It occurred to me that some day soon many people with immunity...

[Girard442]

...(because they had the virus and survived) will be able to walk freely through the world and mingle with other survivors while many other people will still be sheltered in place and in fear. If you were writing a sci-fi novel, this would be an interesting premise, but it's really going to happen.

[jberryhill]

1. That's correct

[TheBlackAdder]

62. Reminiscent of 'The Omega Man' staring Charleton Heston. Some survive, some mutate, most die.

[USALiberal]

2. Are they sure you are immune forever from covid19? Nt

[Phoenix61]

6. All those folks working on a vaccine think so. nt

[phylny]

10. I'm not sure of that, since the flu vaccine

has to be tweaked every year. Would a coronavirus vaccine be different?

[Phoenix61]

17. We've had several SARS and didn't come

up with a vaccine for them as they were managed before they became a pandemic. So would a vaccine for this version work for a future version? Probably not, but it would work for this one.

[thesquanderer]

20. When it comes to vaccines, the flu is the exception rather than the rule...

...I think because it refers to a general type of illness rather than a single specific one. Measles is always measles, but there are many flus and they can change.

[Girard442]

21. I think the big problem with flu vaccines is that the flu mutates every year and...

...your immune system doesn't recognize the new mutation. Same thing with the common cold. I do know they recommend getting the DPT booster when one gets older, so immunity does fade with time. How fast? I think it varies.

[AnotherDreamWeaver]

25. Early on there were 2 types, L & S now I understand there are 9 mutations. nt

[SheltieLover]

29. Do you have links about 9?

😳

[AnotherDreamWeaver]

66. Sorry, it was only 8, here is the link:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/scientists-track-coronavirus-strains-mutation/5080571002/?fbclid=IwAR1ItrW1xzF74GoNupKm68-9CApdLYRWHC33dGIdn-MZuz0S8B1aNIMzjSE

8 strains of the coronavirus are circling the globe. Here's what clues they're giving scientists.

ADW

[Igel]

46. Distinguish mutations from what's important for what purpose.

There are more than 8 mutations.

There are something like 8 strains (from 4-5 days ago, maybe 9 nine).

None of them have been shown to affect virulence. The L & S claim just happened to match perfectly the distinction between early cases in China that killed a lot people and those after Xi told China to get dealing with the virus. While that's suspicious in a country where everything's highly politicized, the claim was subjected to a masterful takedown showing that they had precisely zero basis for their conclusion. Assume your conclusion for setting up your analysis, and then derive your conclusion from your analysis. Classic, though in many cases subtle, fallacy. (They left the political CYA maneuver hanging in the air--were the authors just stupid, in too much of a hurry to actually think through their claim, or was it a political article intended to provide political cover?)

However, many mutations affect proteins that could trigger an immune response or replication point and so are important when designing a vaccine or an antiviral drug. Produce a vaccine targeting one of those proteins and you'd know that there's already a second strain out there your vaccine might not work on.

But there are more than 8 mutations. Most are point mutations and substitute one amino acid for another that serves the same function. In the 800+ genomes that have been sequenced, there's still useful historical information--how the virus dominant in one area got there? Some went straight from Wuhan, others mutated in Bavaria or Italy or someplace else before colonizing a new population.

[AlexSFCA]

36. at least for the year and then there is vaccine

[cilla4progress]

28. No, it's temporary.

Or so I've read.

[sheshe2]

30. I think it was Fauci that said a year. nt

[AlexSFCA]

37. enough till we get vaccine

many of us may have had it already but didnt know. I wish they could test for antibodies or virus exposure.

[greenjar_01]

42. Reinfection stories are dubious, to say the least

[Mike 03]

3. Two weeks ago my sister and I were, like, let's just get it and

get this over with. Not so sure that was a bright idea after reading some of the first-person stories from survivors.

[HarlanPepper]

23. I said the same

Until I saw younger and fitter people than me on ventilators. No thanks.

[jpak]

4. Until we get a vaccine - then we all walk free.

Yup

[winetourdriver01]

5. Probably

I caught it early on, the doc says I'm immune now. I do walk around, I don't like (can't) sit on my butt in this apartment all day.

[dweller]

7. when did you get it?

and how long were you sick with it?
just curious

✌🏼

[Mike 03]

13. Sorry, replied to the wrong post. nt

[winetourdriver01]

22. When

There are three in my household, one of us brought it home early to mid January. The other two caught it almost immediately. I'm sixty nine, the others younger, fifty four and forty one. We didn't know it was the Trump Plague of course, but we all knew it was something none of us had before. I knew it was something different when it migrated to my lungs, the painful sensation as it went into my (tubes?), I don't know what else to call them, was creepy as hell. I dry coughed for maybe three weeks, before it stopped. Listen, I've been doing a lot of thinking, two points: This early strain may have been a bit less virulent, and I have an immune system that is quite strong- I shrugged off polio as a child.

[dweller]

24. you didn't have congestion?

i understood that was a symptom
very heavy congestion

✌🏼

[winetourdriver01]

38. congestion

Some, but apparently not as bad as some. I know the coughing kept me and everyone else awake, and it was exhausting.

[onlyadream]

31. I've had a dry cough for about 20 days now

Only once (last week) it hurt when I took a deep breath. No fever. I don't know what's causing this chronic cough, and I wonder if I have it (my town had over 30 with covid 19 - Long Island).

[intrepidity]

32. We're you ever tested?

Most importantly, a serological test for antibodies?

I've read dozens and dozens of reports nearly identical to yours, and I also experienced the same, in January.

But since no testing was available, and because the sequencing data seem to support the narrative that it wasn't widespread here in the States that early, I'm left wondering what to make of it.

[dweller]

44. same here

sick in Jan for several months, but have been self isolating anyway bc
i just do normally, but wondered if i had it ... still congested
no fever, some fatigue
i now have N95 masks so will wear every time i go out for supplies

✌🏼

[greenjar_01]

45. There is no seriological test for antibodies at this point

The development and widespread distribution of one is utterly necessary to get us going again as a society.

[intrepidity]

50. Well, there are, just not available

That is, the technology exists because it is a standard research tool.

But not available for patient testing yet. Needs to be available asap.

[greenjar_01]

52. Still in development for this particular virus

Mostly working test.

That it works (kinda) in a lab is nice. But there is no real functional test.

[intrepidity]

53. Check this

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213152513

[greenjar_01]

54. Will be thrilled when it or something like it comes online

Let me know when you or anybody you know has completed a test.

[intrepidity]

55. I've been waiting for months

So yeah, will be first in line.

[greenjar_01]

56. Copy that

[intrepidity]

61. Getting closer

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213211587

[Maru Kitteh]

39. If you didn't get a positive test/diagnosis you have no FKING CLUE if you had it or not

You could end up with COVID, you could be in early stages right now and not know it, possibly never know it and still walk around getting OTHER PEOPLE KILLED.

If you didn't get a positive diagnosis, STAY THE FUCK HOME already.

Signed,
The entire medical community trying not to die.

Thank you.

[Mike 03]

14. It would be great if you could share your story. Some of us want to know what

it's like to catch this virus, what to expect and any advice you could share.

[herding cats]

65. Your doctor is guessing

Which doesn't bode well for your health.

Please, check this out. Unless you were where the genome was very first sequenced here in the US at that time, or you traveled to a hotspot, the odds are you didn't have this virus. That's a myth being propagated around.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Be safe, ok? Please, don't take a random GP's lack of knowledge on epidemiology as a fact.

[Journeyman]

8. They'll still be urged to isolate, to avoid spreading the virus. They may be immune, but . . .

they remain taxicabs for the opportunistic coronavirus. It won't do to have a million "Corona Kevins" walking among us.

[Ferrets are Cool]

9. I thought I read that some in China were being reinfected.

"Experts unsure if 'cured' COVID-19 patients are reinfected or relapsed"

March 6 (UPI) -- Although the number of new cases of coronavirus continues to climb, well over half of those diagnosed with the disease have been declared fully recovered, according to data from the World Health Organization.

However, reports suggest a new subset of patients affected by the disease, known as COVID-19, may be emerging: A handful of the 60,000 or so people declared cured after treatment have been readmitted to hospitals days or weeks later because their symptoms have returned.

[intrepidity]

33. I've read that the most logical explanation is false negative tests

That is, there remained very low level of virus, below the detection threshold.

The question, though, is: why didn't their immune system fully quash the thing?

[greenjar_01]

47. Reinfection stories are almost certainly hysteria and bad info

[Ferrets are Cool]

58. Reputable link?

[Patterson]

59. Yeah, every mention of reinfection on YouTube I've seen is real sketchy.

[Igel]

49. "Unsure." "May be."

It's unlikely. The numbers are small enough to be basically isolated and ignored, except for researchers.

They're doing a kind of test that gives false positives, so they repeat them. But the test picks up viral bits and disabled virus just as much as it picks up fully able, viable virus.

The test also gives false positives fairly often, and that's a different problem.

[hurple]

11. What About Those That Don't Know

I've been sick twice since February. In February I had a fever and cough for a few days, but it ended as fast as it started just a few days after it begun. Now, I am getting over a sneezing, wheezing, coughing cold (without fever) that I've had for a week and a half.

Were either of those COVID? I don't know, I couldn't get tested because I wasn't showing severe enough symptoms.

So I'm sheltering in place scared silly that if I catch it, I'll be one of those unlucky 3% that wind up in the ground.

How will I ever know?

This is maddening!

[blitzen]

12. Germany is giving them certificates (if they have sufficient antibodies) so they can work, etc...

We need to do the same--but of course we are in no position to do so now because of Trump's negligence.

[Hortensis]

19. And the socioaths in the Republican senate. They had estimates

of deaths, and most importantly WHO - what age and disability groups would be hit much harder than others -- back in January. Either retired and heavily on Social Security, Medicare and Veterans benefits or chronically ill or disabled and on Medicaid.

And they went on Fox and other RW media and told America it was just a cold and the contemptible scare stories were just Democratic lies to hurt Trump. And not only delayed all action until the deaths began but actively obstructed what they knew needed to be done.

[SCantiGOP]

15. Dr Fauci said

He 'excpected' that one would get at least a year or two of immunity. They simply won't know till it can be studied, but the flu vaccine is tweaked every year because, while you would have immunity to the flu you had 5 years ago, it has already evolved into a new strain.

[BusyBeingBest]

16. We don't really know yet how this behaves in your body.

What if it's like the chicken pox virus, and can erupt later when the immune system is weakened, like with shingles? What if it hides in body tissues or cells like that? Edit to add: what if it can give you cancer like certain other viruses (HPV)?

[intrepidity]

34. It isn't a retrovirus

Retroviruses are those that can "hide", lay dormant for periods of time.

I do believe we know this is not the case.

[BusyBeingBest]

40. I read an interview of this author who wrote a book about pandemics

(Laurie Garrett) and she mentioned this possibility:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/why-testing-for-coronavirus-antibodies-will-matter.html

[intrepidity]

41. Uh oh, well, I trust her, so

Yikes

ETA: Are you referring to this part of that interview?

There’s two possible explanations. One is that the virus is actually lurking, never really gone, and you’ve had false claims of being cured.

If so, I'm fairly certain she's talking about the virus being present in low, undetectable levels. That not the same as what, for instance, a retrovirus does, where it actually hides in the host genome.

[BusyBeingBest]

43. That would really suck--to catch the disease, have a very mild

or asymptomatic case of it, and then it lurks and waits until your immunity is lowered and then it REALLY gets ya.

[Permanut]

18. This was one of the plot elements in the movie "Contagion"..

From 2011. Prophetic.

[intrepidity]

35. Prophetic? Hardly. Science? Yes.

I'm surprised at how many think this is a surprising event.

[Permanut]

63. Point taken..

I was allowing for the remote possibility that it would never happen. Should have been treated as a certainty by those who could do material preparations, though, just like the major earthquake that will occur here in Oregon sooner or later..

[intrepidity]

64. Exactly.

Wasn't direct at you personally

[Afromania]

26. There was an episode of the modern Outer Limits like this.

The sun changed colors and only the kids were able to adapt to the change that let them walk outside. The adults had to stay inside during the day or the sun would kill them. When this started getting going I immediately thought of it.

[cilla4progress]

27. Immunity

is only temporary, you know.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

48. Statements from epidemiologists I'm reading say....

they will not know the extend of herd immunity until it's a done deal across the broad spectrum of races and cultures. That process has a very long way to go.

In other words, and again reminding ourselves this is a novel virus, we don't yet know how strong the natural immunity will be in all populations, if any. The same degree of immunity developed for other SARS viruses does not necessarily apply to this one. We also don't know how resilient that immunity will be over a long period of time.

See:

The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who warned of pandemic in 2006, says we can beat the novel coronavirus—but first, we need lots more testing.

Link: https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/amp

Excerpt:

Larry Brilliant says he doesn’t have a crystal ball. But 14 years ago, Brilliant, the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox, spoke to a TED audience and described what the next pandemic would look like. At the time, it sounded almost too horrible to take seriously. “A billion people would get sick," he said. “As many as 165 million people would die. There would be a global recession and depression, and the cost to our economy of $1 to $3 trillion would be far worse for everyone than merely 100 million people dying, because so many more people would lose their jobs and their health care benefits, that the consequences are almost unthinkable.”

Now the unthinkable is here, and Brilliant, the Chairman of the board of Ending Pandemics, is sharing expertise with those on the front lines. We are a long way from 100 million deaths due to the novel coronavirus, but it has turned our world upside down. Brilliant is trying not to say “I told you so” too often. But he did tell us so, not only in talks and writings, but as the senior technical advisor for the pandemic horror film Contagion, now a top streaming selection for the homebound. Besides working with the World Health Organization in the effort to end smallpox, Brilliant, who is now 75, has fought flu, polio, and blindness; once led Google’s nonprofit wing, Google.org; co-founded the conferencing system the Well; and has traveled with the Grateful Dead.

Also, please mull on this fact for a moment: everyone like myself who are high risk will have to remain in near-isolation until a vaccine is available and that could stretch out as long as 18 months to two years before it's widely available. If and when when younger people do develop natural immunity, that will force my sector of the population to be even more cautious (because they will then become more careless).

Many medical professionals are throwing out a lot of statements that include "we think" or "we believe" this or that relative to many aspects of this pandemic. Unfortunately, many people are taking those statements as factual confirmation of the concept being discussed. We should take those statements with a grain of salt (and don't bet our lives on it) until they are 1.) known to be authoritative on the topic and 2.) are willing to say "I know".

KY........

[appalachiablue]

51. Passing a test that you're immune to CV will be part of employment

screening before too long. I read an article recently but can't recall where it was just now.

[frogmarch]

57. Viruses mutate. nt

[jmg257]

60. Can those who had it already still spread it? Nt