QUESTION: US is testing less than 5k/million while S. Korea, Germany, Greenland, Hong Kong...

[uponit7771]

Last edited Mon Apr 6, 2020, 08:52 AM - Edit history (5)

... are around 10k/million.

Wouldn't the countries that tested the LEAST per million have the most noise in their infection rate (or "the curve" ) numbers or the least accuracy overall?

I'm thinking of course our infection rate goes down when we're not testing enough people in large or medium cities to get a more accurate sample

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Tested per million as of 4/6/2020

Hong Kong - 13000
S. Korea - 9000
Germany - 11000
Greenland - 9500
Italy - 11000

USA - 5000

Looks like the countries that tested the most ... per million ... early are able to handle the situation the best when it comes to bottoming out the infection rate not just "flattening" the curve which is more aimed most at helping the hospitals not human normality or the economy.

Thx in advance for your input

[duforsure]

1. trump is intentionally dragging his feet

On response. He's intentionally blocking equipment shipments to Americans , doing things to slow down response and supplies and refusing to supply medical equipment to sick people here in the USA, which should be criminal , and calls for his resignation at once. Now he's already suggesting American's return to work before this pandemic is over, so his supporters need to realize he could care less about you or your family's health, that's why he'll continue trying to muzzle any experts, then promote his propaganda. The truth undermines his propaganda and his biggest threat exposing him.

[uponit7771]

2. +1, I'm thinking a good portion of the crap will hit the fan end of April when Trump will be forced

... to say we're going another 2 weeks or a month .. or.. open things back up on the federal level and start breaking things.

Then no one is going to believe the next set of numbers and we on DU knew not to believe the first set of numbers from him.

Looks like China wont by back... fully ... till the end of April so that means 3 months for them and they shut down all interstate travel in the country.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china/as-new-cases-of-coronavirus-subside-in-china-wuhan-told-to-go-back-to-work-idUSKBN20Y03W

Though the economy is still operating at about 25% below its usual levels, activity should be fully restored by the end of April, Francoise Huang, senior economist at Euler Hermes, predicted in a note to clients.

[uponit7771]

3. Kick for Notice

[FBaggins]

4. Quick correction... use 5k/million or .5%

.5% per million would mean that we’ve tested over 150% of the country.

[uponit7771]

5. Hmmm, edited OP ... is that 150% over a period of time? thx in advance

[FBaggins]

6. It would imply "already tested"

It's just that the same figure can be expressed in two ways. But if you combine them it says something entirely different.

I had a student once come out of driver's training believing that he had to keep a following distance of two seconds per ten MPH that he was traveling. The old rule of thumb is actually "two seconds OR two car lengths per 10 MPH" - which both give (very roughly) the same following distance. But if you read it as "two seconds per 10 MPH" you would get a following distance of over 1,000 feet at 60 MPH.

If we say ".5% per million" and there are 327 million people in the US... .5 X 327 = 163.5. We obviously haven't tested over 150% of the country. While "5K/million" and ".5%" are the same number (about 1.6 million tests).

[uponit7771]

7. +1, got it !!! changing all my post ... thx for this and it looks like you read the OP also. What do

... you think of the logic behind the question in the post?

My premise being lets do what the people who've controlled the virus to some kind of greater relative success than we have done.

Spent decades code reviewing and know logic and thinking always has to be checked.

Thx in advance

[FBaggins]

8. The logic behind the OP is essentially sound

It's reasonable to assume that more data gives you less "noise" in the results. It's also reasonable to look at what other countries have done and consider implementing those things if they appear to have more success. It's hard to establish a causal relationship, but it's at least reasonable.

The contrary position can also be valid of course. I had a doctor tell me (in a low infection area) that people should NOT be racing to get tested unless they might need hospitalization. "What am I going to tell you if you're positive? Stay home and stay away from other people. What am I telling you if you're negative? Stay home and stay away from other people. The only difference is that if you come to get tested, you're surrounding yourself with people who are sick". My desire for more/better data should not trump what could be best for each individual patient.

I suspect that when and how much to test varies with circumstances. Sure... if there was a quick and cheap way to test 300 million people, the virus wouldn't have taken root in the first place... but that wasn't an option. I've been watching my state (currently 3,900/million) and comparing it to NY (15k/million) - but that doesn't mean that they're doing better or even have better data. I quickly realized that half of their tests (now a little lower) were coming in positive, while fewer than 10% of our tests were positive. They might be using identical testing criteria but with different facts on the ground.

[uponit7771]

9. Thx! I would agree with doctor if we could shut down interstate travel like China. I'm thinking...

... testing has to be on a constant bases also less we get flare ups like S Korea's sans the incoming travel.

[DFW]

10. None of those numbers are anything to be proud of

Here in Germany, it is almost impossible to get tested. I tried.

I called everywhere they said to call, told them I had been in Spain recently, etc. etc. EVERY number I called, both doctors and health department (after an hour's wait on hold), said to call someone else, except the last one, which asked if I had any acute symptoms. When I said I didn't so far, they said, then just stay home. I have done just that for the last three weeks but I had planned on that anyway. I know of exactly ONE person who has been tested because he had severe symptoms (he tested negative) and one who was already in a coma by the time he got tested (he tested positive).

The German stat of 11,000 per million is 1.1% of the population. We have around 100,000 confirmed infections here. If that is representative of the population, by exptrapolation, that means about ten million infected, which wouldn't surprise me. My personal bet is that such a figure is probably low. Most infected people experience mild symptoms to none at all, and don't know they have it, whereas some people are just sick with something else and think they do have it

The fact is that no country was sitting around waiting for this virus to happen. They couldn't. They had no way to prepare for something they didn't know existed six months ago.

[uponit7771]

11. Even South Korea's numbers? I understand its hard to get tested in Germany now its my understanding

... that Germany busted all their testing the first month / 2 and didn't reproduce.

The death rate in German is a 10th what it is in other comparable countries with similar infection rates and populations.

Germany is doing something different

They had no way to prepare for something they didn't know existed six months ago.

I verily disagree, the world had a play book and there were a number of countries that responded to the WHO warnings and got busy with test after Jan

I'm still looking at S Korea and Taiwan for instance, those countries took the WHO warnings seriously and got busy with testing right away

[DFW]

12. A few things

Germans are mostly pretty good at following rules (with mixed results, if you look at their history in the last century). Also they have strict guidelines as to how they report things. If the guidelines say that someone can only have died of the virus if such and such conditions are fulfilled, then even if you DID die of the virus, if their strict rules say you didn't, then you didn't.

That's just the way they are here. When my daughter was in school here, she was marked wrong for solving math problems correctly, but not the exact way the teacher said she should. It would be typical if they said here that a fatality cannot be directly attributed to Coronavirus if it was due to "complications from" the virus.

On the other hand, they usually ARE meticulous about keeping their clinics clean, so I can imagine the number of people acquiring infections in clinics here might be lower than in places that have looser guidelines.