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Doctors optimistic Bay Area lockdown successfully bended the coronavirus curve: report
Published 2 hours ago on March 30, 2020
By Bob Brigham at the Raw Story
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/doctors-optimistic-bay-area-lockdown-successfully-bended-the-coronavirus-curve-report/
"SNIP.....
The aggressive actions of local governments in the San Francisco Bay Area may have successfully bent the coronavirus curve.
State leaders and doctors are cautiously optimistic that the Bay Areas early moves to lock down residents two weeks ago have prevented surges of coronavirus patients from overwhelming the regions health care capacity thus far, Politico reported Monday.
Six Bay Area counties were first in the country to adopt aggressive tactics with an enforceable March 16 order requiring residents to stay at home, Politico noted. After 14 days the outermost period at which symptoms are believed to emerge post-infection doctors at area hospitals are now reporting fewer cases than they expected to see at this point, and officials credit the lockdown with stemming the tide of patients they feared would flood into emergency rooms.
Northern California offered a rare glimpse of optimism as the U.S. recorded its most coronavirus deaths in one day and Washington, D.C.-area jurisdictions Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia issued their first enforceable stay-at-home orders, Politico added. While officials remain adamant that people stay home and adhere to social-distancing guidelines the Bay Area Monday extended its stay-at-home order to May 1 they also are praising residents for following orders and expressing optimism that the measures will continue to work.
......SNIP"
cilla4progress
(24,718 posts)Bended? Bent.
applegrove
(118,503 posts)leftyladyfrommo
(18,866 posts)BigmanPigman
(51,571 posts)Social distancing DOES help! If your state or city isn't doing it than YOU do it on your own. Save lives, don't be selfish and be a responsible member of society!
msongs
(67,371 posts)applegrove
(118,503 posts)Last edited Tue Mar 31, 2020, 04:18 AM - Edit history (1)
When the rate of infection is very low there will be more herd immunity for us and the virus will move on to look for other hosts, hosts that don't exist as everyone is self isolating. Imagine if the Trump said two months ago "stand by yourself and have no contact with anybody else for the next 14 days". The virus would have caused havock on the people who already had it but, after 14 days, the virus would be mostly gone because it could not survive having no new hosts and the 8 cases could be isolated and resolved in the near future. With fewer infected people, there is less virus around. So when we are coming down the other side of the curve we have bent, it is important to not stop self isolation until the rate of infection has fallen really, really low. And not before then. Otherewise, the crisis could reboot. When that point is reached and people start to run around you keep testing and put out new clusters here and there. It could very well come back in a big way again. And then again. But at that point we might have a vaccine or better treatments and more and more herd immunity. It could turn seasonal. Depends how long people who have had the virus stay immune. Or how much coronavirus mutates. That would lessen herd immunity. The hope is that it is this one time and we get our act together and stamp out little outbreaks here and there and develop a vaccine. Or ten. You are right to be worried.
Think of all that shaded area under the curve as the amount of virus there is.
Don't take word or anybody elses. Read the Hammer and the Dance (i found the graphs really hard to follow so i gave up and just read the text). https://medium.com/%40tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
captain queeg
(10,104 posts)applegrove
(118,503 posts)secondwind
(16,903 posts)Hermit-The-Prog
(33,271 posts)GOP and their orange idol are responsible for the thousands of deaths coming. Instead of early, aggressive measures, GOP chose and still chooses to deny facts, which only exacerbates the effects of the pandemic.