

[TwilightZone]

22. When have any Democrats said the economy is great?

Seems like the opposite is usually the case.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/475415-candidates-say-trump-economy-not-working-for-most-americans

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/11/politics/pew-economy-democrats-republicans-views/index.html

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-12-19/december-democratic-debate-economy-trump

[hlthe2b]

14. Not to worry...

If Trump keeps on as he is now, we'll all be dead.

Cold Comfort? Literally?

[greenjar_01]

17. Trump could still win in November

Anybody who thinks it's impossible is kidding themselves.

[Demovictory9]

20. yep. incentive to work like crazy to make sure it doesn't happen - blue wave #2

[Miguelito Loveless]

18. He will stay, even if he loses

The only way for him to stay our of jail is stay in power.

[GeorgeGist]

19. Tell your spouse ...

it's a lot faster falling down than it is climbing back up. No way the economy is back by Nov.

[Brainfodder]

21. HELL NO! But why....

You see him gaining votes after 100,000+ Americans die under his "watch"?
[and a high % of Trumpers is surely in the random death mix, see ignoramus cocky dead pastor story of today!]

You see him surviving 10 BILLION in TV ad buys that feature his own words in swing states?
[Guessing it will be at least that high come deaths in the high #'s, fear tends to loosen wallets?]

You see him surviving the level of pissed off that is on the horizon?
[Back to the deaths under his watch #]

Good Luck!

[customerserviceguy]

23. I share her fears

to some degree, but not as bad as I did a couple of weeks ago. I really think the US death toll will turn this from an inconvenience in the minds of many Americans who might have voted for Trump, to a genuine tragedy.

[GulfCoast66]

24. He very well could.

[Crunchy Frog]

25. I'm very worried too. We are not living in normal times.

[larwdem]

26. I agree

were is bloomburg and his tv adds?

[OnDoutside]

27. They won't have a vaccine until some time next year. This is not going anywhere.

[Poiuyt]

29. I think the coronavirus situation is helping trump

It's giving him an opportunity to look "presidential." People are used to him screaming at his rallies. Even though he's just babbling, it looks superficially that he's in control.

[Butterflylady]

33. He couldn't look presidential if you put a sign around his neck that said

I'm the president. And second there are so many people that really, really hate him and that's not gonna change no matter what shape the economy is in.
Last but not least, Joe is going beat him bad.

Yes I'm a optimist, always was and always will be!!!

[HarlanPepper]

30. I'm encouraged by the responses in this thread

Looks like a whole lot of people who know it’s still going to take a lot of work to beat him. I take that as a good sign.

[Laelth]

31. Ignore your spouse.

I am concerned about many things. Trump being re-elected is not one of them.



-Laelth

[democrattotheend]

34. So am I

I thought this would show people why we actually want a functional government and a presdient who at least pretends to care, but so far it seems to be having the opposite effect. Yes, Trump's bounce is small and his approval rating on handling the pandemic is far lower than President Obama's ratings for handling Sandy or President Bush's ratings for handling 9/11, but Democrats also haven't been holding their fire the way they did after 9/11, so the bounce may not evaporate. Sadly, 40-45% of the country believes Democrats and the media are desperate to take Trump down and don't believe anything they say about him. I think we have a chance to win but it's by no means guaranteed. And in some sense we are unlucky because our likely nominee, despite clearly having the credentials and experience to handle this, isn't in the government right now and thus doesn't have an easy way to show the contrast. He's in the same tough position that Romney was in after Sandy hit, although at least there are many months left so hopefully Biden will be able to get back into the conversation at some point. Still, it would be better if our likely nominee were a sitting governor like Cuomo who had a natural platform to show contrast.

[Bucky]

35. Yes, it's a very real possibility - it's gonna be close.

He is sitting at a personal best in approval for his handling of the coronavirus crisis.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/donald-trump-gallup-approval-polling/index.html

[Bonx]

37. No way Drumpf wins again. We have Biden and are on the right side of history.

[Raine]

38. A very likely possibility

IMO