IMO, the US can celebrate Memorial Day OR the Fourth of July: doing both is unlikely
((Unless a miracle drug is found and quickly mass-distributed))
It took about three weeks per JHU's data on both South Korea and Chinese claims, to get CV spread under some control. BUT SK’s cases were centered around a “church” that the authorities targeted testing on, and despite Chinese claims of starting to get CV under control in three weeks, it took six more before the Wuhan lockdown started to be lifted.
Italy took about 5 weeks since starting to impose limitations before beginning to plateau.
It’s been four weeks since the White House started taking the widespread threat of European CV seriously, less for blocking most travel from GB/Ireland too. Although overall US cases and CV deaths seem to be plateauing at this instant, it may reflect current testing limitations rather than true totals.
IF there is a move at the end of the month to relax, many businesses still will never reopen. But as people slowly forget and “return to normal”, by Memorial Day I expect a push to get beaches and parks to reopen for the holiday weekend.
In my opinion, this would be a BIG mistake. Even if some people continue social distancing, I expect new cases to start doubling every week starting the week after Memorial Day, thus an eightfold increase in three weeks. This almost certainly would lead to cancelling 4 Jul festivities.
Waiting to June to start relaxing could allow celebration of the 4th, but then this brings Labor Day into question, as well as the restart of physical schooling and fall sports.
((We "could" shut down until Labor Day, but many may be afraid of the consequences, given how inefficient the WH has been in getting money to individuals and businesses.))
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