is the 1st real chance to oust Graham this year. If this wasn't a presidential election year, Graham would be toast. Which is a big reason why Graham is now trump's BFF. There is not a big secret trump is holding over his head. trump won the state by 14% and graham was polling at 51% pre golfing. That went up to 74% post golfing. His support insured that there would not be a republican primary challenger at the least and no republican primary at best. His approval ratings are now between 38-43%
Harrison is polling well against him. I believe this will be the year where Independents will decide the election and Graham is polling poorly with them. 60% of the I's view him as some what or very unfavorably. Overall 53% have an unfavorable view of Graham.
https://www.changeresearch.com/post/south-carolina-post-and-courier-poll-december
RCP average polling #'s for 2014 had Graham's average at 46% and his D challenger at 28.3. Graham won 54.5 to 38.9 Graham picked up 8.5% and his challenger picked up 10.8% That was his closest reelection.
In SC the total primary voters were 430,081 voters. In 2016 that number was 368,877, an increase of 61,204 voters. Will it be enough to make a difference?
Sept 2019 had Graham ahead in polls by 7%. Last December a poll had Graham leading Harrison by 2%. On March 25th, a different polling company had Harrison leading Graham by 4%.
If Graham only picks up 8.5% of the votes over his poll numbers and Harrison picks up 10.5 over where he is polling, it might not be enough for Graham to win. Did I mention this is SC?
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