Feel safe to say we've hit linear growth in C19 deaths this week

[Loki Liesmith]

The data from the last few days is going to be clunky because of the usual weekend lag in reporting and Easter but even given that it seems fair to say that we have successfully made the derivative of the new deaths curve constant. Maybe even close to zero. The main questions now for me: 1) how long is the plateau/descent. Long tail gets us to 100k verified dead. 2) what is the temperature effect on R? It looks to be real. Is it big enough to explain the relatively fewer cases in the American South? Can we hope for a summer respite?

This will be an informative week. We should know how good the IHME model is by week’s end.

[Newest Reality]

1. Thanks.

I am wondering about the rural factor, though. It seems that the impact in outlying, rural areas is just starting to get going and that we might anticipate an increase in cases as it spreads out.

There are also several factors involved in the mortality rate for those areas that might indicate an increased death toll, per capita.

[Ohiogal]

2. I thought Florida was hit pretty hard?

[Loki Liesmith]

4. It's not doing great but

It’s on the lower band of high reporting states. As many cases as Louisiana but half the fatality rate.

Louisiana is a special case almost all due to marriage gras.

[intheflow]

9. But we really have no idea how bad Florida is.

Scott is purposefully keeping information close to the vest and limiting testing to give the impression they're doing better than they are.

[mcar]

21. Florida isn't even close to peak

When they report on the test backlog, they only include public lab tests. That's only 10% of the tests that are backlogged - the rest are from private labs.

This is far from over. Florida is a cesspool of infection.

[uponit7771]

12. DeSantis is purposefully suppressing numbers but the hospitalization rate should show up in a week

... or two from the spring break stupitidy.

Looks like from what Cuomo was saying is there needs to be population density or gatherings that kick off CV19 flares

[StarryNite]

3. As a country perhaps

but many of us have not even hit our projected peak.

[Loki Liesmith]

5. I'm going to wager more have than haven't

I think seasonal variation MAY be ever so slightly lowering the R0 in many cases.
Of course that’s the hopeful interpretation.

[onenote]

6. Pretty sure Georgia and Louisiana are part of the American south.

And they have way more cases than, for example, Wisconsin -- which I'm pretty sure isn't as warm as either of those states.

[Loki Liesmith]

7. Correlation

I’m sure you understand that correlation is probabilistic.
I’ll post the regional breakdowns for you when I get a moment.

[HarlanPepper]

8. Great post Loki

[uponit7771]

10. 1.) 3-6 days Italy hasn't gone below 4k avg since 3/19 & looks like they've flattened at high rate,

2.) none, NOLA is hot around Feb and it still kicked off there. There's relative little travel in South America compared to NA, Asia and Europe.

[Loki Liesmith]

11. NOLA Mardi Gras

special case

[uponit7771]

13. Right, Cuomo was saying this morning there needs to be 1. pop density or 2. gatherings and Florida

... and NOLA has a little bit of both where heat doesn't slow down the spread

[Loki Liesmith]

14. See the following

Link to tweet

?s=21

[uponit7771]

16. Test lag, this isn't just NOLA its NY too (link) and it's say in your link that there's a lag in

... testing.

I swear the testing has been criminal

https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/albany/story/2020/04/11/new-york-hospitals-could-soon-completely-run-out-of-swabs-needed-for-coronavirus-testing-1274903

[Loki Liesmith]

18. I don't believe that accounts for it

As this is percentage of tests returning a positive result. I’m not clear on how lag in tests returns affects that number as it’s normalized by number of tests. Are positive tests being returned quicker than negative? There may be other reasons they I’m not seeing of course.

[uponit7771]

19. It did for Italy, they're back in the low to mid 4s. If the test STOP for a day or two then there's

... going to be a dip in positives test for that day.

They can either stop processing test or stop taking them

In the link in the tweet it explains a lag in the "slow down" isn't in deaths its in positive test and its on the chart from covid tracking

4,5,6 and it was also at the end of March ... hmmmm, doesn't look like NOLA is tracking test taken vs positive numbers either the two have to stay calculated together

[Johnny2X2X]

15. Wait for more than a few days.

There’s too many states going up and down and there’s 50 different approaches. Give it more than 3 data point in this case to spot trends.

[uponit7771]

17. THIS !!!! Italy looked like it dipped to 3k over 2 days 3rd day ... boom, back at 4,500 ish

[FBaggins]

20. It has been more than a few days

Generally speaking, positive tests can be expected to peak before hospitalizations... which in turn can be expected to peak before ICU demand... which in turn can be expected to peak before deaths.

Deaths may be only on a three-day decline (though, to be fair, it really close to a week if you average out the curve) - but the peak for new cases in the US appears to have been back on the 4th.

The OP is correct. By the weekend, we could have enough data to validate their (adjusted) projections.

Which, of course, says nothing about what happens when various flavors of unlocking occur. My understanding is IHME is close to releasing models predicting that.