At the peak of the hostage crisis Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan by almost thirty points!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

When he couldn't get the hostages back he lost by ten points. That's not a reflection on Jimmy Carter. He had choices, almost none of them were good:





That's how ephemeral crisis bumps can be. How will Trump fare when he's already trailing his opponent by mid to high single digits in the midst of a crisis?

Re-election campaigns are referendums on the incumbent. If voters like the job the incumbent is doing they rehire him or her. If they don't, they don't.

[Ferrets are Cool]

1. An education, for those who do NOT know, about why Raygun won in 1980

Jimmy Carter did not lose...Raygun did what repugs do best....he STOLE the election. This is not a conspiracy theory. Watch the first 4 minutes.

[musette_sf]

13. + 1

[PSPS]

2. Then Reagan did his quid pro quo with the Iranians.

"I understand you want to release the hostages. Do me a favor, though. Keep the hostages longer, until I'm elected, and I'll sell you arms."

[Ferrets are Cool]

14. See post #1

[beachbumbob]

3. corporate america threw their weight against Carter and tha tled to his loss more than anything

else. Carter was a threat and they eliminated his possible reelection

[Ferrets are Cool]

15. Nope. It was 100% guid pro quo

[Aristus]

4. There were at least two other factors.

There was a challenge in the primary by Ted Kennedy, who should have known better, knowing it would weaken Carter in the general.

Independent John Anderson, an otherwise admirable liberal Republican, whose run siphoned the votes of disaffected liberal Democrats away from Carter.

[uponit7771]

7. Damn Carter had a lot going against him, didn't know about Johnson

[yardwork]

5. That's a very interesting bump in the chart for Reagan at the very end.

I didn't realize that Reagan surged like that at the very end. Interesting.

[Yavin4]

6. That was the debates.

Reagan asked, "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" That question devastated Carter. Debates are extremely important when you want to unseat an incumbent.

[uponit7771]

8. Trump won't debate, M$M should give Biden the podium alone

[OnlinePoker]

9. A lot of elections can turn on a single phrase or act

Think Howard Dean's scream or James Carville's "It's the economy, stupid".

[Yavin4]

10. Or George the Elder looking at his watch during one of the debates. n/t

[mitch96]

11. And then there was the Kennedy/Nixon debate ... the makeup debate

Kennedy had sweat reducing make up on and Nixon didn't. Under the glaring hot lights, Nixon was sweating like he was being grilled by a cop... He just looked like a shifty criminal... which he was...
m

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Pat Caddell...

Pat Caddell, Jimmy Carter's pollster, said it was the realization the hostages weren't coming back that caused the dam to break the final weekend.

[Ferrets are Cool]

16. See post #1. It had nothing to do with the debates.