Most recent polling from 538 show Trump up. WTF? Talk me down.

[Hamlette]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

[Loki Liesmith]

1. What did you expect to happen?

[Doreen]

2. Yeah, this is scaring me. I have a terrible feeling he is going to win.

[Turin_C3PO]

3. We still have

7 months until the elections. His approval rating can and will go down. This is a temporary bump, I believe.

[Loki Liesmith]

4. The polling news for him has been awful.

I don’t know why DUers get so worked up over so little.

[Loki Liesmith]

5. National crisis and he can't break 50%?

That’s laughable and not worth worrying about.

[Hamlette]

6. true, thanks, I needed that.

[NewJeffCT]

7. agreed - after 9/11

Bush Jr was around 90% or higher nationally, including incredibly high numbers among Democrats (75/80%?)

[uponit7771]

19. +1, Bush 2 was at 90% post 911 attack

[DinahMoeHum]

8. What's the fuss? He STILL hasn't cracked 50%

Beyond the usual "rally 'round the flag" bullshit, his approval numbers are not really going up.

He's been polling in the 40s for the longest time, and there's no real evidence that the numbers beyond his base have risen. Or ever will rise.

Real polling, IMO, won’t be seen for weeks. And believe me, when it happens, it won't be pretty for him.

Making people bankrupt and helping cause the death of their loved ones ain't gonna play well even in the red states.

And there's every reason to believe that when COVID-19 peaks in the red states, like Florida, Texas and Arizona, they'll fare even worse because their state governments didn't do enough to prepare their populations.

Just my 2 cents.





#newrostrong

[JCMach1]

9. Several Reasons why this is a dead cat bounce:

1. Rent/Mortgages due. (no plan to pause rent/mortgages)
2. Unemployment will worsen more.
3. No TP (no seriously)
4. Delay (and not very much) monetary help for people
5. Cases and deaths are about to explode


I am sure you guys can add more...

[ECSkeptic]

10. Read Rachel Bitecofer's analysis in this thread:

Click on the graph below, then click 'Show this thread'

Link to tweet

Note her point about the 'Rally Around the Flag' effect.

[magicarpet]

11. People don't take this son of a bitch seriously.

This con man is very dangerous. He knows the science of media penetration. He knows just what strings to pull to reach and manipulate his base. They are Nazi idiots and very receptive and malleable to Dear Leader's wants/needs. They will follow him through the gates of hell and back. His Nazi henchman Brian Parscale in another con man piece of work that also knows how to play the media and internets. Parscale has been busy the last four years recruiting new young Nazi white supremacists on college campuses. We better hope this Coronavirus nibbles into trDumpie's voter base and a big chunk of re state voters do not show up at the ballot box but check in at the local cemetery.

Four more years of trDumpie will happen if we do not keep on our toes around the clock between now and November 2020. This is not going to be the cake walk most believe to wrestle control of our government back from these Fascist monsters. Mark my words.

[Jersey Devil]

12. It is the rally round the flag bounce - GW Bush was over 90 approval during Desert Storm

Trump can't even get to 50. It will pass.

[albacore]

13. One thing to remember...

[albacore]

14. ....and...

[Poeraria]

15. Worry wont help.

Work. Organize. Donate. Volunteer. Vote. Bring 5 friends to vote (or make certain they absentee).

[Amishman]

16. people are in a crisis mentality which means rally around the flag

give it six months and let the imminent recession hit. He's toast.

[LizBeth]

17. I do not get people flipping out about this. A Presidents regular numbers are over 50% and in crisis

80-90%. Not breaking 50% is bad numbers. Why are we promoting this as if it is a win for Trump. It is BAD news for Trump. This is ridiculous the responses.

[TreasonousBastard]

18. Well, nobody took him seriously 4 years ago and look what happened...

Some people are really into the "once burned..." thing.

[LizBeth]

20. Right. And it was not serious. A whole lot of shit happened to make that happen.

You are right. Republicans can take over our vote, not allow an election after the criminal, immoral, unethical behavior that has been allowed over the last three years and Trump can win. It has nothing to do with taking this 48% seriously.

It has to do with a WHOLE lot of shit happening to make it so.

Seriously? Ya, I take Trump and his criminal element, Republicans and connect with Putin seriously. That is not the voter.

[Baclava]

21. 'Wartime prez' my ass, his army is going in wrapped in garbage bags, they won't be voting for him!

[JHB]

22. Talking you down is easy...

Social distance yourself from the "most recent polling".

Take a break from it. Take another peek at it in say, May.

[fescuerescue]

23. This is the beginning of the end

Trump has nowhere but down to go.

[pat_k]

24. Wish I could, but the crisis is more likely to help him than hurt him.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13187609

[Gothmog]

25. No, Trump is not going to suddenly become FDR

Why I am not concerned about trump's meager polling bounce

Link to tweet

First, let’s note that this increase in Trump’s approval is relatively small, given that we’re in the midst of one of the most monumental crises in American history.

In such extraordinary circumstances, the president’s approval would normally be shooting up. At times like these, Americans are looking for comfort. They want to believe that the president and the government are in control.

When Lyndon B. Johnson took over after John F. Kennedy’s assassination, his approval rating was 78 percent, even though he hadn’t done anything yet. Likewise, Gerald Ford had a 71 percent approval upon taking office during Watergate; it didn’t fall until he pardoned Richard M. Nixon. (We’re using Gallup’s historical data.)….

And after 9/11, George W. Bush’s approval soared to 90 percent. This is the historical pattern: In times of crisis, the president’s approval will go up almost regardless of whether he’s doing a good job or not.

So if in the midst of a public health nightmare and a horrific looming recession, Trump’s approval goes up by a few points, it’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of his presidency.

Improvements in Trump’s approval will likely remain relatively constrained compared to those historical standards, because as everyone knows, we’re in a period of intense polarization. There are fewer so-called “real” independents (who don’t actually lean to one party), and nearly all those who do associate with a party will never give thumbs up to a presidential candidate from the other party.....

What’s more, built-in perceptions of Trump will remain. As Aaron Blake notes, the new Post/ABC poll showing Trump’s approval rising also finds a large majority — 58 percent — think Trump reacted too slowly to the crisis. If things go seriously south, then that built-in sense that Trump botched the early response could compound public blame going forward, particularly since he’ll likely keep up with the depraved public spectacles.

[emmaverybo]

26. Similar to Stockholm hostage syndrome. Wears off.

[AlexSFCA]

27. trump approval rating is at the highest level

No doubt. I was alarmed when some of my friends who are dems alluded that they don’t blame trump for coronavirus handling. As of right now, I think trump is still going to win. If pandemic is over by summer, economy starts growing again with stock market getting back to where it was before the pandemic... He will easily win. He only cares about winning. He turned the pandemic into political strategy.

[smirkymonkey]

28. No. Fuck No.

This will not happen. It can not happen.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

29. Do not believe the contorted thinking and posts telling you to ignore

The polls...we let him get ahead. Plain and simple. We have no leader and our former presidents are pretty much silent.

[Poiuyt]

30. We shouldn't ignore polls just because we don't like what they say.

And you're right. The Democrats have been pretty quiet lately.

[Gothmog]

31. From Nate

Link to tweet

?s=20