Michigan numbers out still horrifying but slightly fewer new cases.

[gibraltar72]

Think I figured out why counties aren't showing true numbers. Looks like prisoners are being listed as other rather than where they actually are. Nice catchall. Not nice of me but hope some of the 10 in my county were the ones who had a constitution party to show no woman Democrat governor was gonna tell them what to do.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

1. I don't have much confidence in the number of cases reported, we don't have enough tests

or test facilities. I have more confidence in the number of reported deaths. But even there, I don't know if all "pneumonia" deaths are tested for covid-19.

[gibraltar72]

2. We only know where we've been. not where we are.

[Igel]

4. Yes, but if that's the choice, it's an easy one.

The deaths give us an idea where we were.

The reported cases ... maybe, maybe not. Maybe they make it worse than it is, maybe they underreport.

I have this rough "1 death = 500 cases" I'm working off of. The number's different if there are more tests, fewer tests, if they reserve tests for really sick people or include drive up tests.

I also like looking at the positive test/total test ratio. It would appear to have the same drawback but if you use it just as an upper bound on the actual infection rate in the population it's not too bad. (Unless they're seriously rationing the tests, which is getting less and less likely--now, getting a lot of the testing sites to *report* their tests, esp. their negative tests, that's a problem. It just makes the upper bound far too high. I figure that there's no way it's going to underreport.

[Pathwalker]

3. I have 2 family members on the front line in Detroit,

they are working in the ERs of 2 different hospitals, where the situation is VERY dire. No masks, no wipes, no PPE, yet they are soldiering on. My husband and son are on a mercy mission to deliver 3 donated boxes of surgical masks at a parking lot halfway to them, so they can remain a safe distance apart. I ask anyone who reads this to send prayers/good thoughts to all of those heroes risking their lives for all of us - please.

[gibraltar72]

5. That Is a great idea. Someone needs to set up a network like Pony Express. To get stuff where it

needs to go. A great way to volunteer. I'm sure if I can think of it greater minds already have.

[pat_k]

6. Projection assuming the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measu

Michigan
Projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections (Select state from drop-down)

_______________________________________
4/8 peak resource use

20,717 all beds needed (range 6,434 - 50,616)
10,154 all beds available
10,563 shortage (worst case shortage 40,462)

3,306 ICU beds needed (range 942 - 6,884)
742 ICU beds avaialble
2,584 shortage (worst case shortage 6,142)

1,785 invasive ventilators needed (503 - 4,767)

_________________________________
Deaths projected to August 4, 2020

4,061 (range 1,361 to 10,955)

224 Peak deaths per day (April 12) (range 59-612)