CV-19 peaks don't work the way many people think they do

[Shermann]

What's being portrayed by the WH and even the MSM is that the peak varies from state to state, and all we have to do is hunker down like it's Passover and weather it in isolation. After that, Americans get their much-deserved attaboys from Mike Pence and then we get this bitch back open for business again.

In reality, it works like this:

Bucket A) R-naught < 1 : This is apparently where the US is right now. There is a latency between infection and symptoms where the virus is eventually detected. So what we are doing is waiting out this false peak which is the delayed result of a previously higher R-naught value exponential climb. This should take a few weeks, which matches reality. After that, an exponential reduction in active cases will occur, but never effectively reaches zero.

Bucket B) R-naught > 1 : Peaks work very differently here. These are real peaks that are limited by herd immunity. Here you are resuming the logarithmic rise that was seen pre-lockdown. The peak is determined by the R-naught value and varies somewhat, but in all cases results in 100's of millions of infections in the US.

So if you are in Bucket A, remaining there doesn't really "accomplish" much of anything strictly in terms of total infections if you eventually move to Bucket B. You are just delaying the inescapable mathematical certainty that follows.

Bucket C) R-naught near 0 : This is the vaccine scenario.

South Korea was able to remain in Bucket A after easing their lockdown due largely to widespread voluntary use of tracking apps. It is entirely unclear if this remarkable success can be reproduced in a Western country.

I don't recall seeing South Koreans protesting any restrictions...

[CottonBear]

1. The tracking apps are mandated by South Korean law.

I don’t see that same model working here, although I, personally, would welcome it.

[Shermann]

2. I believe there is mandatory tracking if you test positive in SK

but the apps are opt-in otherwise.

[CottonBear]

3. You have to download the app when you are tested.

Then, your results are texted to you. If positive, you must quarantine. The app also alerts you if you are near an infected individual.

[Shermann]

7. Right. I think they are also adding wristbands now.

No talk of wristbands here that I've heard.

I wonder if that would fly here?

Conservative think they are invincible and would never get one so they may look the other way.

[yardwork]

4. One of my coworkers is from South Korea.

The approach in South Korea has been organized, humane, and based on science.

We don't have that in the U.S. because our federal response has been the opposite of organized, humane, and scientific.

[empedocles]

5. Succinct

[dawg]

6. Unless most of us have already had it and don't know it ...

I can't think of any reasons why the number of infections and deaths shouldn't resume their steady climb just as soon as we ease restrictions.

For that matter, here in Georgia, I doubt we've even manged to reduce R0 to <1 to begin with. We aren't testing many people and lots of cases (and deaths for that matter) are not making their way into the reported totals.

[CottonBear]

9. I'm in Georgia too. Gov. KKKemp has done almost nothing to get more testing.

There is some sort of phone screening process through local Health Departments that can possibly lead to testing.

There is no widespread testing, tracking and contact tracing in the largest state east of the Mississippi River.

I live in a community with a huge percentage (greater than 30%) poverty rate, a large elderly population, and many homeless people. It’s a blue community, and our local government was way ahead of Kemp regarding local shelter in place ordinances and school closings.

However, I have neighbors who not only refuse to social distance, they become enraged to the point of tears if you tell them to stay away from you and your child. These are older and middle aged white people, who include retired music teachers, current public school teachers, among others. They are all hanging out together in the evenings drinking cocktails at our community garden/terrace area. One neighbor has been wearing an Instacart t- shirt. My son saw him walk up and shake the bare hand of an HVAC serviceman! That is terrifying: he’s shaking hands and then working for Instacart.

[Shermann]

8. NY is supposedly below 1

But keeping it under 1 with our testing and contact tracing system with mass transit back online will be interesting.

[uponit7771]

11. Cuomo says its at .9 and doesn't give any MOE, I don't know why SK wont work in the west? Stay

... at home or get tracked ... I'll get tracked after intense testing campaign

[uponit7771]

10. We could be at SK place right now we'd need oversampling first and then those who want to be out

... need t be tracked etc.

I don't think people who want to go back to normal are going to balk at the tracking

[hvn_nbr_2]

12. I'd probably understand the post better if you told me what the words mean

What does "R-naught" mean?
What sort of "buckets" are these?

[Shermann]

13. Links

R-naught is discussed here:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-contagious-r-naught-average-patient-spread-2020-3

Bucket is just a (dated?) term I use to mean a specific categorization or characterization.

[cbdo2007]

14. Agree, had to comment on this on a family members facebook this week....

He was mad that they keep moving the peak back and by doing so kept moving back the date when we would get back to normal cause he's excited for baseball season to start (lol).

I had to let him know that actually going over the peak was just first step but that it's probably a good estimate to add in 3-4 times as long as it took to reach the peak, for us to then slowly come down from it, matching infection numbers from before all the way down. It's not like a big hill on a roller coaster or a specific thresh hold and we just have to make it past X date...we need to expect to be living like this for the next 3-6-12 months and get used to it. i.e. there's no baseball season this year.

[Shermann]

15. The MSM hasn't really caught on to the narrative of "false peaks" yet.

Maybe they will. I'd really like to hear Fauci get asked about this specifically.

Enough with the questions about Trump's Lost Month. Snap out of it Acosta.

The DU should send one of our best and brightest undercover to infiltrate the OANN as a White House reporter. Then we can grill the Task Force about r-naught values and false peaks.

[IronLionZion]

16. American exceptionalism will prove to be exceptional

in how high we peak the curve and how may times it peaks and how many refuse to go along with common sense

[Shermann]

17. I have to say a common sense solution isn't obvious to me

Eventually the economic carnage will scare people more than the virus does. We may already be there.

Oil crashing under $2 / barrel today is bonkers.

[IronLionZion]

18. Look at how other countries have done it and see their outcomes

the US has the amazing advantage of seeing real data on how various solutions have worked out for South Korea, Sweden, Denmark, New Zealand, India, etc.

Many of our rural red states still haven't closed. Any reopening of our states and cities needs to be planned out carefully with observation and data collection to adapt accordingly through an iterative phased approach. Many workplaces need to establish social distancing while still allowing remote work for the vulnerable to stay home. Companies can leverage their commercial supply chains for disinfectant and cleaning.

We need testing, contact tracing, and more. People need insurance or a way to pay for testing and treatment. It's a very bad thing for all of us when people avoid testing/treatment because they can't afford it.

The GOP plan is die quickly. The Dem plan should be better thought out.

[Shermann]

19. Way too early to tell what success they will have

Early indications don't look that encouraging to me to be honest.

[Shermann]

20. Also when will enough N95 masks be available to the general public here in the US?

Masks that work would surely lower the r-naught values a bit more than breathing through socks.

Ask the question Acosta!

[DallasNE]

21. But There Are Other Unknowns

Can those that survive CV-19 get it a 2ns and 3rd times. If they have immunity, how long do they maintain immunity?

We have to hope for Bucket C.