"The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Florida is doubling every three days.

[William769]

Link to tweet

We have a trump clone as a Governor.

[murielm99]

1. Thanks, William.

They have so many elderly people there.

[William769]

2. I'm knocking on that door myself.

[ProfessorGAC]

3. Could Be Bad!!!

Here in IL, went from 46 to over 5,000 in 16 days, AFTER the stay at home, school & restaurant closure rules went into place.
About 120x increase in 16 days. That's about doubling every 2.5 days.
This was AFTER the low contact rules went into place.
There were a couple days where the increase % was 50 to 80.
We now have cases in something like 70% of our 102 counties.

[murielm99]

20. We have our first case in Ogle County.

I think it is in Rochelle. That is our largest town, with a little over 9,500 people. Byron, where the nuclear plant is located, is under 4,000. But a lot of people come there to work from outside the county.

This may not seem like a big deal to everyone who lives in or near the epicenter. It is still scary to us here. I hope our hospitals can cope.

[ProfessorGAC]

21. We Have 224

6 deaths. Will is the 4th most populated county so this is not unexpected.
I just counted the list. Still 52 counties with zero, so that 70% number I heard on the radio was wrong.
In looking at this stuff, I did note we have here:
3 counties with <5,000 people
15 counties with <10,000, and
45 counties with under 20,000.
Just in our little exurban area we've got 3 towns of 5-6k and another of >3k. All within 6 or 8 miles. And people in the city consider us South America.
So, I'm not surprised a lot of those counties are zero. Hardly anybody lives there!

[ThoughtCriminal]

4. I suspect that it is a combination

of spreading infection and hopefully, more testing.

[pat_k]

13. Yes

See post 12 below

[brer cat]

5. Sadly for us...

they are fleeing to the north Georgia mountains where we have no confirmed cases. That won't last long!

[William769]

6. March 26th com pared to today

March 26th
My County

Lee
Total cases
56
Active
53
Recovered
-
Fatal
3


Today
Total cases
164
Active
158
Recovered
-
Fatal
6

[brer cat]

9. That is scary!

Stay safe, Bill.

[William769]

10. Thank you and I did not mean to post this to you.

But it's posted in here.

I have thought about going to my birth place in Kentucky. The only problem is getting there from here.

[brer cat]

11. Long drive with no where to stop and have meals and rest.

[Alex4Martinez]

7. That's happening nationwide, on average. Here's a useful link or two:

This page shows the trends nationally:

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

The US is doubling every three days.

This second link shows graphs for each state. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/tracking-coronavirus-u-s-real-time-visualizations/

[William769]

8. Thanks.

[pat_k]

14. See also tracking project spearheaded by the Altantic

https://covidtracking.com/data/

Tracks
Positive Negative Pending Hospitalized Deaths Total Tests

US daily cumulative totals
https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

Also have data by state

(not all states report pending and hospitalized, so those numbers are off for US totals).

[pat_k]

12. Cases doubled every 3 data due to testing roughly doubling every 3 days since 3/21

Last edited Mon Mar 30, 2020, 11:27 PM - Edit history (1)

It's hard to gauge the actual increase in number of cases because the increase is a direct result of testing more.

3/21 6,579 tested
3/24 14,539 tested
3/27 30,951 tested
3/30 53,698 tested

For every additional 10,000 tested expect at least 120 more confirmed/detected cases at current rate of positives (12%). That number could go down if they do more "surveillance" testing to get to actual incidence in the population vs. testing clearly ill people. (Or could go up with overall rise in incidence.)

Note: They have only tested about 230 per 100,000. Compare to NY at about 890 per 100,000

Shot at estimating real numbers

Assume 3%* of the roughly 21 million in FL ultimately infected in this "wave." that's 630,000 actual cases (not detected cases).

At a mortality rate of 1.5%** that's about 10,000 deaths.

___________________

* 3% from estimate that 97% percent of the population will remain vulnerable after the first wave. (Estimate assumes strong social distancing and other precautions remain in place.)

** Mortality rate of 1.5% from this article)

[Blue_true]

15. It has been pretty hot and humid here, 80s.

My guess is the virus infects in areas that are ideal for it, air conditioned places with low humidity, there is plenty of that in Florida.

[blitzen]

16. I think it's UV light that stifles the virus; not sure about heat/humidity. n/t

[DFW]

17. This may seem cruel.............

But I hope most of them occur in white-only churches that congregate in numbers far superior to those recommended as safe by the more stringent states.

Update on an old parable:

Recently deceased COVID-19 victim meets God:
"Lord, I prayed to you, why didn't you save me?"

God:
"Hey, I tried. I sent you the best doctor within a three hundred mile radius. You called him a liberal propagator of fake news. I did what you asked, and you called my help a 'rotten socialist.' Sorry, that was your call. It's not my fault if you preferred to listen to some phony pastor who was working with my competition."

[MoonlitKnight]

18. Positives are just under 10% of those tested in Florida

71 dead
715 hospitalized
5489 cases
56702 tested

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

[Demonaut]

19. what is Desantis's strategy?

[hatrack]

22. Tax cuts!!!