Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

[MelissaB]

Coronavirus job losses could total 47 million, unemployment rate may hit 32%, Fed estimates

Key Points

*The coronavirus economic freeze could cost 47 million jobs and send the unemployment rate past 32%, according to St. Louis Fed projections.

*There are nearly 67 million Americans working in jobs that are at a high risk of layoffs, according to the analysis.

*St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said last week that the initial estimates are grim but the plunge should be short-lived.

Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to a Federal Reserve estimate.

Economists at the Fed’s St. Louis district project total employment reductions of 47 million, which would translate to a 32.1% unemployment rate, according to a recent analysis of how bad things could get.

The projections are even worse than St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s much-publicized estimate of 30%. They reflect the high nature of at-risk jobs that ultimately could be lost to a government-induced economic freeze aimed at halting the coronavirus spread.

“These are very large numbers by historical standards, but this is a rather unique shock that is unlike any other experienced by the U.S. economy in the last 100 years,” St. Louis Fed economist Miguel Faria-e-Castro wrote in a research paper posted last week.

More: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html

[cilla4progress]

1. Tragic.

Also, hate to say it but... you know what I'm thinking...

[uponit7771]

2. K&R, without nationwide unfettered testing this isn't going to be over on 4/30

[nitpicker]

3. It's very simple

If people are working from home, almost no one is ordering takeout/delivery from Restaurant Row next to the office.

So restaurants close for the time being.

And neither the office worker nor the waiter is taking their car to the garage near Restaurant Row ((unless forced to for inspections)).

Ditto for other small shops in the area.

So the garage owner tries to limp along with one helper instead of three.

And it cascades on from there.

[nitpicker]

4. I forgot to mention McDonalds and its ilk

Sure, the hotels are (mostly) closed, so there's not much need for the seating area.

But if you lost your job, a burger and fries cost as much as 2 dozen ramen at the dollar store.

What are you going to feed your kids for dinner?

[SoCalNative]

5. First you have to be able to find the ramen

they haven't had it anywhere around me in weeks