New Cases of COVID-19 in the US appear to be going linear!

[Loki Liesmith]

About 20k added each day for the last 3-4 days or so.
We may be off the exponential growth track!

Some significant fraction of this is New York slowing down.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

[drray23]

1. Well it's because New York is the bulk of the cases right now

And because of their efforts they are bending the curve. However, I'm worried that once Florida and other red states come online with full blown spread of Covid-19, the curve wont stay bend for long.

[Loki Liesmith]

2. Yep. I expect the stupid states will hurt the curve

Still it’s nice to see confirmation that science works.

[Loki Liesmith]

3. Jesus wth was that typo?

[LonePirate]

4. Don't count on it.

CA and WA have been sheltering for a while. NY is still in the midst will no strong sheltering order. Red states across the south and some midwestern states are not doing much testing. The number is cases is totally dependent on testing that is largely not taking place.

The better measure to use is number of deaths. When those start to flatline or drop, then you will know cases have dropped since deaths follow cases by 1-2 weeks.

[coti]

5. Yeah, it's leveling briefly because the denser-populated, more liberal states are responding

in a constructive way. But as the virus spreads into the more rural areas where there's Trump-style, shitgibbon "leadership" ignoring the problem it will start getting worse again.

That and deaths are still increasing exponentially.

[Loki Liesmith]

6. Sure deaths lag.

But this does give us some idea of the transfer function between particular levels of social distancing and reductions in curve acceleration.

[Squinch]

7. Red states aren't testing.

[alittlelark]

8. The 'Spring Breaker' spread has not even started.

[uponit7771]

9. US Per capita test is horrible, we'll know once the full testing is out which I don't think it will

... be because Trump doesn't want his numbers going up

[Ms. Toad]

10. Today there was a very slight increase in the rate of growth of new cases

But this is day 8 of a generally declining rate of growth.

Daily multiplier (# on prior day x daily multiplier = # of cases today)

3/22 - 1.385797497
3.23 - 1.303732189
3/24 - 1.253526924
3/25 - 1.244204075
3/26 - 1.252510592
3/27 - 1.218774507
3/28 - 1.186812131
3/29 - 1.149452168
3/30 - 1.15344921

You can see the slight increase on 3/26 and 3/30. These are small enough blips that they are likely the result of time-of-reporting mismatches between the raw data and worldometers end-of-day.

As always - we are not yet testing completely. I expect there will be a big jump over a period of time when there is finally full access to testing (comparable to the increase in China on 2/12 & 2/13 when they changed their criteria for diagnosing COVID 19). The timing seems to be similar to China - the rate of growth had started to decrease when there was a short period of nearly vertical growth, but then the turn-down continued uninterrupted.

In China the lock-down was more uniform - so populated states where there are not stay-at-hoem orders might create an explosion, as well.

But - for now - it looks like the extreme measures are flattening the curve so we are climing the hill, rather than the mountain. Still climbing - and a ways from the peak still, but that was the goal.