Trump's Narcissism Turns Deadly, And The Post COVID World Order

[Celerity]

https://thebanter.substack.com/p/trumps-narcissism-turns-deadly-and

The Post-COVID 19 World, And The Acceleration of Geopolitical Trends

How will the future world look geopolitically post this pandemic? The analogy of us “driving in heavy fog” is apt for the current moment, with so many things changing so fast, it is hard to make solid predictions. No doubt many of the below predictions will look very misguided, even in several months. However historical accounts of past pandemics show that they accelerate trends which had started prior to the outbreak.

The trends which were happening as the crisis hit included:

* Huge strain on the EU structure as populism took hold

* Geopolitical rivalry and tension between the US and China as the latter continued its rise

* Internal political polarisation in most parts of the West between the rich/poor, metropolitan/rural, liberal/conservative

* Increasingly distributed companies working across many countries and increasingly treating its users/customers as its citizenry

This is an initial attempt by me to predict how a new normal geopolitically may unfold.

The EU

Will this crisis be the springboard required for the much need reforms? Will the continent finally be able to create solidarity among fellow Europeans, or will this prove to be a sham, and the final nail in the coffin of the European Dream (or delusion) which so many have predicted? The current moment is undoubtedly existential for the EU. The response to the crisis has been very much centred around nation states, and there has been precious little solidarity between countries as the crisis has unfolded. It is poignant that Italy is getting more medical supplies and advice from China than from Germany at the moment. What will this mean? Will it be final disintegration of the EU into a more traditional nation state system of alliances, or will this be the springboard to create a new meaningful structure and to create a European federal state of nations. In my view it will. most likely will be a bit of both, with an internal core of countries federalising fast into deeper union, and a periphery.

Geopolitical realities will mean most Europeans will see the necessity and importance of scale in a new global order. It is likely that an escalation of geopolitical rivalry between the US and China, and the acceleration of the end of Pax Americana and NATO will mean that Europeans will see having an army as essential to protect the continent, and economies of scale mean that the pooling of resources (and sovereignty) will be critical for this. Small countries will need to give up a veto, as a more proportional representation method of governing will become a non negotiable to prevent gridlock and credible decisions. For some like the Baltic states, the decision will be easy, for others, perhaps seeing what other options will be on the table before making any decisions. The relative weakness of Russia will make the decision easy, and China is not there yet as a credible alternative.

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