COVID-19 estimation updates have some 'good' news

[janterry]

It looks better this morning --for many states. http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

The overall death rate is still painfully high. And New York still faces many hard days.

But it's still a glimmer of hope. In my tiny state, it suggests we may be past the peak of this wave.

Here's a link to find your state
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[Squinch]

1. This site has been low-balling estimates for weeks. I wouldn't bank on their blue sky estimates.

[snpsmom]

2. yep n/t

[Squinch]

3. I keep thinking that, if we cared to search, we'd find some republican money funding them.

[snpsmom]

4. wouldn't surprise me n/t

[janterry]

6. The first link discusses their methodology

as does this one:
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

All models make certain assumptions and they disclose these on those pages. If you find a statistical or theoretical weakness, it would be good to make note of it. The researchers are in dialogue with other models and modelers - as well.

[Squinch]

10. Yeah. I know. But they've been estimating 80 to 90 thousand for weeks

That's nuts.

[Dirty Socialist]

5. My guess is

Less than 100,000 will die from this disease. However, there may be a second wave.

[janterry]

7. We have no exit strategy

We need that serological test to see who has been exposed and has likely developed immunity.

[gab13by13]

8. Hey, Trump has given 1.6 million tests,

which amounts to 0.5% of our population. No one would have ever imagined that we would need to test so many people.

How can even the experts make models when the US has done so few tests?

[janterry]

9. We have good data from other countries to

aid in making some of those statistical assumptions.

But we absolutely need more widespread testing. I'm most interested in that serological test. My understanding is that it is less expensive (under 10/per person) and lets us know who has had the illness and who currently is infectious.

[Tribetime]

11. How many of 320 million will be tested

Based on your estimate

[Dirty Socialist]

12. Definitely not enough

[Johnny2X2X]

13. Sunday reported has lagged each of the last 3 weeks

The reporting has been odd every Sunday, perhaps some hospitals don't report their Sunday numbers until Monday. We've seen it 3 weeks in a row only to get smashed on Monday.

[Roland99]

22. Agreed. Let's see how the trend looks after Wednesday

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

14. I don't see have we how anything close to true death rate

When they only test people in a high risk category. Chances are the true death rate is lower.

These are the testing requirements at the hospital in my area.

"At least one of the following is present, potentially attributable to a respiratory viral illness:
Fever
Sore Throat
Cough
Shortness of Breath
Muscle Aches

And at least one of the following:
Is a patient in the hospital
Emergency department patient requiring admission
High risk patients*
Health care workers and first responders

*High Risk is defined as:
Age ≥ 60
Severe chronic lung disease (e.g. asthma, bronchiectasis, cystic fibrosis, COPD, etc.)
Severe heart disease
Immunocompromised (those with weakened immune systems)
On immunocompromising medications (e.g. prednisone, chemotherapy, mycophenolate, cyclosporine, azathioprine, tacrolimus, TNF inhibitors, monoclonal antibodies, etc.)
Living in a congregate setting (e.g. long-term care facilities, group homes, assisted living facilities, jails, shelters, etc.)"

[Ms. Toad]

15. I don't see any state past the peak,

But i see peaks lower and later than they were before. Still hard times ahead for all, just not ration medical resources hard.

[janterry]

16. It's shows that Vermont might be

It's a model, of course. And models are models.

What I worry about most is that there is no game plan. For any state. Once we get past the peak - will testing be ramped up?

We need that serological test brought up to scale NOW.

[Ms. Toad]

18. Ohio is working on it - the same way they worked in advance

so they could take steps the day we had our first case.

Sometime in the next week or so, they will start testing the population at large to get a feel for how representative the current testing is (much of the positive population it catches, in which areas). They are talking about a slow return to normal so that we can back off if cases start rising.

But your basic point is a good one. None of that is possible if we don't have read access to multiple varieties of testing on demand.

[Hela]

17. Lots of traffic yesterday around Indianapolis

I'm worried that people are getting the wrong message and are already easing up on social distancing. Numbers aren't blowing up here yet and people already think we are over the hump.

I went to a Walmart northeast of Indianapolis yesterday to pick up a grocery order, about 10 minutes from my house. The parking lot was slammed and looked like it was close to 80% of a normal weekend day. Traffic was close to a normal Sunday as well -- it was nowhere near as empty as it was 2 weeks ago when our first stay-at-home order came out. People picking up fast food, more than a dozen cars at Walgreens, and all the grocery stores (Aldi, Walmart, Kroger) with very full parking lots.

I have also observed neighbors congregating in groups of 12 or more at the end of driveways, with 8-10 adults talking at what we used to consider a normal distance and 3-4 kids running around with their dog. One woman even had an infant with her -- yikes. Nobody was wearing a mask or gloves or making any effort to stay at least 6 feet away from other people.

I'll be interested to see if Indiana extends the statewide order past April 21 (Indianapolis has one in place until April 30) and what happens to the numbers 2-3 weeks after that.

[StarryNite]

20. I share your concerns.

[Wounded Bear]

19. Basically we're getting to a second order equation from a third...

The increase in the rate of increase has been slowing.

If we can reduce the rate of increase to zero, then we can work on reversing the increase to a decrease.

[Roland99]

23. It's like a car....

You accelerate from a traffic light. Speed goes up quickly

But you see a few blocks down the road the light is turning yellow.

You let up on the gas, but not all the way

Your speed is still increasing but nowhere near as much

Soon you let off the gas and the car coasts at a constant speed for a bit

Then engine braking kicks in and speed starts dropping

[kpete]

21. I like this site better

https://covidactnow.org/

[Hela]

24. Thank you! Great site. n/t

[Squinch]

25. This site is GREAT!

[jimfields33]

26. Very negative site

I mean they have Wyoming at less the a thousand deaths. They’ve had none!

[stillcool]

28. What are you talking about?

They have 0 deaths. What's so negative about numbers?

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

[Pillow talk]

27. it shows my state being a month out.