Four factors will determine his fate

[struggle4progress]

By Jennifer Rubin
March 27, 2020 at 1:23 p.m. EDT

... most Americans (53 percent in the latest Fox News poll) think the federal government reacted too slowly. As NPR reports: “It’s possible current polling is a lagging indicator from Trump publicly taking the virus more seriously than he had been previously. Surveys so far largely aren’t reflecting Trump’s pivot this week to suggesting he wants to reopen the economy within weeks.” We are going to see eight months of stories about the Trump administration’s failures and their effects on the outcome of the pandemic ...

President George W. Bush’s approval soared to 90 percent after 9/11; President George H.W. Bush’s approval rose to nearly 80 percent in 1992 after the Gulf War. As much as the media plays up the Trump base’s imperviousness to bad news and evidence of Trump’s mendacity and incompetence, an even larger share of the country believes that there is nothing Trump could do to vindicate himself ...

... the 2020 presidential election, more than any ever, will be a referendum on Trump. Before the virus struck, the economy was considered his lifeline. If we are in a recession — or perhaps even a depression, with unemployment numbers in double digits and the stock market lower than it was when Trump started — it is hard to see what Trump will claim as his great achievement. Trump’s success depends on what is now unknowable, namely the toll the virus takes on Americans’ lives and livelihood.

... The “pro-life” party shows itself to be horrifically indifferent to human life. That formula might “work” so long as the majority of deaths are located in New York, New Jersey and California. But perhaps when the disease shifts to states that backed Trump — such as Florida, Georgia, Michigan or Louisiana — the trade-off might suddenly strike many as monstrous. When Trump starts talking about their parents, friends and colleagues, even Trump’s cultists might take offense. Moreover, when the death toll climbs and the recession deepens in their states, Trump’s happy talk about a quick recovery might seem cruel and stupid ...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/27/four-factors-will-determine-trumps-fate/

[elleng]

1. horrifically indifferent to human life

[Gothmog]

2. No, Trump is not going to suddenly become FDR

Why I am not concerned about trump's meager polling bounce

Link to tweet

First, let’s note that this increase in Trump’s approval is relatively small, given that we’re in the midst of one of the most monumental crises in American history.

In such extraordinary circumstances, the president’s approval would normally be shooting up. At times like these, Americans are looking for comfort. They want to believe that the president and the government are in control.

When Lyndon B. Johnson took over after John F. Kennedy’s assassination, his approval rating was 78 percent, even though he hadn’t done anything yet. Likewise, Gerald Ford had a 71 percent approval upon taking office during Watergate; it didn’t fall until he pardoned Richard M. Nixon. (We’re using Gallup’s historical data.)….

And after 9/11, George W. Bush’s approval soared to 90 percent. This is the historical pattern: In times of crisis, the president’s approval will go up almost regardless of whether he’s doing a good job or not.

So if in the midst of a public health nightmare and a horrific looming recession, Trump’s approval goes up by a few points, it’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of his presidency.

Improvements in Trump’s approval will likely remain relatively constrained compared to those historical standards, because as everyone knows, we’re in a period of intense polarization. There are fewer so-called “real” independents (who don’t actually lean to one party), and nearly all those who do associate with a party will never give thumbs up to a presidential candidate from the other party.....

What’s more, built-in perceptions of Trump will remain. As Aaron Blake notes, the new Post/ABC poll showing Trump’s approval rising also finds a large majority — 58 percent — think Trump reacted too slowly to the crisis. If things go seriously south, then that built-in sense that Trump botched the early response could compound public blame going forward, particularly since he’ll likely keep up with the depraved public spectacles.