= new reply since forum marked as read
on the world...she’s the logical person to slap him back down again. I don’t know...
in lethality is for the total death count (and also NOT 2 to 4% of the entire country's population) for the entire country. Lets say 100,000 end up dying nationwide in the USA. The study said that that would increase by 2 to 4% (OZ said 3% which is incorrect), meaning 102,000 to 104,000 total deaths in the whole country (versus 100,000)
People trying to figure out how many schoolchildren there are and then thinking 2 to 3% of THAT number will die are way off. If that was the case, the adult lethality would be INSANE, 25%, 35% maybe.
Schoolchildren will never remotely approach a 2 to 3% mortality rate with this virus. BUT, they will be 'superspreaders'. That is why Sweden (insanely in my opinion) is keeping all the under high school level schools open. They want all the kids to get the virus and thus greatly aid in achieving herd immunity. There have been extremely few cases of schoolchildren deaths here in Sweden (again almost all our schools under high school level have been open the whole time), other than ones with massive pre-existing health issues.
Again
the study does NOT say 2 to 4 % of the total schoolchildren NOR 2 to 4% of the total population as a whole will die in addition to who already will die.
It says the actual final death count will increase 2% to 4 %
this entire confusion is the tweet's fault, as they made a massive blunder in their language/framing of the entire thing (the tweet thread makes me weep at the lack of critical thinking skills)
and please
very important caveat- I AM NOT CONDONING THIS ACTION, I am only correcting a huge error
here is the study
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30105-X/fulltext
and here is some more context about school closures from The Guardian
'More harm than good': the case for and against closing schools during the coronavirus pandemic
Two epidemiologists discuss why schools in Australia are not yet being closed – and if it’s even needed
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/more-harm-than-good-the-cases-for-and-against-closing-schools-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic#maincontent
In NYC (which did not shut the schools until a little over 3 weeks ago, when the deaths were already soaring)
as of April 14th, there have been THREE total deaths of 17 year olds and younger, out of 6,839 total deaths up to that day
The day they closed the schools there were already over 13,000 cases and 125 deaths (plus all the ones not labelled COVID at that point as testing was scarce as hell) in just the city proper, and remember COVID-19 has up to a 3 week incubation period.
