The Curve Is Not Flattening

[RandySF]

Public health should not be a political issue. Despite often contradictory signals from the White House and some lawmakers, we’re all fighting together against the coronavirus.

But as of today, we’re not winning.

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States has more doubled in just the last five days. More than 3,000 people have already died. The White House coronavirus task force sees as many as 200,000 deaths — if things go perfectly. If things don’t go perfectly, the unstated assumption is that even more will die.

As this chart from David Leonhardt shows, things are not going perfectly.






https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/31/the-curve-is-not-flattening/

[flamingdem]

1. Can you post some of the article? There's a paywall

thanks

[roamer65]

2. It's because of states that refuse to lockdown.

I really think the lockdown states need to seal their borders with these states.

[Mike 03]

3. We might have to wait a couple more weeks to see for certain.

This virus can have a two week incubation period. Also, we screwed up by not all starting at the same time. AZ just started stay-at-home today (or tonight, technically). We might have to break the distribution curves down by state. CA started earlier. I'd be interested to see if their curve flattens a bit soon or in a week or so.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

4. That's because the MORONavirus was spread by Fox and GOP long ago.

[Celerity]

9. moronavirus

[Hermit-The-Prog]

12. Thanks! I had seen only one of those before.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. Still variables that distinguish the U.S. from other places

I know here (and probably many other places), due to the lack of tests (and ability to test), the testing is being confined to specific narrow criteria - generally "symptomatic" and over a certain age with underlying conditions and/or healthcare/first responders (including police, fire/EMTs etc) - along with a subset of entertainers/sports figures, etc. At least here, they have not been testing "younger" "symptomatic" people -initially none under 60 and now none under 50. Plus most needed a script from a physician.

So who knows what the "real" curve looks like!

[Roland99]

6. Wish charts would use cases per capita

[dpibel]

10. Yes. It would show even more starkly

how poorly the US response stacks up next to China's.

[uponit7771]

7. K&R, ... and "flat curve" helps hospitals it doesn't help us get back to normality

[jimfields33]

8. CNN this morning said we're evening out

I was surprised to hear it. But no where else said it. Allison comolada ???? I know I spelled her name wrong.

[csziggy]

11. Btween lack of testing and supression of information we can't trust the data

And I believe this holds true for nearly every country.

China might have the most accurate testing data but their earlier figures are probably not trustworthy. There are stories that their reported cases and death rates are inaccurate.

We know that the US is still not testing everyone with symptoms or exposure so I don't trust the numbers for cases here. Italy and Spain have reported the same.

In fact, I don't think any country has been able (due to lack of tests) or willing to test enough people (for political reasons) to give accurate information. Right now, the US testing rates are going up so the number of confirmed cases is rising precipitously. Does that mean the number of infected people is rising at that great rate?

We can't know. All we can know is that the number of tested and confirmed people is rising. That deforms the charts.

[Brother Buzz]

13. Early indications: Doctors see flatter curve after 2 weeks isolation in California (SF Bay Area)

Bend it like the Bay Area: Doctors see flatter curve after 2 weeks of social isolation
By DEBRA KAHN and CARLA MARINUCCI 03/30/2020

SAN FRANCISCO — State leaders and doctors are cautiously optimistic that the Bay Area's early moves to lock down residents two weeks ago have prevented surges of coronavirus patients from overwhelming the region's health care capacity thus far.

Six Bay Area counties were first in the country to adopt aggressive tactics with an enforceable March 16 order requiring residents to stay at home. Gov. Gavin Newsom quickly followed with a statewide order three days later restricting the state's 40 million residents from all but essential activities.


After 14 days — the outermost period at which symptoms are believed to emerge post-infection — doctors at area hospitals are now reporting fewer cases than they expected to see at this point, and officials credit the lockdown with stemming the tide of patients they feared would flood into emergency rooms.

Northern California offered a rare glimpse of optimism Monday as the U.S. recorded its most coronavirus deaths in one day and Washington, D.C.-area jurisdictions — Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia — issued their first enforceable stay-at-home orders. Health officials across the nation are eyeing the Bay Area as a bellwether to determine the effects of social distancing, since the region's policies were replicated in various states and cities in subsequent days.

The Bay Area's primary goal two weeks ago was to slow the growth of serious cases, buying public officials and hospitals enough time to increase the number of hospital beds, respirators and staff necessary to handle a coronavirus surge.

<more>

https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/30/bend-it-like-the-bay-area-doctors-see-flatter-curve-after-2-weeks-of-social-isolation-1269663

[localroger]

14. We're just now reaching the point for the earliest states

...where the measures might look effective on a graph. It takes 2-3 weeks because during the incubation period most of the people who are getting sick have already been sick since before the countermeasures were enacted. In Louisiana the shelter in place order went into effect on March 17, and I expect the first week of April to be key.

[GemDigger]

15. Straight to the top with you DonnieTwoTone, right straight to the top.