General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhat does post peak look like?
Is there anything good to read about that?
Im not going to second guess what epidemiologists think. I have read there is a range of estimates and am guessing that peak will occur at different times. Im curious about thing like
What does the other side of the peak look like? We were slow to lock down and people have been tightening up their isolation. Is it likely to be a slow decline or match the build up or something else?
What makes it the peak? How much does isolation vs immunity vs other factors play in stopping the increase?
At some point scientists will say its ok to go out at least in some communities. Whats needed in terms of random testing or other triggers that would cause us to quickly go back to lock down. Ive read there could be multiple waves
What are the next best steps and what is needed? If we had antibody and infection tests readily available how would those be used? For example, if i knew I was immune and not infectious would that mean its ok to be around or would that just make others more likely to inappropriately end isolation?
We are fortunate enough to be working from home. Were going to be very slow in ending isolation not just to avoid infection but to not risk infecting others.
gibraltar72
(7,498 posts)where someone went back to work awaiting test. Anecdotal but in my little burg they say an employee of biggest employer was sick enough to get test, but went back to work before results. Tests are showing us where we were. Not where we are.
Midnightwalk
(3,131 posts)But this is the type of that that is easy for amateurs like me to get wrong.
Itd be nice to start with what experts say.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)Midnightwalk
(3,131 posts)Unless say theres testing available that says Im likely already immune and also cant infect anyone else.
uponit7771
(90,301 posts)Baclava
(12,047 posts)Midnightwalk
(3,131 posts)Clearly all the experts can do is project.
I believe nothing the whitehouse says.
But the experts probably known things like what theyll be looking for and what testing would help.
For example, if they ordered enough test kits how much would that change the time we need to lock down? That is, the thought process might change what we do today to influence whether were locked down say 4 vs 8 weeks after peak.
At least I would he encouraged to know that was being worked on rather than the stupid everything will be fine by easter bs.
People are talking like its over at the peak. Knowing what else is involved might clarify that it wont be.
Ms. Toad
(33,980 posts)Sort of like aftershocks after an earthquake.
Midnightwalk
(3,131 posts)Last edited Sat Mar 28, 2020, 07:47 PM - Edit history (1)
Would we need to have enough ongoing testing to detect that lockdown should happen again? Should we lock down again if other communities see infection or hospitalization rates increase?
Im not in a huge rush to get back out although it would be nice. Im actually more interested in whether we have the right preparations like tests available when controls start to be lifted. Seems like there is a lot to do now even if that doesnt happen for say 8 weeks.
My ulterior motive is counter acting the impression that reaching peak means its safer.
[link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf]
Edit to add link from ms toad. Thanks
Ms. Toad
(33,980 posts)P12 has a graph showing waves and modeling successive suppression strategies.
Midnightwalk
(3,131 posts)Marrah_Goodman
(1,586 posts)However, unless we are testing much much more people we won't really know when that is happening.
pat_k
(9,313 posts)Use drop-downs for state-specific
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections