Why Italy's death rate is so high: 5,000 tests a day

[denem]

Italy's coronavirus death toll passes 10,000. Many are asking why the fatality rate is so high

... Italy's number of confirmed cases is "not representative of the entire infected population," said Dr. Massimo Galli, head of the infectious disease unit at Sacco Hospital in Milan. The real figure was "much much more."

Only the most severe cases are being tested, added Galli, and not the entire population -- which in turn, skews the death rate.

In the northern Lombardy region, which has the majority of cases, about 5,000 swabs are being carried out daily, said Galli. He added this was "much lower than needed, with "thousands of people waiting for diagnosis at their home."

A major obstacle for health workers carrying out tests, was limited protective gear available, he said.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/28/europe/italy-coronavirus-cases-surpass-china-intl/index.html

[beachbumbob]

1. Italy has an aging population and frankly, near impossible for them to "self-isolate"

[denem]

2. Nevertheless, only testing 'the most serious cases'

(who are likely to be elderly) will overestimate the fatality rate. People with mild symptoms are generally not tested, and therefore not represented in the total case numbers.

[beachbumbob]

4. this is the same every where as giving test now serves little purpose except for data collection

the only people that should be tested are law enforcement and healthcare, followed by truckers, grocery store people. others who are essential to keep the machine running. Mom and dad don;t need to be tested, neither does brother bill or sister kate. If you got it, you got it. If it goes bad, your choice is an ICU bed, if available.

We have to hold on for 6-18 months until a vaccine is ready and available, then we have deal with year 2 strain

[denem]

5. I think we are testing more than (the equivalent) of 5,000 a day.

with a higher proportion of relatively mild cases that seldom result in death. The question - why Italy's fatality rate is so high is a statistical, not a policy question.

[cos dem]

6. "Except for data collection"

In terms of getting a handle on this thing, that has always been the most important reason. If we want to ease up a bit on the physical distancing, we need to know where it is, where it's not, be able to trace contacts, and eventually determine who has antibodies.

Without that data, we're stuck inside until everyone either gets it, or a vaccine comes along. The timeframe for either looks about the same.

Countries with robust testing of everyone have some level of control on this (South Korea, Germany). Those that don't (Italy, USA) are struggling.

[crickets]

8. +1

[uponit7771]

3. THIS !!! Italy ... ***CONTINUES*** ... to under test relative to their population !! All they have

... to do is do what South Korea did and test at their rate relative to local population.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. 5,000 in Lombardy, population 10 million, is over 3 times the UK rate

of 9,800 per day in a population of 66 million (and that's today's UK rate; on the 28th, the date of the article, the UK tests were 7,000, so just 21% of the Italian rate.

You may conclude from this that the UK is fucked.