I think posts about USA "leading" in cases are misleading. Comparisons s/b on per capita.

[pat_k]

We should be accurate. We shouldn't be comparing raw totals as a measure of how hard a country has been hit.

Our country is not the "hardest hit." Sure, we may get to the "top." And of course, we don't really know the true number of cases due to limited testing. However, in terms of numbers reported for countries that have reported more than 5000 cases:

USA currently ranks 10th in number of reported cases per million of population.
USA currently ranks 11th in number of reported deaths per million of population.

This isn't to say that the number of cases/death here isn't incredibly tragic because the situation was avoidable. We should have far fewer cases per million -- and would have if we had not lost the first seven, most critical weeks to obstruction and incompetence.

Numbers are from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Ranked by cases per million (countries reporting over 5000 cases

Rank | Country | Cases | Deaths | Cases/1M | Deaths/1M
1 | Spain | 87,956, | 7,716 | 1,881 | 165
2 | Switzerland | 15,922 | 359 | 1,840 | 41
3 | Italy | 101,739 | 11,591 | 1,683 | 192
4 | Austria | 9,618 | 108 | 1,068 | 12
5 | Belgium | 11,899 | 513 | 1,027 | 44
6 | Germany | 66,885 | 645 | 798 | 8
7 | Netherlands | 11,750 | 864 | 686 | 50
8 | France | 44,550 | 3,024 | 683 | 46
9 | Portugal | 6,408 | 140 | 628 | 14
10 | USA | 163,479 | 3,148 | 494 | 10
11 | Iran | 41,495 | 2,757 | 494 | 33
12 | UK | 22,141 | 1,408 | 326 | 21
13 | Canada | 7,448 | 89 | 197 | 2
14 | S. Korea | 9,661 | 158 | 188 | 3
15 | Turkey | 10,827 | 168 | 128 | 2
16 | China | 81,470 | 3,304 | 57 | 2

Ranked by deaths per million (countries reporting over 5000 cases

| Country, | Cases | Deaths | Cases/1M | Deaths/1M
1 | Italy | 101,739 | 11,591 | 1,683 | 192
2 | Spain | 87,956 | 7,716 | 1,881 | 165
3 | Netherlands | 11,750 | 864 | 686 | 50
4 | France | 44,550 | 3,024 | 683 | 46
5 | Belgium | 11,899 | 513 | 1,027 | 44
6 | Switzerland | 15,922 | 359 | 1,840 | 41
7 | Iran | 41,495 | 2,757 | 494 | 33
8 | UK | 22,141 | 1,408 | 326 | 21
9 | Portugal | 6,408 | 140 | 628 | 14
10 | Austria | 9,618 | 108 | 1,068 | 12
11 | USA | 163,479 | 3,148 | 494 | 10
12 | Germany | 66,885 | 645 | 798 | 8
13 | S. Korea | 9,661 | 158 | 188 | 3
14 | Canada | 7,448 | 89 | 197 | 2
15 | Turkey | 10,827 | 168 | 128 | 2
16 | China | 81,470 | 3,304 | 57 | 2

Sorry the data is a bit messy. Posting removes extra spaces/tabs.

[guillaumeb]

1. Recommended.

Well stated. Plus, stories that focus on NYC, or other large cities, as hot spots should also state that population density plays a part. it is far easier to social distance in a lightly populated area.

[AlexSFCA]

2. absolutely

I’ve been telling this for a while now. The numbers are only meaningful to other countries which wish to restrict entrance to all people from the US and to those who have travelled to the US recently. Per capita, we are doing amazingly well so far.

[Brainfodder]

3. Why minimize this at all, these are human beings at a heart crushing rate dying.

The rage atm is because a crooked jackass with zero morals is in charge and staying?

[pat_k]

10. I don't think I'm minimizing in the least.

I'm just asking that we don't do what there side does, and exaggerate (or minimize) by citing numbers out of context. In this case, the principle "context" is population.

The rankings are what they are. I believe I put them into the appropriate context with the following (from OP):

...of course, we don't really know the true number of cases due to limited testing. However, in terms of numbers reported for countries that have reported more than 5000 cases:

USA currently ranks 10th in number of reported cases per million of population.
USA currently ranks 11th in number of reported deaths per million of population.

This isn't to say that the number of cases/death here isn't incredibly tragic because the situation was avoidable. We should have far fewer cases per million -- and would have if we had not lost the first seven, most critical weeks to obstruction and incompetence.
...

[Brainfodder]

12. For battling to dethrone Orange? Nah, this should be a cake walk BY Nov.

His 100k, is 2000 per state, and that floated 2M max, yeah right... is 40,000 per state!

The amount of anger toward him is going to be some level of crazy?

[pat_k]

20. Assuming strong social distancing and other precautions remain in effect...

...current projection for deaths for entire US is about 82,000 (range 39,000 to 142,000).

Utterly horrific, but not in the millions -- as long as we don't prematurely abandon social distancing.

You can see state by state projections at the same site:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

If social distancing is abandoned, numbers would be something like 10 times those figures. (Based on an NY Times article/graph of projected cases with vs. without social distancing.

[HarlanPepper]

41. *their

[JCMach1]

4. There is only one score that matters and that's how many

Die by the time this is over...

[pat_k]

21. Projection here

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[JCMach1]

35. I think that model is pretending there will only be one peak.. I think the Imperial College model

is much closer... it also seems to be the playbook Fauci is pushing

That's where they pulled the 2.2M number. The number in the hundreds of thousands is only if we follow strict social distancing for the whole country.

If Don the Con and Co. does a 'great' job we get 100's of thousands of death... If red states keep playing games, we get in the 1M neighborhood... Total fuckup we bounce to 2M+

What no one is advertising in that model is that we are looking at 18 months roughly and multiple peaks whatever we do.

[pat_k]

36. IHME is clear that these projections are limited to first wave.

Their (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at University of Washington) focus is on estimating hospital resource needs and estimating shortfalls that must be addressed NOW. Presumably, more ICU beds and ventilators will be available for second wave. I don't know for a fact, but it seems to me that until the "kinetics" (as Dr. Fauci has put is) of this virus is better understood and numbers of available resources are known, the longer range projections have too many unknowns to be useful.

In their March 30 update, they have the following:

Nationwide, a total of 82,141 COVID-19 deaths (range of 39,174 to 141,995) are currently projected through the epidemic’s first wave. US COVID-19 deaths are estimated to rise through April 15, the country’s projected peak of deaths per day.

As of March 29, additional states have implemented statewide social distancing mandates: 45 have closed schools, 29 closed nonessential businesses, and 23 have enacted stay-at-home orders. Nonetheless, many are still defaulting to local recommendations or issuing partial orders – actions that could risk effective statewide response to the novel coronavirus.

They are also very clear that the projections assume continuation of measures to limit spread. The following is at the top of each page.

The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.

From the March 30 updates:

..we sought to apply more consistently the date of social distancing policy implementation for reporting, rather than the date of when the order was issued. Going forward, we will continue to make updates as new orders are issued or prior ones are amended, ensuring that we are reflecting the intent of these social distancing measures.

WRT to numbers if social distancing in abandoned, I think a graph comparing social distancing vs. not republished in the NYTimes indicated about 10 times more cases with "not" With degradation of care at completely swamped hospitals, I would expect an estimate of the number of deaths to be more than 10 times the "social distancing continued" projections.

[JCMach1]

43. Thanks, our dear leaders are not giving us the full story

In fact, I told people I read the Imperial College report and didn't sleep for a couple days. You read it yourself,.or I will.only summarize on a need to know basis.

[pat_k]

44. Yesterday's Imperial College report has estimates of deaths averted by interventions...

... small comfort given that a vast number more could have been averted with swifter preparation and response -- but at least confirmation that social distancing and other precautions are saving lives should motivate countries to keep thee interventions in place to save those lives.

From March 30 report summary on Europe:

...we estimate that interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March [95% credible interval 21,000-120,000]. Many more deaths will be averted through ensuring that interventions remain in place until transmission drops to low levels. We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population. The proportion of the population infected to date – the attack rate - is estimated to be highest in Spain followed by Italy and lowest in Germany and Norway, reflecting the relative stages of the epidemics.

With an estimate for Europe of between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population of the 11 countries infected, we can probably safely assume at least 2% are either active cases or "resolved" (in recovery or death) here in the US. That 6.6 million.

Yes -- enough to keep anyone up at night.

[msongs]

5. one notices the top 9 all have some form of universal health care nt

[GusBob]

8. Really?

I wonder how that factors into the equation

[Lancero]

32. Depends on where you stand on UHC.

If you're in favor of it, it means that the nations have better testing standards and their people have less fear of making use of healthcare services because they don't have to worry about what the bill will be.

If you're against it, it means that the virus magically spreads faster. Somehow.

Sadly, I suspect that quite a few people would fall under the 2nd group. I've certainly seen that 'comparison' being made by right-leaning friends and relatives on facebook.

[GusBob]

40. it may be a moot point

after further consideration

--most countries have UHC
--a pandemic can overwhelm any type of health care system


But this will become a political ffootball

[greenjar_01]

23. Never stops with this shit

[GusBob]

6. Thanks for some perspective

Early on in the disease folks were having trouble understanding the math as well, the exponential nature of the spread . Myself included . One commenter posted that the human mind understands linear thinking best, making abstract harder

The per capita figures are important. They apply to the states as well. Florida vs Michigan for example. Smaller areas may experience a greater impact on health care access which increases the spread and the death rate, so the problem is compounded

[pat_k]

18. Absolutely. Even before this crisis, Mississippi's health care system was terrible shape.

I read an op ed awhile ago from a former Republican congressman in MS. He fears for his state. He said their system has only gotten more troubled after the state refused the subsidy to expand Medicaid. They were overwhelmed by a flu season that was worse than usual, so managing Coronavirus will stretch resources far beyond breaking.

A good site for state-by-state info is https://covidtracking.com/data/ -- it's a project spearheaded by the Atlantic and reports number of tests, cases, hospitalizations, deaths for the US and each state. They grade the quality of the data, which is very useful. They also have links to historical daily totals. If you're a data nerd like me, you can download as a spreadsheet and add data (like population) and run various calculations.

Also, here's a great site that has projections for hospital resources avaialble vs. needed by state:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

One number that I think is very important is the number of tests per capita. For example, FL has tested about 230 per 100,000. Compare to NY at about 890 per 100,000. Knowing the number of tests per capita gives a little bit of insight into how far off the number of cases detected may be relative to the number of cases "out there" to be detected.

Knowing number of tests by day also helps make sense of the increases. There was a post earlier today noting that the cases in FL were doubling every three days. When you look at the numbers, almost all the increase is explained by increase in testing. The percentage positive of the tests run remained about the same. If you're curious, numbers are posted in reply to that thread here:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213203740#post12

[Chainfire]

7. Interesting stats

However, Trump is working hard to put us at the top of the lists. MAGA

[pat_k]

22. Oh, DT admin did all they could to get us there from mid-Jan to end of Feb.

Timeline and failures -- lost shot at containment

Most states are doing a heroic job of managing the aftermath of those failures.

[blitzen]

9. I agree, Deaths per million is about the only meaningful comparison...

and it will be a while before that plays out enough to draw conclusions. Cases per million is probably meaningless, given variations in testing.

[pat_k]

24. This site agrees

Last edited Tue Mar 31, 2020, 01:56 AM - Edit history (1)

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

They don't use cases data in their models.

This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.

[blitzen]

26. Good site, thanks. n/t

[Celerity]

11. The US testing levels are pathetic, so the cases per capita comparison is misleading

Have no fear though, I too live in a massively fucked up country (Sweden) in terms of dealing with COVID-19.

The Guardian : 'They are leading us to catastrophe': Sweden's coronavirus stoicism begins to jar

We now have almost 5000 deaths if we had the same population as the US, over 1300 pop-adjusted the last 2 days.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213205442

[pat_k]

25. Yes. Count of deaths reflects underlying reality far better than cases detected by limited testing.

Here in the US, the count of deaths is low because we didn't even have a reliable test available until mid-late Feb, and it wasn't until the second week of March that states actually had access and capacity to ramp up testing at all. During this period, hospital admissions with COVID-19-like symptoms were presumed to be positive and treated as such (with protective equipment, etc). In cases that resulted in death, the diagnosis was sometimes (perhaps very often) never confirmed and so the cases weren't counted. (No real data on this. Just scattered reports from health care personnel.)

But, even with that issue, reporting of the number of deaths is far closer to reality than the obscenely limited testing to detect cases.

Thank you for pointing to the Guardian article. I hope Sweden gets far more proactive -- and does it rapidly.

[Celerity]

33. Update, we now have the US equivalent of 5511 deaths, it is rapidly climbing (2145 since Saturday)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13206327

[pat_k]

37. This is so disturbing.

Do your best to stay safe!

[Celerity]

38. I have been documenting this for weeks now

[USALiberal]

13. Good post! Nt

[Alex4Martinez]

14. We are at different points in the cycle, remember, with different dates of onset

Even each state in the union is on a different point in the cycle.

New York State might peak in terms of hospital beds needed in ten days, while California may not peak until May 1.

This page shows the trends nationally:

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

The US is doubling every three days.

This second link shows graphs for each state. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/tracking-coronavirus-u-s-real-time-visualizations/

[blitzen]

15. That first graph indicates Trump's failure perfectly! Look at that spike in trajectory...

starting around March 10. No other country had anything remotely similar.

[pat_k]

27. This site has good state-by-state projections that are updated every few days to account for...

... state-specific data coming in.

Different states have different "days to peak."

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Latest notes on March 30 update:
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

[Alex4Martinez]

39. Yes, that first link is most useful for state by state graphs.

The second one is new to me, adding to my Covid bookmarks!

[Doodley]

16. A hurricane in a city of a million kills 150 people. Another hurricane

in a city of half a million and kills 80 people. Would you say the second city with 80 deaths was the hardest hit?

[pat_k]

28. I'd say the 15 deaths per 100,000 is about the same as 16 per 100,000.

In terms of damage to life by the hurricane.

Have no idea which was "harder hit" by the hurricane without property damage.

Not sure what point you are making.

[Bev54]

17. The US numbers are just getting started

let's not get ahead of ourselves. Numbers are on a trajectory of being much worse. With this admin, it could be horrible and to think this is the country that is supposed to be a world leader.

[pat_k]

30. Here are projections of hospital resources available, needed, deaths...

US summary and state-by-state

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

From the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at University of Washington.

[orwell]

19. In the end USA will be #1...

...in Western Democracies.

The difference in CPM is due to a lack of testing in the US and the disease showing up here after Europe was already hard hit. We are about 2 weeks behind Europe with cases doubling every 3 days or so.

Looking at these numbers is looking in a rear view mirror. It is the second order derivative that is important.

If it makes you feel better, more power to you.

[pat_k]

34. As I said in the OP...

.... Sure, we may get to the "top." And of course, we don't really know the true number of cases due to limited testing. However, in terms of numbers reported for countries that have reported more than 5000 cases:
...

[John Fante]

29. This thread will not age well, sadly.

[Raine]

31. Thanks nt

[HarlanPepper]

42. We'll have the most cases and deaths by the time it's done

That’s the narrative that will be used to great effect in the November election against Dump and the GOP. It’s simple and easy for people to understand. Everything else is just minutiae.