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ffr

(22,663 posts)
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:17 AM Mar 2020

Disturbing Covid-19 trend if we're on Italy's trajectory, playing with the numbers

We could be staring down at a very realistic 53,000 - 237,000 deaths before the tolls begin to subside and there's no evidence that either this republican administration will do anything to prevent that from happening.

If you look at how we're moving up in the deaths per 1 million people category, you'll notice we've gone from 2 deaths/1 M to 7 in a matter of days. We know we don't have proper testing because tRump has dismantled or fired our pandemic security investigators, leaving our country directionless. We have little in the way of testing to accurately determine how bad we really are, so 237,000 dead could be a drop in the bucket.

Right now, Italy's deaths per 1 M stand at 166. Doing the math, they are 23.71 times higher than us as we climb.

If anything, republican incompetence will likely increase the probability that this will be one of the great preventable tragedies in our nation's history, had we just elected Hillary Clinton and more supposedly unlikable democrats at every opportunity.

Trump team failed to follow NSC’s pandemic playbook
...According to a previously unrevealed White House playbook, the government should’ve begun a federal-wide effort to procure that personal protective equipment at least two months ago.


But Trump’s aides were told to expect a potential pandemic, ranging from a tabletop exercise that the outgoing Obama administration prepared for the president’s incoming aides to a “Crimson Contagion” scenario that health officials undertook just last year and modeled out potential risks of a global infectious disease threat. Trump’s deputies also have said that their coronavirus response relies on a federal playbook, specifically referring to a strategy laid out by the Centers for Disease Control.

It is not clear if the administration’s failure to follow the NSC playbook was the result of an oversight or a deliberate decision to follow a different course. - Politico


It is clear to me. This is deliberate retribution against what tRump perceives as his enemies; Americans in blue states, whether democrats, liberals, progressives or members of his republican cult45.
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Disturbing Covid-19 trend if we're on Italy's trajectory, playing with the numbers (Original Post) ffr Mar 2020 OP
Co-conspirators in murder by depraved indifference: trump, Fox, Limbaugh, GOP Hermit-The-Prog Mar 2020 #1
He lives for revenge. BigmanPigman Mar 2020 #2
I like the way you think, Bigman. smirkymonkey Mar 2020 #4
I don't mean to imply that DT wouldn't do something like this, but I doubt it this time because napi21 Mar 2020 #3
Then you are naive and could be putting your personal safety in jeopardy. ffr Mar 2020 #5
Trump wants to hurt Cuomo and Inslee Eyeball_Kid Mar 2020 #12
"He'll do everything to stay in. He must." BigmanPigman Mar 2020 #15
Trump took children away from parents legally seeking help, he's a monster uponit7771 Mar 2020 #18
A health official in the UK said they would be lucky if death toll stayed below 20,000. bullwinkle428 Mar 2020 #6
Madrid had to convert their ice rink into a morgue pecosbob Mar 2020 #7
Dr. Irwin Redlener estimated between 500,000 to 1.5 million U.S. deaths... blitzen Mar 2020 #8
24 times higher only takes 5 1/2 doubling periods to exceed. US Deaths doubling in under 3 days. Bernardo de La Paz Mar 2020 #9
Wish there was an organized work strike planned. ffr Mar 2020 #13
Yup. There needs be loud calls for 1) his resignation or 2) 25th or 3) delegation of Rs to the WH.nt Bernardo de La Paz Mar 2020 #14
Man remember the good old days when we were just worried about the possibility of... Initech Mar 2020 #10
Criminal, hoping for a speedy trial. Canoe52 Mar 2020 #11
I am hoping for a speedy death, tRump's that is. BigmanPigman Mar 2020 #16
Our trajectory is much steeper than Italy's. Squinch Mar 2020 #17

BigmanPigman

(51,552 posts)
2. He lives for revenge.
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:24 AM
Mar 2020

He is joyous when a Dem or a blue state resident gets ill. He is a true sadist. Some Goodfella needs to pay him a visit.

 

smirkymonkey

(63,221 posts)
4. I like the way you think, Bigman.
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:27 AM
Mar 2020

I would like to think there is someone from his past that has a score to settle with him.

napi21

(45,806 posts)
3. I don't mean to imply that DT wouldn't do something like this, but I doubt it this time because
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:25 AM
Mar 2020

there's no way he could determine the political preference of the victims and I doubt he'd be willing to sacrifice the votes of possible Pub supporters.

ffr

(22,663 posts)
5. Then you are naive and could be putting your personal safety in jeopardy.
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:29 AM
Mar 2020
Trump sends Florida more PPE than requested while he shorts blue states

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213193432

Eyeball_Kid

(7,429 posts)
12. Trump wants to hurt Cuomo and Inslee
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:51 AM
Mar 2020

The people who die because of Trump's actions mean nothing to him. They're just pawns. He's going after the governors because they're visible figureheads for the Dem Party who can be mocked by him to the delight of his followers.

Trump will refuse to leave the White House. Watch. I'd say there's an 80% chance that he'll rig the election or do something bombastic to remain in office beyond 2020. If he leaves office, he'll spend the rest of his days in Court, at best. He'll have no quality of life. So remaining in office is his only choice. And he'll do everything to stay in. He must.

BigmanPigman

(51,552 posts)
15. "He'll do everything to stay in. He must."
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 01:19 AM
Mar 2020

And anything to stay in. This is life or death FOR HIM, not the virus. He is more DANGEROUS now than ever.

bullwinkle428

(20,628 posts)
6. A health official in the UK said they would be lucky if death toll stayed below 20,000.
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:30 AM
Mar 2020

We are about 6x the population of the UK, so it's not hard to do the math.

pecosbob

(7,531 posts)
7. Madrid had to convert their ice rink into a morgue
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:31 AM
Mar 2020

Maybe people here will wake up when the Hard Rock Stadium is filled with bodies

blitzen

(4,572 posts)
8. Dr. Irwin Redlener estimated between 500,000 to 1.5 million U.S. deaths...
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:31 AM
Mar 2020

when he was interviewed on MSNBC the other night. Unfortunately, he knows his stuff.

That number would be for the entire cycle, I assume up until there is a vaccine. It will come back in the Fall after subsiding this summer.

Bernardo de La Paz

(48,925 posts)
9. 24 times higher only takes 5 1/2 doubling periods to exceed. US Deaths doubling in under 3 days.
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:32 AM
Mar 2020

5 1/2 * 3 is about 17 days.

You can track your projections against this model, where "The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures."

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

They project peaks in mid April and 81,000 deaths by August.



ffr

(22,663 posts)
13. Wish there was an organized work strike planned.
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:52 AM
Mar 2020

We need to get the attention of republicans to step aside so we can remove tRump.

I'm 80/20% thinking about quitting my job, for the safety of my family. I have to work for and around republicans who are not taking this or protections seriously.

Initech

(100,013 posts)
10. Man remember the good old days when we were just worried about the possibility of...
Sun Mar 29, 2020, 12:45 AM
Mar 2020

Trump shooting someone on 5th Avenue and getting away with it? Trump is going to get an entire city's worth of people killed over petty divisiveness and he'll probably still get away with it. Fuck.

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