Model from the University of Washington on when it might be safe for states to open

[mnhtnbb]

Modelers at the University of Washington are starting to tackle one of the questions on everyone’s mind as the arc of the novel coronavirus pandemic appears to be flattening in places like Washington state: When will it be safe to begin easing up on the restrictions keeping the virus in check?

According to the UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Washington could cross that threshold the week of May 18. Estimates for other states range from as early as May 4 to as late as the end of June, based on the local status of the epidemic.

The latest projections are an outgrowth of IHME’s ongoing work to forecast the scope of the epidemic nationwide — in every state — and in several other countries. They come as the group’s work, which has been influential from the White House to state houses coast-to-coast, is attracting criticism from some disease experts.

In a media briefing Friday, IHME director Dr. Chris Murray cautioned that the potential “opening dates” represent a first stab and are likely to change as more information comes in from individual states. Among the key variables are whether deaths are likely to drop off sharply once they peak, or whether — as seems to be happening in New York — they will plateau and decrease slowly.

The map




For the entire article: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/uw-coronavirus-model-says-washington-state-can-start-safely-reopening-the-week-of-may-18/


I looked to see if this had previously been posted, but didn't find it. Since I live in North Carolina, this looks like great news. Not so good for the states like Florida and Texas that are determined to relax restrictions WAY too soon.

And, of course, this is all data dependent and could change in the next couple of weeks.

[zackymilly]

1. NC here too. Good to see our state that color. n/t

[mnhtnbb]

7. I have a reservation for a house in the mountains

from the end of June through mid July. Have to decide whether to cancel by the end of this month if I want my money back.

I'm going to contact the owner next week and see whether she'll be lenient in her cancellation policy if by June we're back to stay at home if the policy is lifted in May and we start to see cases rising again. It wouldn't be difficult to isolate at this house, but part of my plan was to visit some of the small mountain communities and if cases are returning, well, I'd be better off staying home.

[pstokely]

41. I wouldn't book anything non refundable for the next 2 years

nt

[gopiscrap]

2. so much for trump

wanting to open it all up on Monday

[SoonerPride]

3. Good lord. Look at those assumptions and caveats

Those aren’t even in the offing.

Widespread testing?
Contact tracing?

I appreciate their attempting to show when the economy could even start to resume wider activity but why just throw in variables that aren’t even possible?

It seems like a list of hopeful thinking.
Or magical thinking.

[Pobeka]

5. +1 n/t

[The Magistrate]

6. Indeed, That Makes It More Aspirational Than Otherwise

[Duppers]

37. +100

[uponit7771]

43. +1,

[Livluvgrow]

4. From what I can see

It looks like a lot of self inflicted wounds. Oh well, I guess they always strive to be the deepest red at everything they do.

[Alacritous Crier]

8. Florida sure isn't the right color.

It's going to be a bloodbath.

These look extremely optimistic to me.

[NRaleighLiberal]

9. seems politically and bu$$ine$$ optimistic.

I am in a NC county with over 100 confirmed cases and 11 reported deaths. I am one county from Greenville SC which is a hot spot. As a 64 year old, I am going to follow data and intuition, not greed and profit and political motivations. My wife is in full agreement.

In other words, I smell rose colored bullshit

[mnhtnbb]

12. You have a much higher concentration of cases and deaths per population

than we do in Wake County.

This article in the News and Observer has some great maps showing the disparity of cases/deaths by NC county. It's easy enough to look up county population and figure the prevalence.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242108636.html

The key to that map in the OP developed by the University of Washington is the quote " The threshold the model uses for easing restrictions is when infections drop below one per million people." The question is, does that apply to every county in a state?

[NRaleighLiberal]

14. I suspect it is due to a more aged population...issues are in

nursing homes and assisted living places here.

[EleanorR]

10. MA on par with Oklahoma, Georgia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Iowa and the Dakotas

What the heck is going on there?

[smirkymonkey]

13. I would expect that we would not be opening up until much later, but I'm surprised about

the other states. They must be expecting a late wave of infection or something. Even though our governor is a republican, he is a decent person and a reasonable, intelligent man and I trust him to do the right thing. I think he will keep us shut down through May at least.

[EleanorR]

18. looks like Baker issued stay at home advisory not order and it's not being taken seriously

When Baker issued the statewide stay-at-home advisory on March 23, he said, “I do not believe I can or should order US citizens to keep confined to their homes for days on end. It doesn’t make sense from a public health point of view, and it’s not realistic.” Yet here we are in April and there are still too many Massachusetts residents who are failing to maintain social — read, physical — distance and are continuing to congregate and socialize, and non-essential businesses that are still operating. Every unnecessary social interaction increases transmission of the coronavirus, adding to the delay in resuming normal life and costing lives. Pickup basketball games are ongoing, forcing officials in cities like Boston and Newton to attach barriers to block the hoops. Vehicle traffic to the Plug Pond recreational area in Haverhill had to be closed after fishermen were found congregating at the pond in large numbers. There have been reports of soccer games and other gatherings on BOS:311.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/04/opinion/thanks-wearing-mask-now-stay-home/

[smirkymonkey]

21. People will always be idiots. And the rest of us will suffer because of them.

I have not left my apartment for over a month now and don't plan to, unless my company forces us to come back to the office, which I don't think they will do for a while.

[EleanorR]

28. I wish Baker would do more

As that article mentions, an advisory is simply not strong enough language right now. Baker should have issued an order and should be following up to ensure it's enforced. Telling people it's simply not practical to tell them to stay home?

I just messaged with a friend who lives in the area. He said they got a robocall just a few days ago from their town reminding people not to congregate in the parks or use the facilities to play tennis, basketball, or other sports. Jesus, now I'm worried for him.

[smirkymonkey]

34. So do I. I was under the illusion that people in Boston would take this more seriously

just because we are more educated and liberal, but there are always pockets here and there that don't fit into that demographic. I haven't been out, but as for my building, people are taking it very seriously. Not leaving their apartments, and when they do, wearing masks, gloves, distancing, only one in the elevator at a time, etc. So far we have no cases here. Everyone is being as considerate as possible. I am pretty sure that goes for the neighborhood as well.

I think there are a lot of young people who just don't take this seriously yet and have no concept of social responsiblilty. Baker and LEOs should really start cracking down on them because they are still able to spread the virus whether they are falling ill themselves or not.

[EleanorR]

35. Little they can do given Baker hasn't issued a stay home order

I don’t think they can enforce a suggestion.

[Igel]

15. Size doesn't matter.

It's not how big the peak is, it's when the peak is and how it tails off.

If you get down to near zero predicted cases it doesn't matter if your peak is 500 dead per day or 5 dead per day.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

11. I don't care. I'm not coming out until there's plenty of hospital space, PPEs,

testing of whoever wants a test, and some effective treatments. I know a vaccine is a long way out but we can at least hope for something that treats the symptoms in the nearer future. I'm staying home in the meantime no matter when my state eases the stay at home order.

[Igel]

19. There's a gradient between lock-down and no restrictions.

It's a large one.

Texas is unlocking down in trivial but potentially useful ways soon, but extending the lockdown in others. For example. Schools? Closed till the end of the school year. State parks? Open, but you do the social-distance tango and no groups of more than 5. With rangers there to enforce it. Non-essential businesses can open in a week or two, but customers are not allowed inside--the stuff you buy is brought outside. (That last bit provoked outrage from some--although why it's okay for restaurants but bad for other kinds of stores nobody could actually explain.)

Even the proposals for removing (most of the) lockdown provisions still calls for social distancing in restaurants, which will please nobody--size restrictions and every-other-table seating. (One idjit called for requiring face masks, which sort of misses the point of going to a restaurant.) Same, potentially, for theaters and sports events, but policing that would be a bear. Wearing face masks in public and practicing social distancing, minimizing the number of trips and staying home or working from home when possible are usually still put into the loosening-lockdown box.

Ill-will's causing a lot of people to misinterpret everything that can be, conflating reasonable suggestions with what non-reasoning idjits say, and then claiming that those who aren't like us only hold the most unreasonably interpreted of unreasonable suggestions.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

20. Of course - assuming people follow even the looser restrictions.

I am making a choice to stay at home because there are too many people who won't. Have a look at Sweden's numbers - they have some loose restrictions and recommendations but otherwise decided to let people use their own judgment, and they are now approaching Italy in terms of deaths in proportion to their population.

[durablend]

38. You said what I'm wondering too...

"One idjit called for requiring face masks, which sort of misses the point of going to a restaurant."

I don't understand how restaurants (or any sort of eating/drinking places) are going to function in places where masks are required in public. Either you wear them, which seems illogical, or don't and just spread the corona around the restaurant while eating.

[uponit7771]

45. Those restrictions went horribly in Italy

[pstokely]

42. are you at a higher risk or live with someone who is?

might not be a bad idea

[Squinch]

16. The IHME model is crap. Here are experts explaining why:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/

From the article:
According to a critique by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London, published this week in Annals of Internal Medicine, the IHME projections are based “on a statistical model with no epidemiologic basis.”

[mnhtnbb]

22. Thanks for posting the article.

With a novel virus, it is not surprising that models and projections are all over the map and much is dependent upon human beings staying away from each other and taking precautions like hand washing.

This particular virus is NOVEL. It is new. We don't know crap about it--except for what we are slowly learning. Maybe it didn't get the memo that it was supposed to behave like other viruses? I am not surprised there is disagreement among researchers and epidemiologists, to the extent that some are belittling the methods of others.

Think about the science of predicting the path of a hurricane. During hurricane season there are squiggly lines showing projected paths that change daily, and sometimes hourly. Why wouldn't there be different models for predicting cases and deaths for a virus? We already are seeing differences in the mortality rates by sex, by age, and by race. I've seen some early studies that suggest that blood type might even play a factor in morbidity/mortality for the coronavirus.

We really know very little at this point.

I do think the map is optimistic. But again, " The threshold the model uses for easing restrictions is when infections drop below one per million people." All bets are off if that threshold isn't reached.

[Squinch]

23. But apparently, there are 2 accepted effective ways of tracking new illnesses and

epidemics. This model uses neither of those.

Think of having all those accepted models for predicting hurricane paths. Then think of a group that comes along and uses observations of leaves blowing in the wind instead of any or all of those models.

That's what IHME is doing.

[mnhtnbb]

26. OK. So, maybe after this is all over

it will be proven ineffective. Or maybe a new model will be demonstrated to be useful?

Like I said, maybe COVID-19 didn't get the memo that it was supposed to only behave according to two models.

[Squinch]

30. No new diseases do get that memo. Yet those models have been the ones that proved

most effective in the course of studying new diseases.

This model does not take epidemiological information into account, according to the experts quoted in that article. That is odd when one is modeling an epidemiological disaster.

[pstokely]

46. is there a more accurate model?

or are they all crap? or is the data crap?

[mnhtnbb]

48. One can only confirm how accurate the model is

after the fact. Think about tracking models for hurricanes. If the data inputs change, the track changes.

This is a novel virus. Will it behave like other viruses? We have no way of knowing. The University of Washington model is new. Will it turn out to be better than the accepted models? The only way to know is after the fact.

What the model does suggest is that you can't just open the entire country up at one time. Some areas of the country will be ready for an easing of restrictions and stay at home directives before other areas.

[LAS14]

17. Has anyone heard any discussion about Massachusetts?

It was one of the earliest to have a cluster but it's one of the latest to be safe to open up. It's right up there with NY and NJ in number of cases but it's never mentioned on TV. I would think there'd be some interesting stories, given the concentration of prestigious health care institutions.

tia
las

[mnhtnbb]

24. There is a story about a homeless shelter in Massachusetts that was tested.

And they found a large number of people with positive results, but NO symptoms. It's kind of blowing minds, epidemiologically.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213309292

[smirkymonkey]

33. Mass. reports 156 new coronavirus deaths, nearly 2,000 new cases.

I haven't been out, so I can't say what's going on in the streets, but in my building, everyone is wearing masks, distancing, riding the elevator one at a time, taking every precaution. We have no cases here so far. There are definitely areas of the city where people are completely ignoring all suggestion, however.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/18/nation/closely-watched-controversial-model-suggests-coronavirus-now-peaking-mass/

"They now expect deaths to peak on Monday, and say today may be the height of impact on hospitals, cresting well short of their total capacity.

The figures, if accurate, would suggest that the much-anticipated “surge” of cases here is peaking, though the model predicts it will be at least June before it’s safe to relax social distancing in Massachusetts and start re-opening life here.

The peak is a key moment, public health officials say, because it’s when hospitals are most likely to be overwhelmed by coronavirus patients. So far, hospitals here appear to be holding up, Governor Charlie Baker said Saturday.

“Generally speaking,” Baker said. “People feel pretty good about where we are with respect to [hospital capacity]. That’s been an important part of how we manage our way through this.”

Baker was speaking at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center in the Seaport, one of several large facilities around the state that have been converted to field hospitals to treat and house coronavirus patients who no longer need hospital-level care but can’t yet go home." [more at link]

[LAS14]

36. I've been watching one website where it looks like deaths are lagging...

... behind cases relative to other states. I'm not sure I'm reading it right, but if I am, I figured it might be because of top notch health institutions.

[W_HAMILTON]

25. Whaaaaat?

"The threshold the model uses for easing restrictions is when infections drop below one per million people."

What I am misunderstanding about this? We are to believe that all those states will have less than ONE person infected per ONE million people by these dates? I somehow doubt that.

[mnhtnbb]

29. I suspect they mean new infections.

In North Carolina we had 281 new cases reported today. We have a population of about 10.5 million.

So, in order for that timeline to go into effect for us, we should be experiencing no more than 11 new cases/day. Will we get there by the first week or two of May? I don't know. It does seem optimistic.

[W_HAMILTON]

31. But still...

I highly doubt we will be seeing NEW infections in the single digits in these states (e.g., most of them have populations below ten million, therefore less than ten new infections) anytime soon. And what would the time period for that even be? New infections per DAY? I just can't fathom that occurring anytime soon.

Either I am just misunderstanding their whole premise or maybe they are only taking into account "this wave" of the virus and not taking into account future waves that may begin. I don't know, but I do know that I don't believe for one second that these states will be looking at new infections in the single digits each day in just a few weeks. I just don't see how that is even possible.

[mnhtnbb]

32. I just edited my answer with NC data as example.

[uponit7771]

47. None of the started have an adequate testing regime outlined by anyone ...

... this is horrible.

The dates represent the modelers’ best estimate of when the daily new infection rate in each state will drop below one per 1 million people.

[nolabear]

27. Another month in WA. But if that's what it takes...

Since yesterday I’ve learned of three more friends with cases. Not terrible but one is very elderly and was in memory care. Now in hospital and very confused. But so far not awful symptoms.

[Duppers]

39. Who financed this study? nt

[pstokely]

40. many states are lifting before it says it's safe

and it doesn't say when the time might be right for metro areas, in MO is lifting theirs in early may, KCMO is keep theirs until Mid-May, STL City and County have theirs that they hope they'll be able lift sometime in May

[uponit7771]

44. " as long as testing is widely available.." really?!?!